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Brick Tamland
Guest
Well, at least now the local TV mets can say it is going to snow, even if they will most likely keep the totals low and increase as the storm unfolds.
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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
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Well, at least now the local TV mets can say it is going to snow, even if they will most likely keep the totals low and increase as the storm unfolds.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Some of y'all are too much. So many Debbie Downers.
Some of y'all don't realize what thread you're in. It's pretty evident by the same debbie downer complaint posts that happen over and over and over.
Oh god... NWS GSP, Euro, UK vs GFS, NAM, and TWC
I'm screwed
I'm screwed
Fishel ought to love that. He loves the SREFs.
People still bad mouthing the Euro, while various short range modeling is starting to show an ominous warm nose. It was dry for a few days, sure, but calling the previous runs of the NAM (that is also backing off some of the ludicrous snow amounts) compared, as the clear winner, is silly until verification time.
Euro alerted everyone to a potential event to even begin with, lol.
Euro alerted everyone to a potential event to even begin with, lol.
BackThePack
Member
Fish is already sold on cold rain. It could be snowing in his front yard and he would still deny it.
snowlover91
Member
Actually I believe the long range GFS was hinting at this threat more consistently than the Euro was... and Euro may end up being right but I highly doubt it. Usually inside 48 hours a NAM/RGEM blend ends up being pretty close.
I can't wait for my hours of sleet and rain while brick gets snow!!!! It's going to be so fun watching others jackpot while I'm miserable. Is that what you are looking for brick?
I'm not calling the Euro's forecast 3 days ago correct either. I'm just saying the foot + amounts on the NAM likely wrong now that we are seeing temperature profiles better too. The Euro went dry down to almost CAE at some points also, with a weak mess.
Idk about any kind of long long range gfs, I just noticed the big storm that showed up on the Euro especially through this area. Maybe it was for NC, but we gets lots of crazy runs when a model runs 384 hours out.
GFS was a lakes cuttter while the EURO was showing Deep South overrunning early last week
Brick when he gets nothing but rain.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
And then it sucked until today.
Maybe you and Don should start a forecasting service. Weenies 'R Us
Thor
Member
Just think about if you would of made a map to draw that out first, you could of held that up for eternity casting dispersions upon the masses of Brick Doubters, alas you couldn't rise to the challenge.
snowlover91
Member
Yeah my friend and I started watching this around 240 hours out on the GFS. Tidbits doesn't go back in time far enough to show all those but here is hour 204 from the Feb 12th GFS run.
IMO those runs from 204 to 240 hours out were remarkably similar to the overall precip evolution we are looking at in the Carolinas. It lost the storm a bit and then starting with the Feb 14 00z run the GFS once again had this as a consistent threat while the Euro showed it for 2-3 runs before going away from it into utter suppression. The Euro JUST recently caved to the snowier solutions in the 00z and 06z runs while the GFS has been showing a snowier solution for days. IMO with how poorly the Euro has been handling this and with it being an outlier I don't feel like it carries much weight with this sytem tbh. Some models perform better in different setups and the Euro/UK are struggling with this one.
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