• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

Status
Not open for further replies.
BirdManDoomW said:
Well a lot of our winter storms occur after dry cold. Not usually after hot and wet. Being too wet is part of the problem IMO.
Click to expand...
I would respectfully disagree.. I would say we’re probably warm and wet and all that means is we are getting an active storm track .. to get something really beneficial and to get a large storm you need a good storm track like we’ve had thus far along with cold air either already being in place or coming down and meeting the storm track half way .. those create our big dogs we just haven’t seen the big dogs a lot recently so I think we forget how we get them
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Interesting time frame, there will still likely be a SER, but the Sfc will likely be cool during this time from artic high pressure, certainly supports icy conditions with shallow cold air somewhere
Click to expand...
Fro, I despise Miller B’s...they never work out here 0A7E6426-3FD4-463F-AF16-89F795EC8008.jpeg
 
Really liking that timeframe coming up, Im actually feeling it this time lol that’s why I’m posting back to back about it
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Fro, I despise Miller B’s...they never work out here View attachment 30018
Click to expand...

Hard agree. I just can't even get slightly excited about Miller B's or Miller B patterns. SE ridge / WAR, pick your poison. They'll probably make every storm cut way, way west. Even with strong CAD I doubt we can pull off a significant ice storm. Most likely ice at the onset transitioning to rain IMO. Like you say, Miller B's stank. The only way they have worked in the past for us is when they're Miller B/A hybrids that transfer energy to the coast but do so to our south in the deep SE (remember dig, dig dig hopes?). I'm open to anything, but the pattern for the next 2 weeks to me looks very poor (better but still poor). Shot in the dark Miller B's are just a really long shot that I can't buy into.

GEFS and GEPS look lock step with each other. SE stays warm with hard core WAR best case scenario. I'm sure EPS is better but haven't seen. Getting tired of squinting for the light at the end of the tunnel.
 

Attachments

  • 1578575503829.png
    1578575503829.png
    452.3 KB · Views: 13
  • 1578575894250.png
    1578575894250.png
    399.8 KB · Views: 14
db083d38c8f533dbb8e981dcb588e665.jpg



Same look, different month. It’s exhausting.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Story of our winter severe storms and rain If only it was January yeah right
tining010920.png
TIMING: The main window for severe storms over the western side of the state will come from 9:00 a.m. until 4 p.m… for the central counties the window is from 12:00 noon to 6:00 p.m… and for East Alabama 2:00 p.m. until 8:00 p.m. This will be a generally daytime event.

THREATS: A line of storms will sweep through the state Saturday with potential for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes. Also, any discrete cells that form east of the line will be capable of producing a few tornadoes as well. Based on the forecast parameters, a few strong tornadoes (EF2 or higher) can’t be ruled out. Also, some hail is possible with the heavier thunderstorms. And, away from thunderstorms, pressure gradient winds will be fairly robust during the day Saturday; expect a south wind averaging 15-25 mph with higher gusts.

RAIN: Rain amounts tomorrow night and Saturday should be around 2 inches for much of Alabama; some flooding issues are possible. We note seven day rain totals (valid through Thursday of next week) are in the 4-5 inch range over North Alabama, with 3-4 inches for the southern counties as more rain is likely next week.
Screen-Shot-2020-01-09-at-6.10.38-AM-1024x690.png
 
Oh and lets not forget about the above average temperatures imby that i been dealing with Yeah folks I'm frustrated with this winter....
NEXT WEEK: Moist air returns, and we forecast periods of rain Monday through at least Wednesday. No severe storms are expected, and the weather stays mild with highs in the 60s.
nbm-conus-KBHM-daily_tmin_tmax-8564000.png
 
LovesSnowHatesRidges said:
LOL people that like summer kill me.... who wants to wake up early in the summertime and walk outside and immediately start sweating cause it’s already 95% humidity?
Click to expand...

