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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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just so I'm clear--I was really just teasing about the brine. I think its useless regardless. But it always makes me feel good to see those trucks on the road.
 
superjames1992 said:
The regional models look great, the globals not as much. I should just assume whatever models show the least snow will be right, so I should be battering down for T-2". However, I'm a weenie so I can't do that.
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That's probably really good, actually. After looking at all of the guidance and trying to be fair and objective about it, a T-3" is probably a good guess for most areas with maybe 4 to as much as 6" in the north central coastal plain area. Over to the Triangle, going to be tough to get more than 2-3", even as good as some of the higher resolution models look. The HRRR and GFS not being cold, along with the NAM creeping north with the warm layer are flags.
 
Rain Cold said:
That's probably really good, actually. After looking at all of the guidance and trying to be fair and objective about it, a T-3" is probably a good guess for most areas with maybe 4 to as much as 6" in the north central coastal plain area. Over to the Triangle, going to be tough to get more than 2-3", even as good as some of the higher resolution models look. The HRRR and GFS not being cold, along with the NAM creeping north with the warm layer are flags.
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I'm hoping overrunning overperforms like it has all winter. But it probably won't now since we're talking snow now instead of rain and mother nature is out to get us.

I'm going to hug Webber's and Alan's call maps and the NAMing.
 
ryan1234 said:
Meh, I am starting to sense a huge bust potential with this system. (and not that good kind) I don't like what some of the short-range models are showing. I am normally optimistic about storms, especially with it being less than 24 hours out. But there are just so many options on the table. I fear a lot of us may end up highly disappointed. I hope that's not the case though. I cannot believe it's 2020 and we still have this much model inconsistency. It blows my mind! And to boot, not one county is under a watch or advisory of any kind. It's almost laughable.
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i think at most we see an inch
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I wish that WRF-ARW model ran every 10-15 minutes ☹
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Just make your own model like that one fool. You can make it do what ever you want.
 
SnowNiner said:
I've come to the conclusion this is going to be a best case "March" type of event, just a couple weeks early. Wet snow generally will be falling, some accumulation on grassy/elevated surfaces will take place, but mostly just slushy on streets due to surface temps. You hear the gutters draining throughout the event.

Afterwards, reporters on TV will show kids sledding down hills that are mostly brown from all the mud, and these sad little snow men will pop up everywhere. Schools will be on a 2 hour delay on Friday to accommodate for the black ice the next day just to be safe. Then we all move on to Spring where according to Larry we'll probably have another March event in a couple weeks! lol.
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A real possibility. Given the timing, for at least part of the storm we are going to be battling sun angle (more so for CLT given the timing), above freezing BL temps (for many), and warm soil temps. Without consistent moderate/heavy rates, accumulations will be hampered quite a bit by that. We need heavy rates like the short range models show, then it won't matter as much.

I don't want white rain.
 
SnowNiner said:
I've come to the conclusion this is going to be a best case "March" type of event, just a couple weeks early. Wet snow generally will be falling, some accumulation on grassy/elevated surfaces will take place, but mostly just slushy on streets due to surface temps. You hear the gutters draining throughout the event.

Afterwards, reporters on TV will show kids sledding down hills that are mostly brown from all the mud, and these sad little snow men will pop up everywhere. Schools will be on a 2 hour delay on Friday to accommodate for the black ice the next day just to be safe. Then we all move on to Spring where according to Larry we'll probably have another March event in a couple weeks! lol.
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I really hope we are both wrong. I really do!
 
The NAMS/RGEM/RAP all show cold enough solutions for ~northern half of NC; while the HRRR/GFS and others are either warm or too dry in other locations.

Will the NAMs et al get the initial conditions right? Will the WAA/FRONGNSIS produce heavy rates and help cool the atmosphere from the top down? If it does snow, will it be able to snow heavy enough during the daytime hours to overcome sun angle/warm ground/pavement? Lot's of questions abound. I like the odds for those in the northern half of NC to see near or at warning criteria snow.
 
I'd assume the NWS is working closely with the state emergency departments, and it wouldn't require a public watch, advisory, or warning for them to start treating the roads.

The problem is, issuing all those things public start costing people money. Business closings, school closings, etc. If it doesn't do anything, guess what? They're mad.
 
I don't think they can brine the roads as long as it's raining/drizzling. It will wash off.
 
Poimen said:
The NAMS/RGEM/RAP all show cold enough solutions for ~northern half of NC; while the HRRR/GFS and others are either warm or too dry in other locations.

Will the NAMs et al get the initial conditions right? Will the WAA/FRONGNSIS produce heavy rates and help cool the atmosphere from the top down? If it does snow, will it be able to snow heavy enough during the daytime hours to overcome sun angle/warm ground/pavement? Lot's of questions abound. I like the odds for those in the northern half of NC to see near or at warning criteria snow.
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That's good analysis right there.... too good for the whamby thread.
 
Less than 24 hours from go time and the models keep holding strong or even look better with each run for my area. Gotta love how things look now for a decent to great winter storm.
 
superjames1992 said:
So, um, RAH has to at least hoist WWAs this afternoon, right??? No way we at least don't get WAA criteria...No WFO in the SE have posted any advisories yet, though.
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My guess is you will see some with the western Offices this afternoon and I would not be surprised if Rah didn't hold off until the night shift.
 
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