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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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I still think that most of us have a decent shot at scoring before winter is over. I also believe that modeling won't even show this hypothetical system until we get within the 3-5 day range. It's not going to show up in the LR modeling. Given how poorly they've performed, why would we even expect that?
 
At this point I'll take some token flakes. Just give me something. It hasn't snowed at RDU for 413 days.
 
ryan1234 said:
I still think that most of us have a decent shot at scoring before winter is over. I also believe that modeling won't even show this hypothetical system until we get within the 3-5 day range. It's not going to show up in the LR modeling. Given how poorly they've performed, why would we even expect that?
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No, they perform poorly when they model cold and snow. Warm and rain is dead on. There is nothing in the pattern in the next three weeks that gives cause for hope to score a winter storm. After that, It's Spring and we are well-done, battered and deep-fried. Get used to the 95 degree heat! Truly the south has the worst weather in the nation.
 
Broken024 said:
Just go all in on the CFS. No worries boys
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Yes it a good one to go all in on :rolleyes: It's COLD fab feb it advertised forever, just had a change of heart as we near FAIL FEB! As usual for that model, it verifies well 5 days or less before the month begins.....................................
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Yes it a good one to go all in on :rolleyes: It's COLD fab feb it advertised forever, just had a change of heart as we near FAIL FEB! As usual for that model, it verifies well 5 days or less before the month begins.....................................
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I'd give this a 95% odds of happening. We are all good boys.
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weatherfide said:
No, they perform poorly when they model cold and snow. Warm and rain is dead on. There is nothing in the pattern in the next three weeks that gives cause for hope to score a winter storm. After that, It's Spring and we are well-done, battered and deep-fried. Get used to the 95 degree heat! Truly the south has the worst weather in the nation.
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Well, we can agree to disagree. Declaring winter over before our snowiest month arrives is just as irresponsible as calling for a major winter storm a week in advance. We also don't have the worst weather in the nation. That would be SoCal and a lot of the Southwest. The weather there is extremely boring and for the most part, uneventful.
 
Think we're going to pretty much know if there's a shot or if this is another rug pull relatively soon from what I saw on the GFS and I'm a lot more interested in the first 10-14 days of February than a month period that's starting late in the month. If it is a rug pull, I'm going to throw in my towel.
 
Parker said:
18z GEFS almost identical to the 12z EPS. Still looking good for WNC mountain areas. Jimmy, when do we bite on this one for chasing?
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Well, I bit last Friday but I need to unbite by Wednesday if I want to stay home and keep my security deposit..I’m going to keep model watching for a few more days. I feel decent about it though
 
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