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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Brick Tamland said:
Everyone is ignoring my Greg Fishel post in the January thread. Don't get your hopes up. Greg says turn out the lights, game over, winter cancelled.
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Welp guess we should just shut down then. Have all the respect in the world for the guy but that's a really ballsy comment to make

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Brick Tamland said:
Everyone is ignoring my Greg Fishel post in the January thread. Don't get your hopes up. Greg says turn out the lights, game over, winter cancelled.
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Anyone saying it for the SE has a 75% chance of being right. lol. He may be right but he doesn't seem to have any scientific reason why. I'd probably agree that our chances for January are quite low IMO, but February looks like a come back is possible.
 
I get what Greg Fishel is saying...when you get to mid Jan and the pattern looks like this with a stout strat PV you can't help but think winter is probably over.



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Brent said:
It's happening

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Brick Tamland said:
Everyone is ignoring my Greg Fishel post in the January thread. Don't get your hopes up. Greg says turn out the lights, game over, winter cancelled.
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He's about as accurate as me throwing a glass plate on the ground and counting the shards to see how long until it'll snow again. We have 2 months left and 1 to see some change. We will have a change in the coming weeks.
 
NoSnowATL said:
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Good ole TWC sees that pattern change.


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People hate on their automated forecasts, but they never seem to have to change them that much, even after day ten.
 
KyloG said:
I get what Greg Fishel is saying...when you get to mid Jan and the pattern looks like this with a stout strat PV you can't help but think winter is probably over.



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It's January and do people not realize that the pattern is crap? How are others not annoyed that soon as we get into January, (the month that it's suppose to be the coldest month) and we get spring like weather instead? I know I am; I'm admitting it, winter is basically over at this point!

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WxWatch said:
It's January and do people not realize that the pattern is crap? How are others not annoyed that soon as we get into January, (the month that it's suppose to be the coldest month) and we get spring like weather instead? I know I am; I'm admitting it, winter is basically over at this point!

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I’ve seen January’s a lot worse than this one. Plus last winter set the bar high for suckage so why not keep piling on.
 
For those throwing in towel saying winter is over PLEASE do us all a favor and STOP POSTING . Find something else to do , another hobby for the next three months . Oh and make sure when the first real threat pops up between now and March 1 do NOT come back here


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At least January’s have been mostly near average temperature wise lately. I don’t even want to know where this one ends up. KATL has had 5 total freezes so far. The low temperatures have been astronomical with weeks of March-like temperatures incoming. It’s just sad when there is such an abundance of cold air nearby. It will look like full blown spring around here in a few weeks, the maples are already budding.
 
WxWatch said:
It's January and do people not realize that the pattern is crap? How are others not annoyed that soon as we get into January, (the month that it's suppose to be the coldest month) and we get spring like weather instead? I know I am; I'm admitting it, winter is basically over at this point!

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I’m sure most are atleast slightly aggravated but we have 8-10 weeks of legit time to get a period or two that can produce.
 
Getting ready for the final lap prepping for a jury trial that's gonna stretch in to 2 weeks. Not looking much at weather or anything else. If anyone sees anything worth notice IMBY, please PM me; I'll be looking in here as I can. Most appreciated!
Best & Thanks!
Phil
 
J.C. said:
At least January’s have been mostly near average temperature wise lately. I don’t even want to know where this one ends up. KATL has had 5 total freezes so far. The low temperatures have been astronomical with weeks of March-like temperatures incoming. It’s just sad when there is such an abundance of cold air nearby. It will look like full blown spring around here in a few weeks, the maples are already budding.
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Are you ITP? It was 24 again this morning and my daffodils aren’t breaking the surface yet?
 
EmersonGA said:
Are you ITP? It was 24 again this morning and my daffodils aren’t breaking the surface yet?
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No, I’m in northeastern Cobb county, so while I’m generally 3-5 degrees colder then the airport, I’m not in a valley at 1148’, so our lows are a good bit warmer then areas like Bartow County that sit fairly low where you are.
 
J.C. said:
No, I’m in northeastern Cobb county, so while I’m generally 3-5 degrees colder then the airport, I’m not in a valley at 1148’, so our lows are a good bit warmer then areas like Bartow County that sit fairly low where you are.
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True. I’m in a prime spot for radiational cooling and we have had three or four May frosts since we moved here. We have lacked the post frontal cold air advection freezes that take care of you guys.
 
KyloG said:
I’m sure most are atleast slightly aggravated but we have 8-10 weeks of legit time to get a period or two that can produce.
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I sure hope there will be a legit winter storm to track soon. It seems like everything we see that supports a colder pattern and winter storms are in the 200+/300+ hour range. And then as time closes in, it basically turns out to be nothing and we get screwed over. Even if the PV does drop south that doesn't automatically scream winter storms. It could turn out to be cold and dry which that has a much greater chance at verifying than a cold and wet pattern. It's crazy how the deep cold air can come knocking on the southeast "doors" and we still can't score. As long as that southern stream is pumping with a solid eastern ridge, that deep arctic air has no chance of pushing south and east. I'm just being honest, there's not going to be winter storm(s) anytime soon at this time and that's a big disappointment with it being January.
 
