Tropical Hurricane Gert

[ForsythSnow]

Not quite sure what happened, but it looks like Gert won't even become a cat 2 now.

 

[Metwannabe]

Not quite sure what happened, but it looks like Gert won't even become a cat 2 now.

Might be making a recovery....almost see the eye on vis possibly

 

[Webberweather53]

Gert ingested dry air yesterday which has halted intensification overnight, however Gert will spend about 24-36 hours in an environment characterized by a robust equatorward outflow channel into the subtropical jet and into the entrance region of a 140 kt+ jet streak in the mid latitude jet which can often lead to rapid intensification due to the exceptional amount of forced ascent.

 

[Storm5]

Looks like it's intensifying again


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[ForsythSnow]

Looks like Gert is now tied for the strongest storm of the year pressure wise. Down to 981 mb and winds up to 80 mph. The dry air must be out now.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Winds remain the same, pressure 979mb.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Up to 85 mph. Max back to 100mph.

 

[Arcc]

Eye clearing quickly with strong convection in the eyewall. Here comes the run at major.

 

[Metwannabe]

Eye clearing quickly with strong convection in the eyewall. Here comes the run at major.

 

[Metwannabe]

Ryan Maue‏ @RyanMaue
GOES-13 satellite IR Automated Dvorak technique instantaneous raw T 6.0 (115-knots) for rapidly intensifying Hurricane Gert. GOES-16 T 6.1

9:59 AM - 16 Aug 2017

 

[Webberweather53]

Unadjusted t numbers are up to about 6.0 (which equates to a 115 KT category 4 hurricane)...

 

[Webberweather53]

Ryan Maue‏ @RyanMaue
GOES-13 satellite IR Automated Dvorak technique instantaneous raw T 6.0 (115-knots) for rapidly intensifying Hurricane Gert. GOES-16 T 6.1

9:59 AM - 16 Aug 2017

Lol took the words right out of my mouth

 

[ForsythSnow]

Unadjusted t numbers are up to about 6.0 (which equates to a 115 KT category 4 hurricane)...

If that's true, the HWRF wins this storm. It also means that strengthening is insane.

 

[Metwannabe]

Very small eye on that image, very indicative of rapidly intensifying TC

 

[Webberweather53]

NHC keeps Gert's intensity at 90 mph at the 11am advisory. Lol what... So it hasn't strengthened at all since 5am? Yeah i call --------...

 

[Webberweather53]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Yeah umm this is definitely strengthening...

 

[ForsythSnow]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Yeah umm this is definitely strengthening...
View attachment 863

Looks like the NHS is following the CI vs the T. Seeing that uptick should mean an upgrade at 2.

 

[Webberweather53]

Looks like the NHS is following the CI vs the T. Seeing that uptick should mean an upgrade at 2.

There's usually a lag between the CI and the T numbers, the appearance of a 20nm wide eye shrouded by a cirrus deck on satellite a few hours ago should have warranted at least a 5 KT increase in the winds in spite of satellite estimates not increasing until the last second, because there's no doubt its organization has improved in the past 6 hours since the 5 o clock advisory. Like I said, i call bs...

 

[EastAtlwx]

Quick question Eric. What do they use to analyze the tropical Cyclonic energy in which gert is going to contribute to the ACE index. Also, does NHC estimate on the winds speed have any affect on the validity of the data imputed for the index?

 

[ForsythSnow]

There's usually a lag between the CI and the T numbers, the appearance of a 20nm wide eye shrouded by a cirrus deck on satellite a few hours ago should have warranted at least a 5 KT increase in the winds in spite of satellite estimates not increasing until the last second, because there's no doubt its organization has improved in the past 6 hours since the 5 o clock advisory. Like I said, i call bs...

Should be a Cat 2 per the CI now. Definitely had a lag as you said.