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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

Webberweather53 said:
If I had a dollar for every time someone said "oh it'll trend NW" I'd put Bill Gates to shame... While this is a stereotypical trend, (as was Larry's research wrt cold 2mT bias in ECMWF & GFS this winter) it doesn't work in every situation (& here may be a good example of this) and aside from other obvious, egregious invalid assumptions that interlace this statement, I guess it doesn't bother anyone at all that our most progressive models are also the furthest north & west on Saturday?
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Easy big fella..... I know it don't happen every time but it's all I got and I figure since it screws me over more times than not maybe one time it will work in my favor. Lol... However I do appreciate the explanation
 
Webberweather53 said:
If I had a dollar for every time someone said "oh it'll trend NW" I'd put Bill Gates to shame... While this is a stereotypical trend, (as was Larry's research wrt cold 2mT bias in ECMWF & GFS this winter) it doesn't work in every situation (& here may be a good example of this) and aside from other obvious, egregious invalid assumptions that interlace this statement, I guess it doesn't bother anyone at all that our most progressive models are also the furthest north & west on Saturday?
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I have noticed that often, when you have a vortex in the vicinity of the 50/50 area and there is blocking/ridging through Greenland, systems progressing through the SE do not so readily correct back north...or at least not with the same vigor. There was no ridging up there in January, to my recollection. With that system, we did indeed get the "NW trend".
 
pcbjr said:
or to quote my favorite musicians - you could arm a town the size of Abilene
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Loser
If I had a dollar for every ace I've drawn
I could arm a town the size of Abilene
Don't you push me baby cause I'm moaning low
You know I'm only in it for the gold
....
Come to Daddy on an inside straight
I got no chance of losing this time
No, I got no chance of losing this time
 
Shawn said:
Eric what do you think about the cold push and the more Southern zones? I had mostly given up on this thing here through the Central Midlands, but I've seen all kinds of various modeling now that wants to have a swath of Wintry (sleet, snow, mix) through here over the last couple of days as things have trended less wet to the North. Even the lackluster runs for parts of NC (that had a big hit) have been showing it the last day or so.
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I definitely think areas along/north of I-20 in SC stand a much better chance than they did even a day or so ago of at least mixing w/ snow &/or sleet, although accumulations if any will presumably be light at best (<1"), but it's still unlikely atm until you reach the SC/NC border counties imo, at least until later tomorrow when our system is properly sampled and initialized by the global and high resolution guidance... The arctic airmass infiltrating the SE US is ridiculous for this time of the year, you'll be hard pressed to find many examples of a 1050mb high over the Dakotas in March, or even during the middle of January. The overall longwave pattern has progressively amplified almost unanimously in every model the past several days which has allowed our s/w to slow down and the oncoming airmass to become more settled in and the Ontario/Great Lakes vortex to be more aptly timed our southern branch disturbance. Oth, this has given time for the next 2 shortwaves in the northern branch of the jet to catch up and attempt to partially phase w/ it, which promulgates more non-linearity that slows our incipient s/w even more & so on & so forth. Hence, the usually less progressive UKMET and ECMWF immediately pounced on the idea of a mediocre incident storm, with a more consolidated area of low pressure emerging from the NE GOM and bombing out near or just off the Carolina and mid-Atlantic coasts, a legitimate possibility that could also feasibly bring more wintry precipitation as far south as portions of central North and perhaps even South Carolina on Monday, but this is far from being set in stone and exceptionally unlikely, for now anyways...
 
Rain Cold said:
I have noticed that often, when you have a vortex in the vicinity of the 50/50 area and there is blocking/ridging through Greenland, systems progressing through the SE do not so readily correct back north...or at least not with the same vigor. There was no ridging up there in January, to my recollection. With that system, we did indeed get the "NW trend".
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Agreed and sometimes the "nw trend" isn't actually a northward slp location adjustment but just a slightly more expansive precip shield which is certainly a possibility. Anywho... I fully expect the GFS to give us some false hope here in a few minutes lol
 
Webberweather53 said:
I definitely think areas along/north of I-20 in SC stand a much better chance than they did even a day or so ago of at least mixing w/ snow &/or sleet, although accumulations if any will presumably be light at best (<1"), but it's still unlikely atm until you reach the SC/NC border counties imo, at least until later tomorrow when our system is properly sampled and initialized by the global and high resolution guidance... The arctic airmass infiltrating the SE US is ridiculous for this time of the year, you'll be hard pressed to find many examples of a 1050mb high over the Dakotas in March, or even during the middle of January. The overall longwave pattern has progressively amplified almost unanimously in every model the past several days which has allowed our s/w to slow down and the oncoming airmass to become more settled in and the Ontario/Great Lakes vortex to be more aptly timed our southern branch disturbance. Oth, this has given time for the next 2 shortwaves in the northern branch of the jet to catch up and attempt to partially phase w/ it, which promulgates more non-linearity that slows our incipient s/w even more & so on & so forth. Hence, the usually less progressive UKMET and ECMWF immediately pounced on the idea of a mediocre incident storm, with a more consolidated area of low pressure emerging from the NE GOM and bombing out near or just off the Carolina and mid-Atlantic coasts, a legitimate possibility that could also feasibly bring more wintry precipitation as far south as portions of central North and perhaps even South Carolina on Monday, but this is far from being set in stone and exceptionally unlikely, for now anyways...
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As always ... ;) Thanks, Webb!
for goodness sake - this drive-in movie is getting better and better, even though the concession ran out of popcorn ... LOL
 
pcbjr said:
As always ... ;) Thanks, Webb!
for goodness sake - this drive-in movie is getting better and better, even though the concession ran out of popcorn ... LOL
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Please tell me you still have some coke left


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GFS on the surface not too terrible different so far through 45. Here we go.
 
Shawn said:
TN all snow.
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Heaviest precip looks to escape most of NC. Heaviest shoved down with 850's too warm for most of SC.
 
Nice run for Tennessee, although it ends as a mix for the southern half. This one, at least so far, only has light snow in NC.
 
Mountains should do okay.
 
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