Storm5 said:
For those throwing in towel saying winter is over PLEASE do us all a favor and STOP POSTING . Find something else to do , another hobby for the next three months . Oh and make sure when the first real threat pops up between now and March 1 do NOT come back here


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but it really may be... lol
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I’ll try and reiterate for the people in the back that maybe can’t look at all the posts all the time ... STOP LOOKING AT THE LONG RANGE OPERATION POOP GFS ... that gives you NO indication of what’s to come it won’t come to formation just as all the other operational long range Gfs forecasts haven’t in the past several months ... look at ensembles and for the love of god look at what’s been more reliable which would be the EURO model and it’s ensembles.. now I do believe the pattern change is going to be a process I’m sure we will see several icing events and cad events before a full change to cold and snow .. this would most likely benefit more the upper south regions in the time period 18th-25th I.e Tennessee North Carolina .. the usuals .. after that though we should see a more solidified trough pattern dig into the East with what looks to be lots of blocking beginning to take place as the opposite reaction will have fully commenced by that point .. and no this isn’t going to shut off the STJ it’s not as simple as turning off a hose it wasn’t “turned off” a month ago and it’s not going to turn off now sure there may be initial times of cold and dry as there always will be but the systems will come in as they have been for months and they will have a much easier time lining up with a cold shot once we fully get into this pattern after 25th
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Back a couple weeks ago when there was literally no sign of cold on the ensembles I saw you pick out cold operational runs and scream pattern change several times. If all that wishcasting would have came true we'd all have over a foot of snow and frigid temps by now.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Back a couple weeks ago when there was literally no sign of cold on the ensembles I saw you pick out cold operational runs and scream pattern change several times. If all that wishcasting would have came true we'd all have over a foot of snow and frigid temps by now.
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Indeed I was wrong to pick those models out as it is wrong to do now .. but now I’m picking out a majority of the models supporting pattern change and this includes ensembles which are high and dry the basket we need to be putting our eggs into and shining light to the absolute minority of just the operational Gfs at this point that says winter is delayed till February maybe late late January cause near the end of the operational it looks good .. to throw in the towel with the overwhelming support for pattern change around 18-25th seems like an odd thing to do
 
More of my pictures in Tahoe today this was all old snow at least several days old if not older but away from the trail where I was for awhile was so deep my shoes were buried a few times and it was a struggle to walk through. I was kind of surprised given how warm and sunny it's been the last 3 days

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Rain Cold said:
Do you recall the CFS showing a winter month this cold before? It seems like it mostly shows warm most of the time.
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Yeah, I keep expecting it to back of. It does bounce around run to run but it’s been mostly cold after Jan 20th.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Back a couple weeks ago when there was literally no sign of cold on the ensembles I saw you pick out cold operational runs and scream pattern change several times. If all that wishcasting would have came true we'd all have over a foot of snow and frigid temps by now.
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Lol. The bittercasting is getting worse than any wishcasting.

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It’s as simple as this, the SE will have 1-3 legit chances to score in the next 3 months, we often thread the needle here and do good off that, no need to throw away winter Because its far from over, AN winter doesn’t mean no snow, in fact AN winters can still have big dogs in them, all you need is a week of a favorable pattern and that can the job done, the winter canceling posts ain’t it
 
Another thing to note. Is these storm systems has been bringing areas 1-3 inches of rain. If we finally get the cold air with one of these systems. Well at a 10 to 1 ratio it could be something significant. We could have a mostly warm winter and see one significant storm. It only takes one and at least here in upstate sc. the only year in history to not have snow is 2011-2012 winter. So odds of seeing a snow seems to be pretty good.


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Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s as simple as this, the SE will have 1-3 legit chances to score in the next 3 months, we often thread the needle here and do good off that, no need to throw away winter Because its far from over, AN winter doesn’t mean no snow, in fact AN winters can still have big dogs in them, all you need is a week of a favorable pattern and that can the job done, the winter canceling posts ain’t it
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Exactly a little perspective and grasp on reality might do folks some good

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Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s as simple as this, the SE will have 1-3 legit chances to score in the next 3 months, we often thread the needle here and do good off that, no need to throw away winter Because its far from over, AN winter doesn’t mean no snow, in fact AN winters can still have big dogs in them, all you need is a week of a favorable pattern and that can the job done, the winter canceling posts ain’t it
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Wow finally some positivity. Thanks for the post
 
I'm not saying winter is over for the rest of the winter. Winter is over for the time being through at least mid month. I just got into one of those moods, cause soon as we get into January the pattern HAS to go into a train wreck. Who is tired of all of the speculation, hoping and wishing that we had a good pattern that supports cold air and winter storms? I am! It's like when are we ever going to get a legitimate cold pattern? Why is it so difficult for us to get a winter storm? We get the moisture, not having the cold is always the problem. And then, if it gets really cold, it has a better chance at being dry. We can't win for losing gosh dang it!

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Well a lot of our winter storms occur after dry cold. Not usually after hot and wet. Being too wet is part of the problem IMO.
 
I just need that cold air ever so close, I can’t handle another January 2000 (no way I can remember the date) but Memphis (90 miles NW of me) was getting 20-25 degree temps, ice and snow and we sat at 55 just to the west of a stalled front. Never ever made it to us, and 30-40 miles SE me it was in the 70s. I have never seen anything like that, at least so close to me.
 
You don’t see a track that crisp modeled too often these days...Even if it’s just a 300 hour Miller A #ColdRain
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