Tropical Hurricane Gert
- Thread starter Brent
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I know this is a technicality that doesn't matter so far out in time, but my provider's maps for the record show it barely touching the coast at Cape Canaveral, FL, (about half the eye onshore) between hours 240 and 252 before barely going back offshore and then later hitting far S SC. Much of this portion of the track from central FL to S SC looks like that of Matthew's.
The fact that the CONUS threats have varied by about 4 days just over the last 24 hours of GFS runs (8/13-17) and with threats from FL to N.E. tells me that it will be quite a while before we get a good feel for where this might go, assuming it does form (likely).
The fact that the CONUS threats have varied by about 4 days just over the last 24 hours of GFS runs (8/13-17) and with threats from FL to N.E. tells me that it will be quite a while before we get a good feel for where this might go, assuming it does form (likely).
Yeah the GEFS mean continues to back southwestward in the longer term, this system may end up plowing into the Caribbean instead of passing north of the Greater Antilles knowing its canonical poleward biases especially with eastern MDR TCs.
I think it's pretty telling the GFS may be too far NE when, even with a stronger tropical cyclone, the GFS is still trending southwestward in the longer term...
I think the GFS might be overdone but I also think the Euro is just as, if not more in the wrong here. 99L is currently exhibiting a double barrel structure w/ 2 competing centers of vorticity, the Euro strengthens and focuses most of its attention on the eastern lobe of vorticity in association w/ 99L and tries to develop that, however almost all other guidance is suggesting the western lobe becomes dominant and that's the one that develops. I actually side with all the other guidance instead of the Euro here because TAFB is going with the western vorticity max, and the eastern lobe has been fairly devoid of convection of late, whereas the other one seems to be doing quite well. The mishandling of which vorticity max becomes dominant is important because if the eastern one wins out like the euro implies then 99L will have to contend with more mid level dry air to its northwest, cooler SSTs, etc. however if the western lobe wins as the GFS/CMC implies and as what seems to be more likely atm, then its chances for genesis and intensification go up appreciably because when it develops, there's less beta advection out of the monsoon trough, therefore it stays further south in the moist, unstable air , and higher underlying SSTs for a longer period of time...
There's too much going for 99L atm for it not to develop as the Euro is imploring, and again the fact that it's developing the eastern lobe associated with 99L instead of the western one is a big reason why I'm not buying its solution at all...
The difference in initialization between the GFS & Euro is pretty stark here. CIMSS analysis suggests the GFS is more likely to be correct in its initialization w/ more dominant western lobe and stronger vorticity maximums overall. The Euro's look almost unrealistically too weak.
We also have to keep in mind the European model has completely whiffed on every eastern MDR tropical cyclone thus far this season, the fact that it's showing so much as a tropical depression or very sharp tropical wave axis likely warrants our attention...
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Models are all over the place. So to say this model is more right or telling then another is just foolish talk. The general idea though is that the tropics must be watched in the coming weeks for some type of development of a system.
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8AM update from NHC
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
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Definitely true. The Euro hasn't quite been on its game this year, but if both these storms develop, it was the first to sniff them out. Intensity wise, it has seen systems, just too weak. If you want a middle ground, the CMC and UKMET are running tropical storms. Otherwise, the Euro and NAVGEM are more focused on Invest 90L while the GFS seems to be extremely strong, likely too strong (but you never know). The HWRF is with the GFS and the HMON-PARA is with the Euro, but was with the CMC.
Taking a look over the SSTs over the Atlantic.
7-day SSTs anomalies, take note that the tropical wave is most likely to become a tropical storm once over the warmer waters.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif
7-day SSTs analysis, waters are warm sure enough. Pockets of around 30c (about 86f).
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anal.gif
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7-day SSTs anomalies, take note that the tropical wave is most likely to become a tropical storm once over the warmer waters.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif
7-day SSTs analysis, waters are warm sure enough. Pockets of around 30c (about 86f).
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anal.gif
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Contrarily I don't think it's foolish at all to make a claim that one model is superior over the other in a particular instance. While the models seem to be all over the place, there are definitely clues at hand which group of solutions is more likely to be closer to verifying and identification of stereotypical model biases, recent performance, initialization, and the relative amount of run to run variability and dispersion in a particular suite lends subtle hints that increase the probability of correctly identifying which model(s) can be weighed more or less in a forecast... I think it's definitely advantageous to look for these clues as opposed to giving up and saying we don't know...
Seems like all the models are agreeing on the same path relatively.
