• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

Status
Not open for further replies.
The Weather Channel's forecast for ATL has changed quite a bit over the past 12 hours for tonight going from rain/snow mix to rain changing to snow to this....

Cloudy skies this evening. A few snow showers developing late. Low 31F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 30%.

It's a low chance, but I guess they're going with the GFS & SR models. If anything develops it could be as early as 1am or as late as 4am.

EDIT: Sidenote, the HP over Iowa today actually did peak at 1047mb. It's nice to actually see models did a great job nailing the strength of a strong HP sliding out of Canada w/o the last minute weakening were used to seeing the models do come verification time.
 
tramadoc said:
Does anyone remember Ronnie Bobbitt from AmWx? I saw him in a tweet battle on Allan Huffman's Twitter account with some other dudes. His spelling and grammar is atrocious.
Click to expand...
Yes that is the ultimate weenie. And he doesn't take criticism at all. Surprised he argued with someone on Twitter. He blocked me after one tweet where I called him out on his bogus wishcasting.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Yes that is the ultimate weenie. And he doesn't take criticism at all. Surprised he argued with someone on Twitter. He blocked me after one tweet where I called him out on his bogus wishcasting.
Click to expand...

That’s basically what he’s fighting people about. He’s arguing with NWS RAH too. LOL. @bobbittweather3. He has like five different Twitter accounts. And wouldn’t you know it, he lives in Elizabeth City. I wish I knew where. Get the wife to help me TP his house and light a bag of dog turds on his doorstep.
 
Shawn said:
Wouldn't call the NAM a winner at all, considering it slowly but surely kept cutting back at amounts, only to give a couple more weenie runs before ultimately ending up with far less (so far). We shall see.
Click to expand...

I feel like it did well with synoptic scale short range modeling, but poorly with mesoscale modeling. Honestly, when it comes down to it, Euro may have done the best with the accumulations at the very very end.
 
Shortbread cookies with a Hershey kiss in the middle are A1. Just tried that recipe and they are great.

Miss you grandma. That was the first time I had any kind of shortbread in a while, the last time that wasn't me doing a chocolate shortbread was the last time my grandma made them before she went downhill.
 
Shawn said:
Wouldn't call the NAM a winner at all, considering it slowly but surely kept cutting back at amounts, only to give a couple more weenie runs before ultimately ending up with far less (so far). We shall see.
Click to expand...

I am not sure any model was a real winner with the amounts, but at least the NAM was consistent in showing a storm and didn't jump on board until the day before like the Euro.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
I feel like it did well with synoptic scale short range modeling, but poorly with mesoscale modeling. Honestly, when it comes down to it, Euro may have done the best with the accumulations at the very very end.
Click to expand...

When it finally joined the party yesterday.
 
Brick Tamland said:
When it finally joined the party yesterday.
Click to expand...

The euro was one of the first models that showed this system last week

But I a kinda agree with you . The nam was consistent with the system but will end up busting horribly with the amounts which we’ve seen it do over and over throughout the years


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Watched snow actually melting hundreds of feet above me in this little pisser of a cold rain storm. What it could have been I guess with more cold air, or night time arrival and high pressure to the NE.
 
Just goes to show you we really don't know what is going to happen when it comes to winter storms here. It's crazy, we do all this with following the models, and it can go either way. Mother nature is just going to do what it's going to do, and it is just hard for the models to get where the snow will be and how much around here.

With that said, the models look intriguing for the end of next week. Can't wait to do it all over again!
 
CyclonicFury said:
I'll up this winter to a D+. This is more snow than I had in winters 2011-12, 2012-13, 2015-16 and 2016-17. I don't have a reason to complain about a lack of snow for the rest of the winter. I'll take 3" of wet powder any day
Click to expand...

I think your grade will be upgraded more before the end of this winter. Mark my words! :D
 
I'm still holding steady at C+ for Chattanooga. One short-lived but utterly beautiful heavy snow storm upgraded it from a solid F to that point. Hoping end of Feb, early Mar holds some more surprises...
 
Last night, there were many people speaking in literals how the cold air was underdone and how the snow line would sneak well below the Upstate into the Greenwood area. There were others guaranteeing there would likely be a historic Winter storm in other areas. I hope people didn't read too much into that, because there was never anything that would indicate that to happen, except a NAM model that is known to overdo snowfall accumulation.

