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Tropical Hurricane Gert

12Z Euro: even weaker than the 0Z Euro at hour 48 and the 0Z Euro didn't even do much with it. So, considering that as well as the 12Z model consensus to this point, I don't expect the 12Z Euro to do much with this.
This run may produce nothing at all. The other low seems a bit weaker and close to land. In no way do I trust how weak the Euro has it. It has been so bad this year it only has shot down storms, except that it has shown both systems enough that it is worth watching both.
 
This run may produce nothing at all. The other low seems a bit weaker and close to land. In no way do I trust how weak the Euro has it. It has been so bad this year it only has shot down storms, except that it has shown both systems enough that it is worth watching both.
Well we sure as hell cant trust the gfs with its strength either . Its been horrible as well in the strength department

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If it wouldn't have been shredded by the islands, we would have seen a development if it went north or south of them into probably a decent hurricane. I would say the CMC put out a pretty realistic run in terms of strength.
Yeah thats why this still bears watching. To much land that run. Plenty time to go with this
 
Contrary to what many assume wrt 99L having an opportunity to intensify south of the Greater Antilles in the Caribbean, this actually wouldn't transpire unless 99L was a very robust tropical cyclone, therefore, the only opportunity it has for intensification is if it passes well north of the Greater Antilles, even a close swipe by Hispaniola would severely disrupt any TC circulation that's not encapsulated by a complete eyewall... As the easterly trade winds are squeezed in between Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and South America trade wind divergence is observed in the central Caribbean, which often completely will rip apart the lower level circulation of a weak tropical cyclone or at least delay genesis of a tropical wave until it reaches Jamaica's longitude. Later in the season towards October or so however, as a trough develops in the means over eastern North America, this typically cuts the trades to some extent and lessens the impact of this trade wind divergence (which likely helped Matthew last season)... There are rare exceptions (Charley (2004), Dennis (2005), Gustav (2008), etc.) where TCG and intensification of a weak-very weak TC can occur in this area of the basin, but 99L will almost certainly not be fortunate enough to join these rare exceptions...
This nice graphic overlaid with Earl from last year shows the relative dip in genesis between the longitudes of Puerto Rico and Jamaica in the Caribbean.
Screen Shot 2017-08-04 at 3.38.28 PM.png
 
The GEFS inches south.
99L_gefs_latest.png

And so does. everything else.
99L_tracks_latest.png
 
Contrary to what many assume wrt 99L having an opportunity to intensify south of the Greater Antilles in the Caribbean, this actually wouldn't transpire unless 99L was a very robust tropical cyclone, therefore, the only opportunity it has for intensification is if it passes well north of the Greater Antilles, even a close swipe by Hispaniola would severely disrupt any TC circulation that's not encapsulated by a complete eyewall... As the easterly trade winds are squeezed in between Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and South America trade wind divergence is observed in the central Caribbean, which often completely will rip apart the lower level circulation of a weak tropical cyclone or at least delay genesis of a tropical wave until it reaches Jamaica's longitude. Later in the season towards October or so however, as a trough develops in the means over eastern North America, this typically cuts the trades to some extent and lessens the impact of this trade wind divergence (which likely helped Matthew last season)... There are rare exceptions (Charley (2004), Dennis (2005), Gustav (2008), etc.) where TCG and intensification of a weak-very weak TC can occur in this area of the basin, but 99L will almost certainly not be fortunate enough to join these rare exceptions...
This nice graphic overlaid with Earl from last year shows the relative dip in genesis between the longitudes of Puerto Rico and Jamaica in the Caribbean.
View attachment 785

hence the term east-central Caribbean "graveyard". Again, only in very rare cases, late in the hurricane season (around October), or unless a powerful tropical cyclone enters this area (Dean (2007) for ex), a weak tropical cyclone or tropical wave will very likely not intensify and/or weaken/disintegrate in this area of the Atlantic.
 
Just an observation from a casual viewer/lurker ...
It seems some are disappointed that the most recent runs weaken whatever may be out there, as though that is a bad thing, dashing hopes for catastrophe in some else's back yard ...
Just sayin' ... :confused:
 
Just an observation from a casual viewer/lurker ...
It seems some are disappointed that the most recent runs weaken whatever may be out there, as though that is a bad thing, dashing hopes for catastrophe in some else's back yard ...
Just sayin' ... :confused:
Unfortunately that bad part bout liking this hobby... people want excitement . Ne myself am a huge tornado monger...chasing for years.... enjoy the rush and excitement it brings... even if it's in my backyard .... sorry... but no one wishes bad stuff on people's property n such...
 
Just an observation from a casual viewer/lurker ...
It seems some are disappointed that the most recent runs weaken whatever may be out there, as though that is a bad thing, dashing hopes for catastrophe in some else's back yard ...
Just sayin' ... :confused:

^^^^THIS^^^^


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Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS ******FWIW****** has 99L going along the northern coast of Hispaniola and remaining somewhat more intact instead of going just below it as it did on the 12Z GFS and nearly dissipating. I think Eric said that going just below it or along the south edge is more detrimental for its ability to remain intact vs scraping it on the northside. So, I think that comparing the 12Z and 18Z GFS runs is a good illustration of what Eric was saying.
 
18z GFS is an improvement from it's 12z run. The flow isn't flat over the northern Atlantic and the flow isn't fast. Another realistic run for 99L again this time eh?

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Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS ******FWIW****** has 99L going along the northern coast of Hispaniola and remaining somewhat more intact instead of going just below it as it did on the 12Z GFS and nearly dissipating. I think Eric said that going just below it or along the south edge is more detrimental for its ability to remain intact vs scraping it on the northside. So, I think that comparing the 12Z and 18Z GFS runs is a good illustration of what Eric was saying.

Yeah it definitely is... However even so, scraping on the north side will still do some serious damage to the system because the inflow will be taking in descending air off the high terrain of Hispaniola, which adiabatically compresses/warms and sinks into the circulation, ultimately disrupting any associated convection, upward motion, and the lower level wind fields... It needs to put a little distance between itself and Hispaniola and PR to the north to avoid facing detrimental impacts from getting to close to these large islands, esp hispaniola
 
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