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Tropical Hurricane Jose

Well, the guy on Facebook, swears up and down it is going to landfall at SC/NC.
 
Storm5 said:
So all models have it wrong ?

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Almost all of the models are initializing Jose's vortex too far north & east, especially the European and the CMC, which not surprisingly are on the eastern side of the guidance envelope atm. At the very least this information should make you more skeptical of how far their solutions bring Jose OTS, because some of these errors are very significant...On the case of the Euro & CMC they're occasionally exceeding 50 nautical miles... On the other hand, given recent shifts in the UKMET, we should probably be looking for some sort of compromise here, similar to what the GFS has been advertising
 
Webberweather53 said:
Almost all of the models are initializing Jose's vortex too far north & east, especially the European and the CMC, which not surprisingly are on the eastern side of the guidance envelope atm. At the very least this information should make you more skeptical of how far their solutions bring Jose OTS, because some of these errors are very significant...On the case of the Euro & CMC they're occasionally exceeding 50 nautical miles... On the other hand, given recent shifts in the UKMET, we should probably be looking for some sort of compromise here, similar to what the GFS has been advertising
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In other words most likely scenario.... FG is good! Right through the uprights
 
metwannabe said:
In other words most likely scenario.... FG is good! Right through the uprights
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Perhaps but the steering flow is highly uncertain and fickle and if the upper level ridge to the north & northeast of Jose is any stronger than forecast, or if Jose's LLC continues to remain south of NWP forecasts (& initializations) it could be major consequences for the US or Atlantic Canada because this pattern is highly unstable and non-linear. Those from the Carolinas up thru Atlantic Canada and Bermuda should be watching this closely...
 
Storm5 said:
Forgot to post the 06z GEFS
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Congrats DCA!
 
whatalife said:
Oh my word! I'm so tired of talking about hurricanes. I would love to talk about this winter but the writing is on the walls for that too. This weather sucks


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Don't worry JB will be along soon to discuss the Brazilian

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Jose should have no problem setting and probably smashing the record for most ACE produced by a "J" storm. Only Joaquin stands in his way @ 29.24 points, and assuming the NHC holds Jose's intensity @ 65 knots on the 11am advisory, he'll only be 1.5 points back of Joaquin... @ ~27.78 points
 
Webberweather53 said:
Jose should have no problem setting and probably smashing the record for most ACE produced by a "J" storm. Only Joaquin stands in his way @ 29.24 points, and assuming the NHC holds Jose's intensity @ 65 knots on the 11am advisory, he'll only be 1.5 points back of Joaquin... @ ~27.78 points
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Well, if the GFS is right, Jose will rank in the top 10 longest lived Atlantic storms too, lasting about 24 to 25 days. What a weird path on all the models last night too.
 
Stormlover said:
The guy on facebook....well, I guess that settles it, lol
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Surprisingly he seems at least half way legit. He is a weather guy, not like he is just some random. He did say Irma would go East and North when others were saying it would go west and NW. I am not sure I follow him on this though. Seems to be sensationalizing in regards to Jose.
 
I looked at some records for the longest tracking Tropical Cyclone and l found one called Storm 3 in 1899 it lasted 27.75 days. I'm not sure of the date Jose crank up but the GFS has it going for at least 2 more weeks.
 
sigwx said:
I looked at some records for the longest tracking Tropical Cyclone and l found one called Storm 3 in 1899 it lasted 27.75 days. I'm not sure of the date Jose crank up but the GFS has it going for at least 2 more weeks.
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Jose formed on the 5th, so it would have to last a dew days into October to beat it.
 
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