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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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I never thought I would say this, but I'm ready for summer time, 90s, afternoon storms, etc. At least then the weather does the f what it's SUPPOSED TO DO!!
 
I wonder how negative this forum would be had it been around for the nonwinter of 1889-90, when ATL averaged over 54 F, which is 3+ warmer than the current winter should end up at and when the station was both further north and with no airport to warm it up so much on radiational cooling nights! So, I can only imagine how warm it would have been had there been a Hartsfield airport then. I think it easily could have been 55!

The very next winter, 1890-1 ended up 8+ colder at ~46 (near normal)! The subsequent winter, 1891-2, was at 44. Then came the cold winter of 1892-3, with 41.5 and one of the heaviest snows on record in January of 1893 with a whopping 9.6" and 10.6" for the winter! The winter after that, 1893-4 had a Fab Feb with 6"! Then came the historic winter of 1894-5, which gave KATL a record 13.2" for the winter and only 40 F for the average! This is just an illustration that it can be very dark just before things brighten up considerably.

Speaking of brightening up after the very dark winter of 1889-90, it brightened up even earlier than the subsequent winters. Whereas DJF's coldest at ATL was only down to 27, it got down to the teens twice the following month (3/2 and 3/16)! Whereas they had only 11 freezes in DJF, they had 10 in March, alone, including one day with a 30 high! 3/1-17 had 2 wintry events and was a whopping 10 BN (42), which is even colder than the coldest 17 day stretch of normals in January by 1 degree! Even way down here in SAV there were flurries in March and a coldest of 26 three different days, which is colder than the coldest at ATL in DJF of 27!

Something similar happened after the very warm winter of 1931-2, which averaged 52 and had a coldest of only down to 26, only 8 freezes, and no frozen precip. Then came March with 10 freezes/1 subfreezing high (28) and 3 lows in the teens (lowest of 15 on 3/10)! 3/1-15 had 2 measurable snows and was a whopping 10 BN (42). SAV's coldest in March was 24, which is 3 colder than the coldest at ATL of 27 in DJF.
 
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The one bright spot from this ensemble run is that in 10 or so days the globals will be modeling into March and this miserable met winter will be over.

3DFF210C-7A46-48B2-99FD-405490F92E6B.png
 
Yep
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SD said:
Funny thing is we are going to ugly this up so bad that it might sneak something through between the 15th and 25th
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At this point if we get a .5” car topper I would be pissed. I want the goose egg
 
GaWx said:
I wonder how negative this forum would be had it been around for the nonwinter of 1889-90, when ATL averaged over 54 F, which is 3+ warmer than the current winter should end up at and when the station was both further north and with no airport to warm it up so much on radiational cooling nights! So, I can only imagine how warm it would have been had there been a Hartsfield airport then. I think it easily could have been 55!

The very next winter, 1890-1 ended up 8+ colder at ~46 (near normal)! The subsequent winter, 1891-2, was at 44. Then came the cold winter of 1892-3, with 41.5 and one of the heaviest snows on record in January of 1893 with a whopping 9.6" and 10.6" for the winter! The winter after that, 1893-4 had a Fab Feb with 6"! Then came the historic winter of 1894-5, which gave KATL a record 13.2" for the winter and only 40 F for the average! This is just an illustration that it can be very dark just before things brighten up considerably.

Speaking of brightening up after the very dark winter of 1889-90, it brightened up even earlier than the subsequent winters. Whereas DJF's coldest at ATL was only down to 27, it got down to the teens twice the following month (3/2 and 3/16)! Whereas they had only 11 freezes in DJF, they had 10 in March, alone, including one day with a 30 high! 3/1-17 had 2 wintry events and was a whopping 10 BN (42), which is even colder than the coldest 17 day stretch of normals in January by 1 degree! Even way down here in SAV there were flurries in March and a coldest of 26 three different days, which is colder than the coldest at ATL in DJF of 27!

Something similar happened after the very warm winter of 1931-2, which averaged 52 and had a coldest of only down to 26, only 8 freezes, and no frozen precip. Then came March with 10 freezes/1 subfreezing high (28) and 3 lows in the teens (lowest of 15 on 3/10)! 3/1-15 had 2 measurable snows and was a whopping 10 BN (42). SAV's coldest in March was 24, which is 3 colder than the coldest at ATL of 27 in DJF.
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And parts of the upper south have something to track late week (albeit chance is limited)
 
KyloG said:
At this point if we get a .5” car topper I would be pissed. I want the goose egg
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Ha you know once you start wanting the goose egg the long range will start getting cold. In all seriousness though if there is any validity to getting the pv into the hudson bay region toward mid month this look probably gives us a low end event.
 

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SD said:
Ha you know once you start wanting the goose egg the long range will start getting cold. In all seriousness though if there is any validity to getting the pv into the hudson bay region toward mid month this look probably gives us a low end event.
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At some point before this winter is all said and done we'll find a way to get a token cold snap and flizzard.
 
SD said:
Ha you know once you start wanting the goose egg the long range will start getting cold. In all seriousness though if there is any validity to getting the pv into the hudson bay region toward mid month this look probably gives us a low end event.
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If we can get the center or the ridge where I drew the green blob I would be more optimistic. Otherwise severe season starts earlier.

428AAFE3-B169-407C-88CD-5BD2BACF171A.jpeg
 
I do hope winter returns but the flooding/severe weather potential has my attention for Thursday!


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tramadoc said:
How? One is tickborne and the other is airborne. There is zero correlation. One is bacterial and the other is viral. Two different routes of transmission.
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I was clearly making a poor attempt at a joke. Or, maybe not so clear. LOL. Sorry about that. Corona beer and a “lime”.
 
So, is this Super Bowl going to be good or are we about to see all the memes again?

I think yes on good, but we'll see.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Yeah that one has left me a little stumped this winter. I’ve thought about it a lot actually
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El Nino's are wet.

What I'd like to see is the wave lengths to break though as I think we're stuck in a predictable pattern. Would actually not mind if something was snuck in during the final two weeks of February, but we need to be average to above throughout March, please.

Which means we're not going to be most likely, aren't we? Gonna repeat everything I bet as usual. Colder than February in March (and for me, not much of a chance at anything), then sometime late in March we're going to get really warm, then in April its going to pretty much be summer like without much of a break, the heat will continue for a while, in the first week of October, we might be aggravatingly hot, like reaching 100 degrees hot, then after that, we'll cool down, November will be cold for November, then we'll be warm in December, maybe sneak in some wintry, then...

Think we get it now.
 
From Shreveport Louisiana to Atlanta Georgia this winter has been horrible the
I-20 areas in the deep south can't buy a snowstorm just rain and dry with above normal temps #rinse #wash #repeat
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
El Nino's are wet.

What I'd like to see is the wave lengths to break though as I think we're stuck in a predictable pattern. Would actually not mind if something was snuck in during the final two weeks of February, but we need to be average to above throughout March, please.

Which means we're not going to be most likely, aren't we? Gonna repeat everything I bet as usual. Colder than February in March (and for me, not much of a chance at anything), then sometime late in March we're going to get really warm, then in April its going to pretty much be summer like without much of a break, the heat will continue for a while, in the first week of October, we might be aggravatingly hot, like reaching 100 degrees hot, then after that, we'll cool down, November will be cold for November, then we'll be warm in December, maybe sneak in some wintry, then...

Think we get it now.
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IKR... and I admit I'm getting disgustingly sick of this. I hope this is not all we have left of our weather future. This is almost damning. :(
 
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