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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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I also have some questions about these phases.

What's the difference between the composites and significance? And why are they different?

Do I go with the composites or the significance when creating a long range forecast?

@Webberweather53 would be able to help me out on this with technical details I know for sure. But if anyone has further information, please add.
636dfa271f0872715073dd1adec391d4.jpg


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WxWatch said:
I also have some questions about these phases.

What's the difference between the composites and significance? And why are they different?

Do I go with the composites or the significance when creating a long range forecast?

@Webberweather53 would be able to help me out on this with technical details I know for sure. But if anyone has further information, please add.
636dfa271f0872715073dd1adec391d4.jpg


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The composites are the mean response for a given phase over an entire tri-monthly period, the significance plots tell you if the anomaly is meaningful or not. Lower values on the significance plot (blues/purples) correspond significant temperature anomalies while warm colors are not. These are somewhat useful but keep in mind that the RMM MJO only explains a fraction (33%) of the total variance in subseasonal tropical variability, and of that subseasonal tropical variability only explains a portion of the total variance in our weather. It's not meaningless by any means nor a proverbial panacea for diagnosing and forecasting in the medium-longer term. You also have to understand how receptive the mid-latitudes are to this prescribed forcing, the nature of the MJO event (how much of it is partitioned into various convectively coupled equatorial wave types (for ex, Kelvin, Rossby, Mixed-Rossby Gravity, TD-type (tropical cyclones) ,etc), its forward speed and amplitude, how will it interact w/ standing waves in the tropics, how strongly coupled the MJO is to the mid-latitude circulation. etc. among other things)
 
We have flurries here in north Alabama. Didn’t know we had a shot at anything
 
WxWatch said:
I have some questions about the MJO.

1. What does it mean for us in the Southeastern US when the MJO is weak/non-active? (within the circle on MJO diagrams) Does that mean the temperatures could go either way, above or below normal? As well as precipitation?
WARM
2. Are there any best accurate MJO forecasts that have a good verification score?
DOESNT MATTER IT ENDS WARM
3. Where can I view the forecasts of the MJO from different models?
SEE ANSWER TO #2
Thanks in advance!

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Well I made the snow gun and used it for a couple hours this morning. It made about 10ft x 15th patch of snow. So I'm not shut out :)

Trying to load some pictures but it's telling me the upload file is too large.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The composites are the mean response for a given phase over an entire tri-monthly period, the significance plots tell you if the anomaly is meaningful or not. Lower values on the significance plot (blues/purples) correspond significant temperature anomalies while warm colors are not. These are somewhat useful but keep in mind that the RMM MJO only explains a fraction (33%) of the total variance in subseasonal tropical variability, and of that subseasonal tropical variability only explains a portion of the total variance in our weather. It's not meaningless by any means nor a proverbial panacea for diagnosing and forecasting in the medium-longer term. You also have to understand how receptive the mid-latitudes are to this prescribed forcing, the nature of the MJO event (how much of it is partitioned into various convectively coupled equatorial wave types (for ex, Kelvin, Rossby, Mixed-Rossby Gravity, TD-type (tropical cyclones) ,etc), its forward speed and amplitude, how will it interact w/ standing waves in the tropics, how strongly coupled the MJO is to the mid-latitude circulation. etc. among other things)
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Thanks for the good detailed answer. I also have a question about the MJO diagrams. What does it mean when the MJO is near or within the circle? I know that it means that the MJO is weak/non-active. But what does that mean for the weather pattern? Could we see equal chances of BN/AN as well as precipitation? I know that the MJO isn't the only mechanism of driving the weather and that results can vary depending on other factors within the pattern.

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Nerman said:
Well I made the snow gun and used it for a couple hours this morning. It made about 10ft x 15th patch of snow. So I'm not shut out :)

Trying to load some pictures but it's telling me the upload file is too large.
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I don’t know if you have Snapchat but I open the photo in Snapchat and then export it to my images and it makes the file size smaller
 
Nerman said:
Well I made the snow gun and used it for a couple hours this morning. It made about 10ft x 15th patch of snow. So I'm not shut out :)

Trying to load some pictures but it's telling me the upload file is too large.
Click to expand...
Hey... sometimes we gotta do what we gotta do.... win at all cost :)
 
Rain Cold said:
It's a sad commentary in itself that we're relegated to celebrating seasonal temps in winter. 55 and 65 suck equally IMO. 75-80, different story. But any way you slice it, it ain't gonna feel or look like we want it to for a while. Hopefully, later in Feb, we'll get a few table scraps before calendar Spring sets in.
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Probably the most hopeless winter since maybe 2012. And before that probably the 90’s. Even in our “crap” winters of 05, 07 and 08 we had small events. But, hopefully this is one of those 1 in 10 yr winters we have to endure.
 
KyloG said:
Probably the most hopeless winter since maybe 2012. And before that probably the 90’s. Even in our “crap” winters of 05, 07 and 08 we had small events. But, hopefully this is one of those 1 in 10 yr winters we have to endure.
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I remember long stretches of snowless winters south of Atlanta, though. 2003 through 2007 comes to mind. Also, the nineties were lame, except for the super storm.
 
weatherfide said:
I remember long stretches of snowless winters south of Atlanta, though. 2003 through 2007 comes to mind. Also, the nineties were lame, except for the super storm.
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Exactly, I’m sure in the bad 90s people though snow would never happen again. Thankfully I was too young to care that much as I do now. Everything evens out over time. We will have great winters stretches again and then have bad ones. All we can do is hope next year is better and keep repeating it until it happens.


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Is it true the site is shutting down for good because of how winter behaved I noticed the message at the top
 
NoSnowATL said:
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The CFS actually still looks good in early February. Ridging over Eastern Pacific and Europe, causing the single PV to become elongated, this would be a good thing of course. I'm still expecting that the temps will be below normal through early February to possibly much BN by mid month.
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