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Tropical Hurricane Jose

Jose has an open door to approach or landfall in the SE. However I think the remnants from Irma will lead it ots

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I think it's way too early to definitively say one way or the other, much less have more confidence in any particular solution that Jose will go out to sea or not. Normally, tiny short waves like this embedded within large scale ridge axes trend weaker in the models as verification approaches while the ridge does not. As was the case with Irma recurvature, it's becoming very likely that if this recurves east of the US, it will not be very easy here and is liable to be painfully slow as the steering flow over Jose remains relatively weak for the foreseeable future. Aside from all the nuances in the mid latitude steering flow, we will also have to see if Jose doesn't undergo a center relocation to the south at some point. Definitely a very legitimate possibility when you're dealing with a modest and small hurricane with a relatively more unstable circulation. Plus, with the moderate-high northerly shear displacing most of the convection and cyclonic potential vorticity to the south of Jose's current LLC, the asymmetrical heating distribution will increase the chances the center relocates or a new center forms entirely underneath the deeper convective canopy downshear of the current one. Unfortunately, most global models can't resolve these aforementioned inner core non linearities, which ultimately matter a lot when you're in a pattern characterized by weak steering flow. This essentially means that even very small perturbations and errors like this can grow upscale even faster than usual...
 
Webberweather53 said:
I think it's way too early to definitively say one way or the other, much less have more confidence in any particular solution that Jose will go out to sea or not. Normally, tiny short waves like this embedded within large scale ridge axes trend weaker in the models as verification approaches while the ridge does not. As was the case with Irma recurvature, it's becoming very likely that if this recurves east of the US, it will not be very easy here and is liable to be painfully slow as the steering flow over Jose remains relatively weak for the foreseeable future. Aside from all the nuances in the mid latitude steering flow, we will also have to see if Jose doesn't undergo a center relocation to the south at some point. Definitely a very legitimate possibility when you're dealing with a modest and small hurricane with a relatively more unstable circulation. Plus, with the moderate-high northerly shear displacing most of the convection and cyclonic potential vorticity to the south of Jose's current LLC, the asymmetrical heating distribution will increase the chances the center relocates or a new center forms entirely underneath the deeper convective canopy downshear of the current one. Unfortunately, most global models can't resolve these aforementioned inner core non linearities, which ultimately matter a lot when you're in a pattern characterized by weak steering flow. This essentially means that even very small perturbations and errors like this can grow upscale even faster than usual...
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In other words, restock your supplies, folks ... you may need 'em ... o_O
 
pcbjr said:
In other words, restock your supplies, folks ... you may need 'em ... o_O
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In other words I wouldn't put much stock in either an OTS or landfall camp yet. Even though most nwp models keep Jose offshore for now, this can give unseasoned weather forecasters a false sense of security because these model suites are very under dispersive. Thus, they often poorly represent and estimate the "true" spread and likelihood of a particular solution or set of solutions & often leaves many in a tailspin wondering how the models could have changed so much... I think once Jose emerges from its cyclonic loop and begins a more climatologically normal heading (~ 3 days from now) we will probably have an idea on the viability of an OTS or landfall solution. Regardless, rough surf, rip currents , & at least minor coastal erosion is pretty much a guarantee at this point for the southeastern US esp the Carolinas
 
Webberweather53 said:
In other words I wouldn't put much stock in either an OTS or landfall camp yet. Even though most nwp models keep Jose offshore for now, this can give unseasoned weather forecasters a false sense of security because these model suites are very under dispersive. Thus, they often poorly represent and estimate the "true" spread and likelihood of a particular solution or set of solutions & often leaves many in a tailspin wondering how the models could have changed so much... I think once Jose emerges from its cyclonic loop and begins a more climatologically normal heading (~ 3 days from now) we will probably have an idea on the viability of an OTS or landfall solution. Regardless, rough surf, rip currents , & at least minor coastal erosion is pretty much a guarantee at this point for the southeastern US esp the Carolinas
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Webb - all I was saying is that folks shouldn't be complacent ... it's a real possibility (not a probability as of now) that folks may need to hunker down again ... regret any confusion from this end, but Man, I haven't slept in 2 days and here I am reading and pontificating ... :eek:
 
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pcbjr said:
Webb - all I was saying is that folks shouldn't be complacent ... it's a real possibility (not a probability as of now) that folks may need to hunker down again ... regret any confusion from this end, but Man, I haven't slept in 2 days and here I am reading and pontificating ... :eek:
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Oh I agree with everything you said I was just trying to make myself clear to others who are reading the forum and are relatively new the uncertainties at hand here and overall likelihood of any given scenario. While we may only be 5-7 days away from feeling sensible impacts (if any) from Jose, the forecast uncertainty in this case is so much larger than it ever was for Irma. Purely from a standpoint of uncertainty and forecast confidence, we should be treating this as if Jose was really an 2-3 extra days away from landmasses further west compared to what we'd normally expect
 
Webberweather53 said:
Oh I agree with everything you said I was just trying to make myself clear to others who are reading the forum and are relatively new the uncertainties at hand here and overall likelihood of any given scenario. While we may only be 5-7 days away from feeling sensible impacts (if any) from Jose, the forecast uncertainty in this case is so much larger than it ever was for Irma. Purely from a standpoint of uncertainty and forecast confidence, we should be treating this as if Jose was really an 2-3 extra days away from landmasses further west compared to what we'd normally expect
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Great minds, this one excluded and not being a part of the club, think alike ... ;)
 
While the position of Jose itself continues to trend more favorably (& slower) on the GFS, as one would expect from canonical NWP tendencies, the ridge to his north & northeast is becoming stronger w/ each successive run and the s/w that is supposed to steer Jose OTS is trending weaker...

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I don't think we're really going to know with Jose until the loop is completed but nonetheless it's getting ready to play with the fish in this run I think.
 
I really don't trust the GFS on any of this anymore. UKMET + Euro handled the situation well with Irma.
 
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