At this point considering I haven't had a flake IMBY since December 2018, I'll consider token flakes a win for RDU even though this should have potential to be something much more.
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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
- Status
13 more Euro runs beats 52 GFS runs any day
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I'll certainly cash out on that kind of idea. Then give me some 60s and 70s in March instead of winter like weather and hopefully actually dry out some. I'd like for those normal tendencies to break.
I still don't want a cold March and I'll stick by that as I think we've gotten into a deal that's been tough to break (and if we had a more average March, maybe we can break it), but I'm certainly not all out on the idea of a winter storm in the last week of February or close. In fact, I said earlier I have a feeling we might see 1 more thing.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
ForsythSnow
Moderator
A little seconds won't hurt... Especially if it's more than the first.
I want to write out more about my predictions, but I'm not going to write much. I publish my own predictions on a weather forurm, but yet I get trolled instead of being asked questions about my predictions -- questions like, "why do you think the low would form there?" "why do you think there could be a phase?" How strong do think the low could get?
Some (not naming) are trolling me, I'm not the one trolling -- it's disdainful! And it's disdainful that some think I'm tripping -- which I already have said; I'm absolutely not tripping.
So what that I'm wrong on some of my predictions? I'm not going to get every single thing right -- at least I try and have the guts to publicize my own predictions. I actually have a good overall accuracy rating on my Facebook weather page, which has been up for 8 years.
About the 1 out of 200 year storm statement I said, the storm could turn out to be 1 out of a 200 year storm if there is 2 - 3 days of frozen precip, and amounts. Some places just may get feet of snow -- I can see that happening with overrunning, and put on top of that, an actual low pressure bringing more snow.
Sit back and watch the "magic" happen on the models....
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Some (not naming) are trolling me, I'm not the one trolling -- it's disdainful! And it's disdainful that some think I'm tripping -- which I already have said; I'm absolutely not tripping.
So what that I'm wrong on some of my predictions? I'm not going to get every single thing right -- at least I try and have the guts to publicize my own predictions. I actually have a good overall accuracy rating on my Facebook weather page, which has been up for 8 years.
About the 1 out of 200 year storm statement I said, the storm could turn out to be 1 out of a 200 year storm if there is 2 - 3 days of frozen precip, and amounts. Some places just may get feet of snow -- I can see that happening with overrunning, and put on top of that, an actual low pressure bringing more snow.
Sit back and watch the "magic" happen on the models....
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Please just drop the historic part. Drop it to a decent snowstorm but no more than a foot at best and it'll be believable. If you want to make a prediction explain your process and show. Otherwise it's not a sound prediction.
You guys know by Sunday all of this will have disappeared, right? It’s the way this winter has gone. I’m gonna go ahead and call it. No boardwide snow event this winter.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
You're forgetting last weekend clearly. The odds were against us but we prevailed better than modeled. Sure it wasn't board wide but it was a weak signal that got exponentially stronger
Cadi40
Member
I can definitely foresee the models dropping this in the near future, I’m cautiously optimistic as this season has been full of several disappointments.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Have we seen the Euro show a storm for NC inside 7 days this winter? I think I remember the Euro and GFS showing storms 10 to 14 days out, only for them to go poof. But I don't recall the Euro showing one inside 7 days before this one.
Nerman
Member
No fantasy runs. Though there were some runs from our Ana-front in November.
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smast16
Member
I was just poking through your thread of past runs, and it looks like the closest the euro gets is ~9 days. So Brick is right on this.
Stormlover
Member
Is that HUGE signature really needed? It's way, way too big. Anyway, next week's 6-10 day temps have changed drastically since yesterday
You know what, it seems as if I'm not welcome here. The first time I came here, I was banned literally for no reason - the reason for being banned: it said, "for being a fuc**** c***
I gave this site a 2nd try and I created a new account, came back in 2018, and the same thing is happening. Everything that I post, gets "stomped" into the "dirt" and when I comment back to posters, at times things turn into arguments -- which gets a bit ridiculous.
If my prediction comes true, I'm sure you all would want me back....
I'm outta here....
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I gave this site a 2nd try and I created a new account, came back in 2018, and the same thing is happening. Everything that I post, gets "stomped" into the "dirt" and when I comment back to posters, at times things turn into arguments -- which gets a bit ridiculous.
If my prediction comes true, I'm sure you all would want me back....
I'm outta here....
Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
Don't leave man, I enjoy your analysis.
atlweatherman
Member
I actually enjoy your analysis and truly appreciate the time you take to explain your predictions. Please don't give up and leave.
Nah dude you said it would form in the deep tropics and be a hurricane that has snow. If that doesn't happen your forecast is wrong, you can't claim something else. End of story.
Cool have fun
He gone.
Rosie
Member
Sorry to soo you and your ideas go.
I remember you and Webb had some beef on your old account. Though that’s unbelievable as a admin would ban you with that description even if you deserved it (not saying you did), still rude.
Onto your forecasts. Sometimes feel that your predictions are almost wish-casting. Look at it from this angle, you say that a strong subtropical jet and right timing= Major 1/200 blizzard. Think of the odds of that happening. Without anything like model support, I recommend trending with caution for that because we can’t see why a conclusion can be made essentially from facts. If somebody were unbiased and looking at the same exact data, they would never come up with your conclusion. Nonetheless, I enjoy your analysis when it’s realistic, Out of some of the members on here I can tell that you know a lot. We all dream of what you’re forecasting, but would never in a million years forecast it (maybe 1/200).
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18z GFS continues the overall trend towards the EURO solution regarding west coast upper air action around hour 84-120. This period is where the models start to split. GFS, oddly enough, is much less progressive and holds energy out west and consolidates the BBL in the pacific sw... meanwhile the EURO is more progressive (odd too) and thus gives enough energy to prevent the south from being super-blocked yet cold enough to support the STJ juice becoming snow across the area. If GFS continues this trend, it'll have a similar outcome. Bias correcting this type of system will be a very tricky task as it is definitely not classic.
Storm5
Member
He wasn’t banned with a description period . If any admin ever did anything like that they would be permanently banned
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pcbjr
Member
And just as I posted that... 18z GFS surface conditions in for the mischief we've been watching for euro... GFS wants on board, perhaps...
Come on man, you can’t predict a blizzard hurricane shooting north out of the tropics and not expect to catch hell lol. No one is laughing at you because no one believes that you truly believe that is going to happen. I think a lot of people here feel like they are being trolled. Got to have some thick skin in here man. We all dish and take. You’re painting a target in your back and that’s ok as long as you can handle the heat that comes with it
You didn't have to leave, many are just tired of the nonsense posts. And you have made many of those.
Front's here!
southernskimmer
Member
- Joined
- Dec 14, 2016
- Messages
- 62
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- 135
I’m, for one, am rooting for the great snowicane of 2020
Brent
Member
The GFS is such a joke
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
How far does 18z euro go out? 144?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I believe so. It's not yet in range.
packfan98
Moderator
96 I think. EPS goes to 144.
LetItSnow
Member
Just let me know when this happens..
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Should be able to see the over running at 144 right
pcbjr
Member
January 2020 ... already happened ...Just let me know when this happens..
I'm very much aware how big of a piece of dog excrement the GFS is, but a broken clock is right twice a day. And I just hope this isn't one of those times.
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