Tropical Hurricane Gert

[Webberweather53]

Quick question Eric. What do they use to analyze the tropical Cyclonic energy in which gert is going to contribute to the ACE index. Also, does NHC estimate on the winds speed have any affect on the validity of the data imputed for the index?

Yeah they use satellite intensity estimates based on the Dvorak technique that uses infrared satellite images to estimate tropical cyclone intensity. These intensities often have errors on the order of 15 knots or so (and they're appreciably higher for rapidly intensifying/decaying tropical cyclones such as Gert). Yes it does have an impact on the validity of the data for the ACE index, in fact the stronger Gert gets, the error contribution to ACE increases linearly because the index is a function of the maximum sustained wind squared (divided by 10000) in knots every 6 hours.

 

[ForsythSnow]

We will see what the NHC says at 2. Up to 97 knots max, a low end cat 3. When the AdjT and CI balance out, does that mean the strengthening slows or stops, or does that just mean they are balancing out?

 

[ForsythSnow]

We will see what the NHC says at 2. Up to 97 knots max, a low end cat 3. When the AdjT and CI balance out, does that mean the strengthening slows or stops, or does that just mean they are balancing out?

Now 99.6 knots, or 115 MPH. Keeping in mind this is the max, the NHC has to have Gert strenghen at 2 unless they do the stupid thing of continuing to not issue an advisory A and wait until 5.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Now 99.6 knots, or 115 MPH. Keeping in mind this is the max, the NHC has to have Gert strenghen at 2 unless they do the stupid thing of continuing to not issue an advisory A and wait until 5.

120 MPH max. Let's see what the NHC does.

EDIT: Nothing. Absolutely nothing.

 

[Webberweather53]

CI still rising considerably, now up to 105 knots (120 mph)...

 

[ForsythSnow]

Looks to have peaked.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Seems to be up to 85 knots with a pressure of 970mb, or about 100 mph.

 

[Metwannabe]

120 MPH max. Let's see what the NHC does.

EDIT: Nothing. Absolutely nothing.

I am completely baffled by this..... if they don't make a change on the 5 pm advisory this will be one of those that get updated or adjusted later, makes no sense imo

 

[ForsythSnow]

I am completely baffled by this..... if they don't make a change on the 5 pm advisory this will be one of those that get updated or adjusted later, makes no sense imo

It will be updated to a 100mph Cat 2 with a pressure of 970mb, unless the info updates before then.

 

[Metwannabe]

It will be updated to a 100mph Cat 2 with a pressure of 970mb, unless the info updates before then.

Right on cue...
5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 16
Location: 38.7°N 62.4°W
Moving: NE at 31 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

 

[Brent]

Gert is now stronger than any storm in the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, so there's that...

 

[ForsythSnow]

Peaked at 105 mph with a pressure of 967mb.