• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

SD said:
We just need 30 miles northwest

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
If it stays strong enough long enough and we have any syblance of a slp it will shift nw some....you're golden. Just remember January started shifting late and eventually too much.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Well then. The para nam is cray cray.
wellthen.png
 
Just for whatalife. Here is the 4km NAM as things are starting to unload. Talk about living on the edge for our back yards.

livedangerously.png


livedangerous.png


image.png
 
SD said:
We just need 30 miles northwest

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Really, no one thinks the jackpot is going to end up NW of what the models show like it does 99% of the time?
 
I would be more inclined to buy this but it's also the NAM & it's super progressive after 48 HR... Unless the CMC, UKMET, and ECMWF come back on board I'm not really buying this ----. Granted, global models tend to underestimate the northern extent, and intensity of precipitation in isentropic upglide/overunning and not to mention it would be pretty classic for us to get this appetizer, super suppressed, mediocre event then a monster another day or so later so I guess it's still believable to an extent
 
Webberweather53 said:
I would be more inclined to buy this but it's also the NAM & it's super progressive after 48 HR... Unless the CMC, UKMET, and ECMWF come back on board I'm not really buying this ----. Granted, global models tend to underestimate the northern extent, and intensity of precipitation in isentropic upglide/overunning and not to mention it would be pretty classic for us to get this appetizer, super suppressed, mediocre event then a monster another day or so later so I guess it's still believable to an extent
Click to expand...

I'll start buying it if it's showing this at tomorrow's 00z


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Eric what do you think about the cold push and the more Southern zones? I had mostly given up on this thing here through the Central Midlands, but I've seen all kinds of various modeling now that wants to have a swath of Wintry (sleet, snow, mix) through here over the last couple of days as things have trended less wet to the North. Even the lackluster runs for parts of NC (that had a big hit) have been showing it the last day or so.
 
Shawn said:
Eric what do you think about the cold push and the more Southern zones? I had mostly given up on this thing here through the Central Midlands, but I've seen all kinds of various modeling now that wants to have a swath of Wintry (sleet, snow, mix) through here over the last couple of days as things have trended less wet to the North. Even the lackluster runs for parts of NC (that had a big hit) have been showing it the last day or so.
Click to expand...
damn I can't shut down -- Shawn - what a perfect question - and what a great example of why this place is so positive ... :)
 
If I had a dollar for every time someone said "oh it'll trend NW" I'd put Bill Gates to shame... While this is a stereotypical trend, (as was Larry's research wrt cold 2mT bias in ECMWF & GFS this winter) it doesn't work in every situation (& here may be a good example of this) and aside from other obvious, egregious invalid assumptions that interlace this statement, I guess it doesn't bother anyone at all that our most progressive models are also the furthest north & west on Saturday?
 
Probably getting shut out in my neck of the woods here in GA (Athens). Good luck to everyone else!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Live mode has been enabled on this thread as the GFS & GGEM come in. No need to refresh if you are a registered member and logged in. Just give the page a refresh to get it started.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top