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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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7 years ago today. One of the best events around here in the last decade only because of how strange it was. Zero hype the day before. Later on in the day of the 16th temps were in the mid to low 40’s and then boom out of nowhere heavy snow started falling and fell for the duration of the event with temperatures in the upper 30’s to near 40 degrees. Thundersnow was reported around GSP. I remember accumulating a quick 3”. Rates overcame that day. B6AFEBF1-AC80-4803-BC79-00E83640F0F7.jpeg738D9167-CDF0-449C-AEF5-3322B9294030.jpeg
 
Shaggy said:
This is me. Looks good its an solid threat but nothing is written in stone yet. Still have a couple of days to watch it.
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Closest we've come all winter and the ensembles keep putting you and I in the sweet spot. You know as well as I do, that's good and bad haha.
 
This has over performer written all over imo, webb and others have mentioned how horrible models handle northern extent of overrunning precip. And in the possibility of a late blooming coastal.....who knows ??
 
metwannabe said:
This has over performer written all over imo, webb and others have mentioned how horrible models handle northern extent of overrunning precip. And in the possibility of a late blooming coastal.....who knows ??
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I noticed it has become closer even for N GA. Just compare 18Z to 6Z on the GFS.
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Another tick of higher precip and the temps should drop further, allowing for snow.
 
metwannabe said:
Yes I am and no I'm not excited haha, I'm cautiously optimistic
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Same here. My 2 biggest concerns are having the best frontogenesis sitting along the nc/sc border and we have light green over us on radar but can't overcome the dry layer in between 850 and 925 or we get better frontogenesis but we stay too warm at 925 to the sfc and it's 36 and rain scenario
 
Atleast we are finally seeing some modest levels of consistency and a little better agreement over the last 18-24 hours.
 
Flo said:
CAE will never get snow again. This is getting ridiculous.
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Good! Then maybe you'll finally move to North Dakota. You claimed Brick repeated himself. The pot calling the kettle.... Haha!

At least Brick seems like a positive individual. It's only weather.
 
Looks like I might be headed back up to NE Alabama this week
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metwannabe said:
If I was in northern NC I'd be mildly excited......
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I wish I lived S/E of Raleigh now (like Rain Cold’s area) rather than Durham. I thought we were supposed to get more snow here. ?

Of course, at the rate this one is trending the last 12-18 hours, we’re all going to wish we were in Blacksburg soon enough. Or DC...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Looks like the Euro/EPS have screwed the pooch on this one & have been behind the curve from the onset. Everyone that was worried about having this model on board before seriously believing this threat have egg on their face. It was honestly kind of strange to see the EPS and Euro more progressive with the northern stream than the GFS a few days ago, it’s almost always the other way around, this fact certainly left me scratching my head. Moral of the story here: no matter how good a model and its ensemble suite are, they are never infallible & it’s rarely a good idea to put all or even a majority of your eggs into one basket.

This looks like a very legit threat for the I 40 corridor (TN, NC, upstate SC, and VA), Warm advection, isentropic upglide, & frontogenesis will be the primary forcing agents for ascent here, most of the time global models will low ball the magnitude of one, two, or all of the above due to their coarse spatiotemporal resolutions, leading to more widespread and intense precip verifying
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This post deserves an...

****ALEEEET**** ****ALEEET****

Old timers will get it, anyways. :)
 
Trying to learn a little more about what to look for on the models with future storms. What went wrong with this storm for Middle Georgia and what would it have taken and still take for it to get back to the Euro and GFS runs from the other day?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
7 years ago today. One of the best events around here in the last decade only because of how strange it was. Zero hype the day before. Later on in the day of the 16th temps were in the mid to low 40’s and then boom out of nowhere heavy snow started falling and fell for the duration of the event with temperatures in the upper 30’s to near 40 degrees. Thundersnow was reported around GSP. I remember accumulating a quick 3”. Rates overcame that day. View attachment 34642View attachment 34643
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I was in Rock hill. I saw the band forming in the foot hills and drove up 77 to my dads house. Got there and the sky looked like a Summer day due to the convective nature of the set up and it was in the mid 40s. 30 mins later after getting there. I heard a crack of thunder, then it poured graupal and covered the ground in seconds. Turned into a moderate to heavy snow for several hours. Got about 3-4 inches. Was a fun experience and gained a lot of knowledge on convective snow.
 
The family and I are at Great Wolf Lodge in Concord until Tuesday. Kids are out of school Monday and Tuesday. Probably not the only days they will be out this week. Fun at the water park, and then fun in the snow later on.
 
Brick Tamland said:
The family and I are at Great Wolf Lodge in Concord until Tuesday. Kids are out of school Monday and Tuesday. Probably not the only days they will be out this week. Fun at the water park, and then fun in the snow later on.
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Your meltdown is gonna be epic when you get blanked!?
 
Regardless of what happens, its nice to finally have a legit event to track. I feel like that is what we have been lacking all winter.
 
I’ve never really been enthused with this one and I’m still unimpressed. The flow is just too flat in my opinion to produce much of anything in the SE. I suppose it can change, but it’s running out of time.
 
I do think there will be moisture much north of what the euro shows, just temps man.. freakin' temps. timing. ugh
 
Shawn said:
I do think there will be moisture much north of what the euro shows, just temps man.. freakin' temps. timing. ugh
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Mid 30’s DP’s north of Richmond VA prior to precip is not going to get it done..and that’s what the NAM was showing at 84hr...I’m skeptical that it trends better
 
5 years ago today was the first of many February snow and ice storms to hit the southeast over the next few weeks and Was probably the most epic February ever for many folks. I had snow on the ground for well over 2 weeks and most of the time was more then 2 inches. That is impressive for any winter month let alone late February. My average high for that February was 13 degrees below normal at 37.7 degrees and my average low was 11 degrees below normal at 18.1 Degrees.
 

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