sidenote: Alaska is having a humdinger of a winter...
I swear when it's a -pna, and +AO my depression is worse. No kidding. My meds aren't as effective.Depression is my current stage right now
Perfect storm track but no supply of cold air ?
850’s were fine.,2m’s in upper 30’s..if it happened, it would be of the heavy March varietyActually drops some snow in TN/N.AL. That could be a big deal. The EPS members have been honking a storm in that period off and on for days.
That's an awkward track for a low.Actually drops some snow in TN/N.AL. That could be a big deal. The EPS members have been honking a storm in that period off and on for days.
That's an awkward track for a low.
Yep. Would be cold and dry. But let's get the cold in here first and worry about precip later.@Rain Cold This a decent look? Asking for ?’manView attachment 31666
No worries. When precip comes in. The cold will go out ... one them wintersYep. Would be cold and dry. But let's get the cold in here first and worry about precip later.
Then immediately following the storm temps will get cold againNo worries. When precip comes in. The cold will go out ... one them winters
I'm still glad I hung it up the other day. This bad pattern has held all winter and I don't see anything at the moment to suggest it breaks down in February. Sorry but March snows just don't happen much. At least not anymore. And even if it does who cares? It'll melt within a day and be 65 the next!That's not a high amp phase 5. When it's near or within the circle, the MJO fluctuation doesn't have much of an influence. There are other major key factors within the pattern and not just the MJO, so results can vary. I do think the month of February will be better in terms of below normal temperatures and winter storm development verses this month.
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I'm still glad I hung it up the other day. This bad pattern has held all winter and I don't see anything at the moment to suggest it breaks down in February. Sorry but March snows just don't happen much. At least not anymore. And even if it does who cares? It'll melt within a day and be 65 the next!
Maybe so. But I may be a minority here but if it's not going to snow I'd rather have 65-70. Going back 30 years (and I don't think it's a good idea going back further than that, if even that far) it's only snowed and inch or more at GSP 3 times in March! Not sure about CLT or RDU, but their climo is probably similar. Once we reach March along the 85 corridor and south and east, it's usually all she wrote unless it's a flizzard car topper! So in my opinion we're down to the final 2 weeks in February. Good luck! We'll need it!For a change, I don’t see an endless torch dominating anytime soon. So, I think the “bad pattern” is finally over for the winter. But we’ll have to see what actually verifies obviously.
Maybe so. But I may be a minority here but if it's not going to snow I'd rather have 65-70. Going back 30 years (and I don't think it's a good idea going back further than that, if even that far) it's only snowed and inch or more at GSP 3 times in March! Not sure about CLT or RDU, but their climo is probably similar. Once we reach March along the 85 corridor and south and east, it's usually all she wrote unless it's a flizzard car topper! So in my opinion we're down to the final 2 weeks in February. Good luck! We'll need it!
I had 3 1 inch snows in March 2018.Maybe so. But I may be a minority here but if it's not going to snow I'd rather have 65-70. Going back 30 years (and I don't think it's a good idea going back further than that, if even that far) it's only snowed and inch or more at GSP 3 times in March! Not sure about CLT or RDU, but their climo is probably similar. Once we reach March along the 85 corridor and south and east, it's usually all she wrote unless it's a flizzard car topper! So in my opinion we're down to the final 2 weeks in February. Good luck! We'll need it!
Maybe so. But I may be a minority here but if it's not going to snow I'd rather have 65-70. Going back 30 years (and I don't think it's a good idea going back further than that, if even that far) it's only snowed and inch or more at GSP 3 times in March! Not sure about CLT or RDU, but their climo is probably similar. Once we reach March along the 85 corridor and south and east, it's usually all she wrote unless it's a flizzard car topper! So in my opinion we're down to the final 2 weeks in February. Good luck! We'll need it!