At least you know what you’re getting. I enjoy summer, I also love winter but it’s always a coin flip and that gets the old after a few weeks.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
NoSnowATL said:
At least you know what you’re getting. I enjoy summer, I also love winter but it’s always a coin flip and that gets the old after a few weeks.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I love summer for the thunderstorms/lightning photos, and because typically that’s when I’m at a all time high in my life, idk why, but it’s always during summer, and I exercise the most in the summer, my body just seems to handle summer heat well
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I love summer for the thunderstorms/lightning photos, and because typically that’s when I’m at a all time high in my life, idk why, but it’s always during summer, and I exercise the most in the summer, my body just seems to handle summer heat well
Click to expand...

I agree, we live in the SE( besides Metwannabe) . It’s hot or warm 11. 99% months out of the 12. Our bodies are use to it, that’s probably why we love winter and snow so much. It’s a change and change is good for the mind and body.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I would respectfully disagree.. I would say we’re probably warm and wet and all that means is we are getting an active storm track .. to get something really beneficial and to get a large storm you need a good storm track like we’ve had thus far along with cold air either already being in place or coming down and meeting the storm track half way .. those create our big dogs we just haven’t seen the big dogs a lot recently so I think we forget how we get them
Click to expand...
We have been hot for some time. Not warm. And I have seen big dogs for the past several winters to know too much of a good thing hurts us. 8DEAB728-D0C8-46C6-98DB-4BF65897EB0E.jpeg
 
ForsythSnow said:
JB: Oh yeah winter's over
JB 2 days later: Yup here comes the winter weather and cold like I always promised!
Click to expand...

Just to clarify, I don’t recall JB actually ever saying or even implying winter is over. He’s too stubborn and too much of a weenie to even consider doing that. It is usually delayed but NOT denied.
Actually though, anyone saying winter is over this early is foolish.
 
GaWx said:
Just to clarify, I don’t recall JB actually ever saying or even implying winter is over. He’s too stubborn and too much of a weenie to even consider doing that. It is usually delayed but NOT denied.
Actually though, anyone saying winter is over this early is foolish.
Click to expand...

Question? Phase 7 and Georgia winter storms? Do you post something about the phases and winter events in Ga? I’ve been trying to find it. Thanks.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
It's good to see some good news this morning. The 6z GFS shows frozen precip mischief as well as ensemble members. I wouldn't necessarily say it's potential cause it's just "noise" in the mid to long range. I want to see consistency of a winter storm, back to back on every single run before calling anything potential. If a winter storm with great significance is really going to happen, the models will show it back to back in every model run.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
 
WxWatch said:
It's good to see some good news this morning. The 6z GFS shows frozen precip mischief as well as ensemble members. I wouldn't necessarily say it's potential cause it's just "noise" in the mid to long range. I want to see consistency of a winter storm, back to back on every single run before calling anything potential. If a winter storm with great significance is really going to happen, the models will show it back to back in every model run.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Not always.... Sometimes the models will lose the storm in the medium range, only to pick it back up in the short term range.
 
WxWatch said:
It's good to see some good news this morning. The 6z GFS shows frozen precip mischief as well as ensemble members. I wouldn't necessarily say it's potential cause it's just "noise" in the mid to long range. I want to see consistency of a winter storm, back to back on every single run before calling anything potential. If a winter storm with great significance is really going to happen, the models will show it back to back in every model run.
Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I respectfully disagree. We have seen many big dogs with little to no back to back runs in the long range. Plus, around January 20th we are talking peak climo for many in NC outside of the mtns. I believe the signal is stronger than what you just posted.
 
GaWx said:
Just to clarify, I don’t recall JB actually ever saying or even implying winter is over. He’s too stubborn and too much of a weenie to even consider doing that. It is usually delayed but NOT denied.
Actually though, anyone saying winter is over this early is foolish.
Click to expand...
Yep if you don't like him is one thing but saying something that he didn't say is different. He has never one time said winter is over. Has since Oct said winter would be mid to late Jan to March. He recognizes patterns more than anything.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Not always.... Sometimes the models will lose the storm in the medium range, only to pick it back up in the short term range.
Click to expand...
That's true, but it's like if something is really going to happen, why does the models sometimes have inconsistency with something? Yes, the models can sometimes pick the storm back up in the shorter range, but sometimes it turns out to be basically nothing, a little bit of something, or something much greater. Sometimes the inconsistency is unbelievable even in the shorter range.
BirdManDoomW said:
I respectfully disagree. We have seen many big dogs with little to no back to back runs in the long range. Plus, around January 20th we are talking peak climo for many in NC outside of the mtns. I believe the signal is stronger than what you just posted.
Click to expand...
If something with such a great strong signal, the models shaw show it on mostly every run. The models shouldn't leave us in the "dark" leaving us in question, "where's the winter storm? it's gone!" and we end up speculating. If something is really going to give, we shaw receive.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
 
