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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Brick Tamland said:
Which is why I don't get why some mets are going with the conservative approach. We have had so much precip here since November. Until you actually see that ending, why think it isn't going to be the same with this system?
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What happens if you go with the nam and at 36 hours everything jumps north and it's a cold rain.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Which is why I don't get why some mets are going with the conservative approach. We have had so much precip here since November. Until you actually see that ending, why think it isn't going to be the same with this system?
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I really think most of NC will do quite well from this storm. I also think some will see thundersnow at some point with the way things are trending so far.
 
SD said:
What happens if you go with the nam and at 36 hours everything jumps north and it's a cold rain.
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I know, but I wish they would take the approach like these are what all the models are showing. The Euro has the least, but all these other ones are showing a good storm, so these are possibilities, too. But instead it's just go with the most conservative and don't even mention the others, no matter how many show something different.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I know, but I wish they would take the approach like these are what all the models are showing. The Euro has the least, but all these other ones are showing a good storm, so these are possibilities, too. But instead it's just go with the most conservative and don't even mention the others, no matter how many show something different.
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Thats WRAL for you. Theyve been burned for over and under forecasting. Remember in jan of 1988 when bob debarbaladen said rain and then it started snowing for the entire day?
 
I've only lurked today but I think I'm going crazy from the trends I've seen. Probably would be another good time to be back in the northern part of the state and I might need to consider signing off...

Oh forget that, it'd actually be a good time to drive to NC instead and where I'm at is closer than the grounds I'm thinking of (unless I'm thinking about possibly when I move out). Maybe visit Biscuitville (which I just learned about a couple days ago and find very interesting) and then experience some snow.
 
Does anyone know how good weathernerd's soundings are? I read from @Fountainguy97 that they're not really great concerning p-types but I wonder if anyone has opinions about the soundings. I like the feature where you can hover your mouse over the chart and it'll give you exact readouts, but I don't know if it's accurate...
 
Greg Fishel's take from earlier today:

"I started getting messages last week about the killer snowstorm coming later this week. First one I saw was a 240 hour forecast which was more comedic than Don Rickles in his prime. And the funny thing is, many of the folks that put this stuff out there issue a disclaimer that it’s not their forecast but a model forecast. That way if it’s wrong, which most times it is, they’re free of responsibility. But by putting it out there, they attract attention. The technical term for that is clickbait. Kermit Keeter, formerly a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Raleigh once told me that he’d rather be right than first. I never forgot that. So this “event” is still several days off. For snow lovers, I don’t like the position of the High pressure area. The favored area for that High is over New England which results in a direct discharge of arctic air down the eastern seaboard. A High in the Great Plains makes it more difficult to get cold as the cold air has to cross the mountains. So I’m still very much in the wait and see mode. Don’t worry, no matter what happens, I won’t claim victory, just vigilance."

What's up with this talk about the positioning of the high pressure system? Seems overblown imo no?
 
Dont buy into that wake co talk. I live in Chatham, just west of Wake, and moncure can get ice and or rain while liberty on the nw side of Chatham can get 4 to 6. I think chatham, wake, johnston, and even Randolph county often deal with it.
 
whatitdo said:
Greg Fishel's take from earlier today:

"I started getting messages last week about the killer snowstorm coming later this week. First one I saw was a 240 hour forecast which was more comedic than Don Rickles in his prime. And the funny thing is, many of the folks that put this stuff out there issue a disclaimer that it’s not their forecast but a model forecast. That way if it’s wrong, which most times it is, they’re free of responsibility. But by putting it out there, they attract attention. The technical term for that is clickbait. Kermit Keeter, formerly a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Raleigh once told me that he’d rather be right than first. I never forgot that. So this “event” is still several days off. For snow lovers, I don’t like the position of the High pressure area. The favored area for that High is over New England which results in a direct discharge of arctic air down the eastern seaboard. A High in the Great Plains makes it more difficult to get cold as the cold air has to cross the mountains. So I’m still very much in the wait and see mode. Don’t worry, no matter what happens, I won’t claim victory, just vigilance."

What's up with this talk about the positioning of the high pressure system? Seems overblown imo no?
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I kind of don’t understand all this talk about the HP not being in a favorable position.

I mean this was a snowstorm in central NC in March. Look at that powerful 1026 mb HP up in Canada! Different setup, I know, and a stronger SLP, but still.

378FBE81-48B1-43B2-881C-EFD8D99B2F4C.gif
 
After 6 hours of mod/hvy snow a couple weeks ago it’s going to be hard to get excited for a backend flurry. That warm nose looks like it means business
 
mydoortotheworld said:
Does anyone know how good weathernerd's soundings are? I read from @Fountainguy97 that they're not really great concerning p-types but I wonder if anyone has opinions about the soundings. I like the feature where you can hover your mouse over the chart and it'll give you exact readouts, but I don't know if it's accurate...
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The soundings showed tons of snow here before (a couple years ago) that were FAR from reality. use with grain of salt.

It's almost like the area you clicked was not the area returned.
 
I can’t believe we managed to reel this one in ... from a dumpster fire winter to a statewide (I’m talking about NC sorry everyone else who’s not effected) fairly significant snow storm brewing in just several days now
 
And it doesn’t look like we’re going to be over with the threats .. (although after this it does look like we get some rain storms) early March still look quite promising for winter weather mischief
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I can’t believe we managed to reel this one in ... from a dumpster fire winter to a statewide (I’m talking about NC sorry everyone else who’s not effected) fairly significant snow storm brewing in just several days now
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you need to watch those 850s. tbh.
 
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