Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Quick question Eric. What do they use to analyze the tropical Cyclonic energy in which gert is going to contribute to the ACE index. Also, does NHC estimate on the winds speed have any affect on the validity of the data imputed for the index?
Yeah they use satellite intensity estimates based on the Dvorak technique that uses infrared satellite images to estimate tropical cyclone intensity. These intensities often have errors on the order of 15 knots or so (and they're appreciably higher for rapidly intensifying/decaying tropical cyclones such as Gert). Yes it does have an impact on the validity of the data for the ACE index, in fact the stronger Gert gets, the error contribution to ACE increases linearly because the index is a function of the maximum sustained wind squared (divided by 10000) in knots every 6 hours.