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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Rain Cold said:
NYET!

Yeah, the vortex is way to tight. No AO, no NAO, no EPO, no nothing to break it apart and displace it south.

This is why blocking and/or ridging out west is so important for us. Can it snow without blocking? Yes. But blocking displaces the PV or part of it southward enough so that cold air is available to us. Those little ripples/waves in the flow up there are just going to circle around that light blue area, with high pressure riding along in their wake. But they're way up there.

You look at some of these EPS maps and see all that blue stuff over the southern US, and it looks all nice. But it's just representative of lower heights, largely induced by the STJ. It doesn't snow just because the maps show a blue area through your backyard. It doesn't snow just because there's red in Canada. It doesn't snow just because a storm tracks south of you. We need a mechanism to allow that cold way up there to funnel down. Clearly, that image won't get it done.

But it's not over. Disaster hasn't run the board yet. We still have the IWishItWouldSnow category left, that includes a daily double.

February is our best climo month -- for $200
El Ninos favor blocking late in the winter -- for $400
The CFS is cold -- for $600
So is the JMA -- for $800
BAMwx has thrown in the towel -- for $1000
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**For decades, southern weather posters have touted “That storm can’t possibly cut into______” THIS type of atmospheric pressure
 
Lickwx said:
GEPS ? Isn't that the most cold biased of them all. Look man , if your wishcasting it say it but if your model hugging favorite models and ignoring the ones that don’t look like you want and trying to pass it off as a forecast then that’s disingenuous and no better than joe bastardi.


In other news enjoy the upcoming cold shot because while warmth is supported afterwards. Do we really know ? I’m probably the only one here who loved last weeks warmth . Almost made 5 straight nights above 60 in January at RDU. Had it not been for Wednesday morning breaking the streak we would have made it!
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When there are more more models agreeing with each other, versus two, that's the most likely the outcome. Yes, some models are cold biased, but I'm not taking one model that is the coldest of them all. I'm using the models that agree with each other of large scale features that will lead to the cold. It's way too early to determine mesoscale climates of temps/features of the surface and upper air. The main thing at this stage to look for is model agreement, large scale features and upper/lower air temp anomalies.
 
She’s going to be in Phase 8 soon....
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NoSnowATL said:
Imagine if you got a T and 15 mins away got 6in. Yea that happened!


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Just imagine squeezing out less than an inch while places 15-25 miles away are picking up anywhere from 3"-9" of snow. Yeah, that happened in February 2004. It was like night and day watching it pouring snow in Winnsboro than it was at my locale.

That was the first time I realized how sharp the cutoff can be. It happened again in January 2011, but fortunately I was on the "right side" of the razor thin cutoff. ?
 
ColaSnow said:
Just imagine squeezing out less than an inch while places 15-25 miles away are picking up anywhere from 3"-9" of snow. Yeah, that happened in February 2004. It was like night and day watching it pouring snow in Winnsboro than it was at my locale.

That was the first time I realized how sharp the cutoff can be. It happened again in January 2011, but fortunately I was on the "right side" of the razor thin cutoff. ?
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I remember that because I was working over there before I had moved there. Isn't Blythewood 4-500' in elevation? That can certainly make a difference in a razor thin situation when downtown Cola is 2-250'.
 
J.C. said:
I remember that because I was working over there before I had moved there. Isn't Blythewood 4-500' in elevation? That can certainly make a difference in a razor thin situation when downtown Cola is 2-250'.
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Not sure of Blythewood's elevation, to be honest, lol. I was living in Columbia proper at the time (actually, about 7 miles from where I currently reside). Blythewood may have picked up an inch or inch and a half from that particular storm.

It was places like Fairfield County (the adjacent county from me) that racked up. I recall someone, who resided in Winnsboro (but worked in Columbia), on the news and talked about how things were so different per their home and where they worked. A reporter on either WIS or WLTX was giving reports from outta Winnsboro. I was like WTF?! LOL
 
ColaSnow said:
Not sure of Blythewood's elevation, to be honest, lol. I was living in Columbia proper at the time (actually, about 7 miles from where I currently reside). Blythewood may have picked up an inch or inch and a half from that particular storm.

It was places like Fairfield County (the adjacent county from me) that racked up. I recall someone, who resided in Winnsboro (but worked in Columbia), on the news and talked about how things were so different per their home and where they worked. A reporter on either WIS or WLTX was giving reports from outta Winnsboro. I was like WTF?! LOL
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That one hurt my feelings a lot. I was in 6th grade. It was like sleeting and raining all day from what I remember, then for like a brief period it switched to all snow here in Lexington and it was puking snow, then went back to sleet & rain. But youre right, just up in Fairfield county got like 3-8 inches of snow. I remember that weekend, my dad lived in Charlotte and he came and picked me up. Watching the snow banks get higher and higher on 77 was wild.
 
KyloG said:
2 years ago today we were watching the Euro OP come in with this.

It seems insurmountable that we ever see anything like this again.

View attachment 31321
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Sure we will. It can’t never snow again in the SE. The west coast sucked for years. They talked about sky slopes closing early and running out of water due to low snow packs. It will flip back.


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