A near real time model was on our local news tonight, literally covering the entire state in snow on the back-end, and of course, it made no meteorological sense. These things are tools, and soundings definitely showed, drizzle at best with some sleet mixed in. The threat for the Midlands of SC getting a big hit never existed. The modeling just decided to spit out a few wonky solutions for us, many days ago.


Hopefully, members will take a lesson in many cases here and stop following the weenie runs of modeling. @Rain Cold made a perfect point about choosing the lowest snowfall accumulation, and hoping for the best for the most part. There are so many processes going on in the South that impede appreciable snowfall & accumulation. Using computer models as forecasts, instead of as tools, is always going to disappoint.
 
Storm5 said:
The euro was one of the first models that showed this system last week

But I a kinda agree with you . The nam was consistent with the system but will end up busting horribly with the amounts which we’ve seen it do over and over throughout the years


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Looking at snow depth maps on the NAM vs snowfall maps it didn't bust all that bad. It actually got my area almost exactly right. Granted it was a different aspect of the storm vs the East side of the Apps.
 
Shawn said:
Hopefully, members will take a lesson in many cases here and stop following the weenie runs of modeling. @Rain Cold made a perfect point about choosing the lowest snowfall accumulation, and hoping for the best for the most part. There are so many processes going on in the South that impede appreciable snowfall & accumulation. Using computer models as forecasts, instead of as tools, is always going to disappoint.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, what you just stated and what Rain Cold said last night will fall on deaf ears. I actually took that same approach re: Rain Cold about four years ago. It's the wise thing to do and it also won't set you up for disappointment.

There's this thing when snow is involved where many folks can't or won't think clearly.
 
ColaSnow said:
Unfortunately, what you just stated and what Rain Cold said last night will fall on deaf ears. I actually took that same approach re: Rain Cold about four years ago. It's the wise thing to do and it also won't set you up for disappointment.

There's this thing when snow is involved where many folks can't or won't think clearly.
Click to expand...

After living in CAEHELL for the last decade and watching how our Winters have turned out, I've learned to only use pessimism and figure out how a Winter storm won't happen here, instead of trying to will it in with "what ifs".

I don't care if the synoptic setup is absolutely perfect on the models anymore, I will always do my best to find a way that it will not happen. A lot of people from the area have begun to get annoyed with my pessimism, but it is what it is.

I hug the Euro so tightly, because it does a fine job for this area, for the most part in Winter. When that model's ensemble starts to show a hint of something realistic here, I do get a little more excited.
 
Shawn said:
After living in CAEHELL for the last decade and watching how our Winters have turned out, I've learned to only use pessimism and figure out how a Winter storm won't happen here, instead of trying to will it in with "what ifs".
Click to expand...

I think you and many others, folks in NC as well, think the same way. Go look back at reports and cliff jumping from several people in SC AND NC. Other than Brick and a handful of others, many were climbing the cliff whilst talking themselves how things would turn out badly.

It sucks but it seems like that's the times we're in.
 
My forecasting was sup par as I tend to get too caught up in run to run variability, but the pattern recognition was on point

23C413BD-D616-4B92-A0A2-2A3FCD8765C7.jpeg

Also, Euro nailed this one from long range in my opinion. Hate away. It’s still the best thing out there and it’s not even close.
E0287A06-8EEF-4A37-B736-C2EC6CDFE716.jpeg
 
BirdManDoomW said:
------------- is claiming victory. Now Hold my Bo ice tea. Well go(inserted clean version) I wish he would stop lying. He said bread&milk storm and told schools to shutdown. Over this? I wish he had higher standards because he is altering plans of families and hurting local economies of the Charlotte metro market. There is a big difference in playing it safe and being wrong to cause panic. If you would like to further this conversation let’s move it over to banter. Thank-you.
Click to expand...
Actually you are way wrong on this .. all week he’s been downplaying the event saying it will most likely be nothing and most will melt .. he began latching on to maybe a bit more of accumulation last night and today.. but even then it was very downplayed and only thing he was talking about was the black ice would be the biggest problem for most Friday morning and Saturday morning which is 100% correct .. so no I think ur statement is grossly incorrect
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Actually you are way wrong on this .. all week he’s been downplaying the event saying it will most likely be nothing and most will melt .. he began latching on to maybe a bit more of accumulation last night and today.. but even then it was very downplayed and only thing he was talking about was the black ice would be the biggest problem for most Friday morning and Saturday morning which is 100% correct .. so no I think ur statement is grossly incorrect
Click to expand...
Exactly, I was aggravated earlier in week bc he was being so conservative and not telling me what my weenie side wanted to hear.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top