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Tropical Hurricane Gert

The way we've had east coast troughs coming and going this summer, there will be smaller than normal window of opportunity for the African wave train to slip one in and threaten the SE imo. But all it takes is 1.
 
NCSNOW said:
The way we've had east coast troughs coming and going this summer, there will be smaller than normal window of opportunity for the African wave train to slip one in and threaten the SE imo. But all it takes is 1.
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Activity looks to slow down during the first of September . Hopefully we get through this month without a hit


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99L looks slightly more healthy on tonight's 0z run of GFS vs. it's 18z run. The ridge is trying to still shread it apart while the wave is still trying to stay consolidated.

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Gert is such a terrible name if this does become a real threat lol

Just getting that out of the way
 
Brent said:
Euro going crazy, near hurricane at day 6

Going to stay east of the US though this run
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It sure is, time is closing in, we're now closing in on the 7 day window (if euro holds true.) CMC still has the wave as well but it keeps it well off shore.

Depending on how far south the trough digs down, the wave may have a quick shot at effecting the SE coast (GA/FL) and then the trough sweeps it northeastward towards the Carolina's (coastal Carolina's) then back out to sea. Just a thought that could possibly occur based from the Euro and CMC.


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Last edited:
Brent said:
Euro going crazy, near hurricane at day 6

Going to stay east of the US though this run
Click to expand...
Close enough for the pucker factor along the OBX if Euro holds.... hard to tell but looks like the EPS might be just a tick west of the op, would love to see the eps member tracks
 
I don't think there is much doubt that trough will eventually give a north pathway IF 99L actually develops but just how far west before that occurs is a huge question. As Larry pointed out due to the OBX of NC sticking out like a sore thumb (not exactly his words lol) it will be the most vulnerable IF.. IF.. IF. Currently still very elongated and somewhat bi-polar... looks like a low level circulation on southern end that is just now trying to get some pathetic t-storms going and then that cluster to the north, not sure if there is also a spin there or not. IF it develops which of these areas becomes dominant and how late does it develop will go a long way in determining just how close to NC it may or may not get
 
99L looks more healthy this morning than it did yesterday evening. There's convection going on and some outflow. It doesn't really have a circulation though.




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12z CMC - the trough sweeps the wave off to the NE keeping the wave off shore.
Will be interesting to see how 99L evolves. I can see it has gotten pretty quiet around here after the GFS let go of 99L. Lol.
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Glad to see how the GFS was SOOO right a few days ago...It's now SOOO clueless...That model is just amazing!


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haha the Euro is all in

Weenie alert :weenie::weenie:

The trough is coming though I bet it kicks out
 
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