ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yep, prepare for horror.
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Tropical Hurricane Gert
- Thread starter Brent
- Start date
pcbjr
Member
We are within the 210 hours of Uhh Ohh nowYep, prepare for horror.
DO NOT LIKE ...
Though it is showing up north of 20N (hopefully it'll go poleward before hitting anyone)
Really need to watch the rest of the dynamics for a day or two before going into "Oh Sh*t" mode (pardon the French)
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Anyone notice that each GFS run, this storm gets faster?
I agree on the uh oh part. I think 18Z either hits NC/SC or scrapes it with the trough coming in that suddenly appeared.We are within the 210 hours of Uhh Ohh now
DO NOT LIKE ...
Though it is showing up north of 20N (hopefully it'll go poleward before hitting anyone)
pcbjr
Member
Agree and that trough may be over-played ... dadgum thing on 18Z is getting too close ...
The trougj has been there, just strengthens late his run
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
It appears that I predicted the run by saying "How about a nice NC hurricane" If this thing keeps speeding up, it could very well end up further south and hitting land. Scrapes the coast afterwards.
If this thing keeps speeding up, it could very well end up further south and hitting land. Scrapes the coast afterwards.
Hello.... oh my
Landfall across eastern NC....
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Absolutely destroys the Outer Banks.
pcbjr
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
I think this is the lowest I have seen the GFS show in recent memory
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It appears that I predicted the run by saying "How about a nice NC hurricane"
It's honestly not that far away from hitting the Greater Antilles or being a monstrous Caribbean Cruiser, and knowing the canonical poleward GFS biases here, even if we take its intensity of 99L verbatim (which may be overdone) it still may not pass north of the Greater Antilles/PR. We shall see though, long ways to go...
Good news is nothing supports this idea of a monster. Even the gefs ensemble members that develop dont support this.
Speaking of the sub 940 that this run showed
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Speaking of the sub 940 that this run showed
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yep, if it is overdone, it would have less of a pull northward and could be further south. The UKMET has a track worth looking at as well, seeing it went into the Caribbean at 0Z. Plus, Invest 97L/90L was predicted by the GFS to go north initially when it was way back by Africa.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Yeah I don't think we will see a repeat of this run at 00z (strength wise)
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We also need to keep in mind here that the GFS ensemble members are run at a much lower resolution than the operational and therefore may not be able to adequately resolve the inner core of 99L whereas the full resolution GFS at/before 240 HR may be able to, thus even a weak hurricane/strong TS on a GEFS member doesnt carry the same meaning as the operational but i certainly agree that the GFS is potentially overdone here...
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The GFS has that bad habit of overdoing things. Sadly and strangely, I think the CMC is closer than any of the other models, except the UKMET, which the two seem to be on the same page intensity wise.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Last edited:
ForsythSnow
Moderator
HMON-PARA and HWRF both think the GFS is right on intensity. What is worse is that the HWRF-PARA is now the HWRF, and the HMON-PARA is brand new.
whatalife
Moderator
Who cares...we're talking about fantasyland imo. Plus! I have no desire to see a hurricane unlike some on this board
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