NoSnowATL said:
I was being sarcastic btw. But honestly that MJO look is what I saw coming a week or two back. I think she looped last year as well. That’s a bad look if you want winter weather in the SE. I’ll still hope for a 5-10 day period but that’s all at this point.
Click to expand...

GaStorm said:
Lol. I would definitely give it time. No need to get worried about the MJO since it could go back towards better phases or stay in the COD which is better than where it is now.
Click to expand...
Just 2 days ago we were looking at some doom and gloom MJO forecasts. What a difference a couple days makes lol.
 
12z NAM suggest a potential severe weather event after 30 hrs. Main threat straight line winds. A few vortices can not be rules out. Should remain south of Maryland. "Famous last words."

12Z-20200109_NAMUS_prec_radar-39-60-10-100.gif
 
Last edited:
WxWatch said:
That's true, but it's like if something is really going to happen, why does the models sometimes have inconsistency with something? Yes, the models can sometimes pick the storm back up in the shorter range, but sometimes it turns out to be basically nothing, a little bit of something, or something much greater. Sometimes the inconsistency is unbelievable even in the shorter range. If something with such a great strong signal, the models shaw show it on mostly every run. The models shouldn't leave us in the "dark" leaving us in question, "where's the winter storm? it's gone!" and we end up speculating. If something is really going to give, we shaw receive.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
If you have sodium and water sitting riiiiiiiiiiight next to each other, you have sodium and water. If you have sodium in water, you have BANG! Where did everybody go???!!! The models often can't resolve the exact nature of the interaction of elements the would lead to a storm or no storm, at range. It's why you see runs with storms followed by runs with no storms followed by runs with storms. All you really need to focus on at a distance is the pattern.

Is cold available?
Is the flow active (is energy necessary to create a storm available)?
Is there a model bias to be aware of?

Answer those and then you can assess the probability of a storm and the credibility of what a model might or might not be showing.

To say either that winter storms that turn out to be real are always well-modeled from range is inaccurate, as is saying they always go away and then come back. Both happen. Right now, we're tracking a pattern change to hopefully a better pattern. Once that appears likely, it will also be likely that models will start showing more winter weather events out in time. Then, hopefully, we can reel one or two of those in.
 
Rain Cold said:
If you have sodium and water sitting riiiiiiiiiiight next to each other, you have sodium and water. If you have sodium in water, you have BANG! Where did everybody go???!!! The models often can't resolve the exact nature of the interaction of elements the would lead to a storm or no storm, at range. It's why you see runs with storms followed by runs with no storms followed by runs with storms. All you really need to focus on at a distance is the pattern.

Is cold available?
Is the flow active (is energy necessary to create a storm available)?
Is there a model bias to be aware of?

Answer those and then you can assess the probability of a storm and the credibility of what a model might or might not be showing.

To say either that winter storms that turn out to be real are always well-modeled from range is inaccurate, as is saying they always go away and then come back. Both happen. Right now, we're tracking a pattern change to hopefully a better pattern. Once that appears likely, it will also be likely that models will start showing more winter weather events out in time. Then, hopefully, we can reel one or two of those in.
Click to expand...

Bingo!
 
Models are quidance. Let's look at the January 7th event. From 120-240 the GFS had a southern track. The CMC had a northern track into New York State. The Euro bounced. In the end the truth, or reality, was in the middle. That does not happen every time.

Rain Cold said it best. It just means conditions are such that a storm could occure.... That's why we look and hope. Keep in mind we most save some hope for March...
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top