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Tropical Hurricane Gert

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Brent, Aug 3, 2017.

  1. metwannabe

    metwannabe Moderator Supporter

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    Bye bye.... although it may be a touch closer than the 0z run, weak system too
    [​IMG]
     
  2. Brent

    Brent

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    Maybe we can at least get Gert over with I hate the name lol
     
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  3. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Clearly this system is a something again since it is up to 50% and the HMON and HWRF models are running it again. The CMC is still going strong.
     
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  4. metwannabe

    metwannabe Moderator Supporter

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    Yes maybe a skirt by Gert and get it over with....
     
  5. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Gert is also a female name somehow o_O.
     
  6. metwannabe

    metwannabe Moderator Supporter

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    EPS still shows development and OTS... notice a naked swirl on vis sat earlier that now has some storms firing right over top, just enough to keep it "alive" until it can reach more favorable environment for some development
     
  7. metwannabe

    metwannabe Moderator Supporter

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    Let's hope the HWRF just don't have a clue... which is highly possible Lol

    [​IMG]
     
  8. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter

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    I thought the same way until I later realized this is short for "Gertrude."

    Edit: Then why not name it "Gertrude"?
     
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  9. metwannabe

    metwannabe Moderator Supporter

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    Hmmm this is interesting...
    "Gert is a mainly masculine given name (short form of Gerard) with some female bearers (short for Gertrude). [1] Pronunciation is typically /ˈχɛrt/ in Afrikaans and Dutch, /ˈgɛrt/ in Danish, German, and Swedish, and /ˈɡɜːrt/ in English.

    Since 1993 no one in Sweden has been baptised as Gert according to the Swedish Bureau of Census,[citation needed] so the name is becoming increasingly rare. In 2010 around 12,000 in Sweden had the name as their first name according to the same source. Gert is most common in Sweden among males over 50 years of age. Around 400 females in Sweden have Gert as their first name according to the Swedish Bureau of Census."
     
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  10. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

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    With the northeastern convection starting to wane it'll be interesting to see what the new convection near what looks to be a LLC can do tonight.

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  11. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

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    Convection firing . Wonder if it can maintain [​IMG]


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  12. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter

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    Last edited: Aug 9, 2017
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  13. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter

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    Last edited: Aug 9, 2017
    WeatherWatch and whatalife like this.
  14. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

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    This guy is really trying to put urself together

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  15. WeatherWatch

    WeatherWatch

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    I just checked the ATCF, some memebers are bringing in 99L close to the SE coast but still off shore.

    One memeber brings in 99L just off of the NC coast up through far southeastern NJ. I wouldn't say for sure the EC is out of the clear at this moment. It will be interesting to see the spaghetti plots look like once the wave is southeast of the Bahama's.



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  16. WeatherWatch

    WeatherWatch

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    18z 12KM NAM

    [​IMG]

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  17. metwannabe

    metwannabe Moderator Supporter

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    Showed some life overnight and still hanging on this morning, back up to 50% also..... either way all signs point to this staying well offshore. But hopefully it can get named at some point, I know one texan that would be thrilled to see Gert out of the way Lol
     
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  18. metwannabe

    metwannabe Moderator Supporter

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    The CMC continues to be all in for development and a close pass....
    [​IMG]
     
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  19. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    Wind shear has been dropping like a rock over 99L the past 24 hours, now down to ~ 5 knots... Definitely going to be a window of opportunity for TCG the next 36-48 hours while shear remains relatively low in advance of a burgeoning subtropical ridge axis that will attempt to impart increasing northerly-northeasterly shear onto 99L as early as late Sunday...
    wg8shr.gif
     
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  20. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Certainly not as much as the HWRF showed at 12Z. Lol what an outlier. It seems to have spin in it, so it's survived quite a lot so far.
    [​IMG]
    NAM also says bring it on, but it's just a mesoscale model.
    [​IMG]
     
  21. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

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    Looking fairly healthy this morning

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  22. metwannabe

    metwannabe Moderator Supporter

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    Yeah not sure about a llc but it certainly looks good, darn near TD.... will be interesting to see if it develops if the GFS ever latches on to it, only model not showing development, it's been completely pathetic wrt to the tropics since the so called upgrade.
     
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  23. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    Hurricane hunters are currently slated to investigate 99L by 19z tomorrow unless something changes or they cancel...
    I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
    NEAR 31.5N 72.0W AT 14/1900Z.
     
  24. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    99L doesnt appear to have a well defined, closed circulation just yet, low level clouds on the southern end of the convective mass are streaming from south to north, although the mid level circulation is definitely becoming more organized and wave axis has sharpened appreciably...
    [​IMG]
     
  25. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    NHC increases chances for TCG from 99L to 80% in 48 hours and the next 5 days
    "Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area located about 250 miles northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands have become better organized during the past several hours, and visible satellite images suggest a low-level circulation may be forming. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Sunday while the system moves northwestward. The low is forecast to turn northward, then northeastward away from the United States early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent."
     
  26. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter

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    If Gert were to form from 99L within the next couple of days, I'd have to call the first half of August as active/well above average in the Atlantic basin, especially considering that the 2nd half is much more active climowise. That would make it the most active 1st half since 2012.
     
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  27. Brent

    Brent

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    Hard to believe gert is imminent just doesn't feel like it's been a busy season so far lol

    Ascat just out looks suspicious
     
  28. Brent

    Brent

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    TD 8
     
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  29. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter

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    Good, quick catch! :cool:
     
  30. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Here we go again... starting the page in the morning.
     

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