Yeah it was at least up here. We had 0.4 in February 93. Not sure what day as I only have the monthly totals for each month. Then 9.8 in the superstorm. So yes it can turn around.I think 93 was similar to this winter, kinda bla until March. Not saying it will happen. I’ll have to go back and see.
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I agree with the small sample size being less than adequate. But I'm sure the warmer base state now will have to play at least some part. But maybe the good news is with the tPV being very strong and bottled up it may can release some very cold air by March standards that we normally wouldn't see. But that may be me just wishcasting!It's not a good idea to only limit your sample size to the last 30 years, you don't get enough events in that period to draw any meaningful conclusions from the data. Trend-adjusting over the entire record is a better way to approach this issue.
It's not a good idea to only limit your sample size to the last 30 years, you don't get enough events in that period to draw any meaningful conclusions from the data. Trend-adjusting over the entire record is a better way to approach this issue.
The ENSO is in a neutral state now and is predicted to remain (60%) neutral into spring (2020) Atlanta is know to get significant winter storms during a netrual ENSO. These are significant winter storms that occurred for ATL during a neutral ENSO from 1934 to 2014, 10 major winter storms! Most of these were during Feb and March.
• 02/10/1934 - 4.0”
• 01/30/1936 - 6.0”
• 01/23/1940 - 8.3”
• 02/26/1952 - 3.9”
• 03/11/1960 - 4.0”
• 02/18/1979 - 4.0” (sleet)
• 01/12/1982 (Snow-Jam ‘82) - 4.0”
• 03/13/1993 (Blizzard 1993) - 4.2”
• 03/1/2009 - 4.2”
• 01/28/2014 - 2.6”
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It's not a good idea to only limit your sample size to the last 30 years, you don't get enough events in that period to draw any meaningful conclusions from the data. Trend-adjusting over the entire record is a better way to approach this issue.
Honestly looking back most of MBY Jan snowstorms have been garden variety, all the big events have been Dec or Feb/Mar, I cant recall a single storm in my lifetime in Jan that exceeded 8-10"....
Another one to add to the March 25th time frame....I remember this one I think we may have had thunder with it....
View attachment 31680
NOAA said ENSO-neutral conditions were present on the latest update from 1/20/20 and also said it's also favored through spring. That along with the update from the IRI yesterday says neutral. I've seen your tweets and it doesn't seem like a shared opinion by the powers at be. Not doubting you-- just wondering why there's such large discrepancies....you'd think it would be simple.1939-40 & 2008-09 were not neutral ENSO winters, neither is this year.
Past ENSO Events https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/past_events.html1939-40 & 2008-09 were not neutral ENSO winters, neither is this year.
The ENSO is in a neutral state now and is predicted to remain (60%) neutral into spring (2020) Atlanta is know to get significant winter storms during a netrual ENSO. These are significant winter storms that occurred for ATL during a neutral ENSO from 1934 to 2014, 10 major winter storms! Most of these were during Feb and March.
• 02/10/1934 - 4.0”
• 01/30/1936 - 6.0”
• 01/23/1940 - 8.3”
• 02/26/1952 - 3.9”
• 03/11/1960 - 4.0”
• 02/18/1979 - 4.0” (sleet)
• 01/12/1982 (Snow-Jam ‘82) - 4.0”
• 03/13/1993 (Blizzard 1993) - 4.2”
• 03/1/2009 - 4.2”
• 01/28/2014 - 2.6”
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NOAA said ENSO-neutral conditions were present on the latest update from 1/20/20 and also said it's also favored through spring. That along with the update from the IRI yesterday says neutral. I've seen your tweets and it doesn't seem like a shared opinion by the powers at be. Not doubting you-- just wondering why there's such large discrepancies....you'd think it would be simple.
Past ENSO Events https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/past_events.html
According to NOAA, the ENSO is to remain neutral. This was updated not too long ago.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produ...ng/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
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Not all years had a continuation of a Nino or Nina.Don,
1951-2 was actually El Niño.