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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Snowless & Grumpy said:
Welp, here we are, Feb 1st and snowless (I'm sorry but a trace doesn't count) for the metro areas from ATL to RDU. And the pattern looks just like it has since December, CRAP! This should leave no doubt for anyone that this winter is not making some kind of miraculous comeback for the SE. The best we can hope for is a miracle to fluke our way into a storm after mid month. But can't help but hope we have an above average spring for a change. At least then it may give me some hope that the seemingly endless cycle of below average springs, below average November's and torch winters may break.
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Now that's off your chest ... Netflix and chill for the evening ... ;)
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
RIP winter 19/20! I'm hoping for a March 2012 repeat! Will be a nice change!
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I think you should change your name to "no longer snowless and happy". Maybe even make a happy puppy's pic your new avatar. :D

Well, we've just experienced a pretty wintry last 2 weeks. Finally! And today has been downright cold all day. It is way too early imo to declare RIP winter when all one can halfway reasonably see into the future is 2 weeks (via the 4 times a day movie presentations). Analogs say don't bet the farm on RIP.

But I would largely declare RIP if we assume winter ends two weeks from now. The combo of teles was historically the worst on record (from a SE cold lover's perspective) in DJF back in mid Jan. So, getting a repeat in Feb would be insane. However, they sure are making an effort to again be terrible, regardless, during the 2nd week of this month! I'm talking about the combo of AO, NAO, PNA, MJO, and AAM, which is likely leading toward a resurgence during the 2nd week in Feb of the strong and persistent SER. Whereas the MJO won't be nearly as bad, it doesn't look to be good and the other 4 are headed down the ole commode again! But at some point after we get past this 2nd commodeful of teles, that's imo when we can start looking for signs of cold finally dominating for an extensive period of time. Keep in mind that the Arctic's coldest daily normals are still over 3 weeks away! And with the predicted extremely high AO for the next 2 weeks, the Arctic is not likely to warm up appreciably, if at all, anytime soon. This may even be one of those winters where the coldest there is in March.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Welp, here we are, Feb 1st and snowless (I'm sorry but a trace doesn't count) for the metro areas from ATL to RDU. And the pattern looks just like it has since December, CRAP! This should leave no doubt for anyone that this winter is not making some kind of miraculous comeback for the SE. The best we can hope for is a miracle to fluke our way into a storm after mid month. But can't help but hope we have an above average spring for a change. At least then it may give me some hope that the seemingly endless cycle of below average springs, below average November's and torch winters may break.
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We were in the same place in 2014-2015, without a single flake until mid-February IIRC, and then......

february_16-17_2015_nc_snowmap.gif


february_18_2015_nc_snowmap.png


february_24_2015_nc_snowmap.png


february_25-26_2015_nc_snowmap.png
 
GaWx said:
I think you should change your name to "no longer snowless and happy". Maybe even make a happy puppy's pic your new avatar. :D

Well, we've just experienced a pretty wintry last 2 weeks. Finally! And today has been downright cold all day. It is way too early imo to declare RIP winter when all one can halfway reasonably see into the future is 2 weeks (via the 4 times a day movie presentations). Analogs say don't bet the farm on RIP.

But I would largely declare RIP if we assume winter ends two weeks from now. The combo of teles was historically the worst on record (from a SE cold lover's perspective) in DJF back in mid Jan. So, getting a repeat in Feb would be insane. However, they sure are making an effort to again be terrible, regardless, during the 2nd week of this month! I'm talking about the combo of AO, NAO, PNA, MJO, and AAM, which is likely leading toward a resurgence of the strong and persistent SER. Whereas the MJO won't be nearly as bad, it doesn't look to be good and the other 4 are headed down the ole commode again! But at some point after we get past this 2nd commodeful of teles, that's imo when we can start looking for signs of cold finally dominating for an extensive period of time. Keep in mind that the Arctic's coldest daily normals are still over 3 weeks away! And with the predicted extremely high AO for the next 2 weeks, the Arctic is not likely to warm up appreciably, if at all, anytime soon. This may even be one of those winters where the coldest there is in March.
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;)
 
Coronavirus reminds me of the old 2003 SARS/H1N1-2009 outbreaks, question is will it get worse/it future ? It’s no Ebola/Marburg and even not as bad as SARS but it’s very similar to the common flu, it could go either way, we start slowing it down and start preventing it (like SARS) it could burn out over time, or it could just spread, like H1N1 and become a seasonal virus, it definitely something that should have attention, but no need to panic over it, it’s not no Ebola lol
 
superjames1992 said:
We were in the same place in 2014-2015, without a single flake until mid-February IIRC, and then......

february_16-17_2015_nc_snowmap.gif


february_18_2015_nc_snowmap.png


february_24_2015_nc_snowmap.png


february_25-26_2015_nc_snowmap.png
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I know! There seems to be a lack of whining since our token flakes yesterday! Just trying to keep the wamby thread lit. Temps this coming week should make this place fill up again!
 
did I ever win weenie of the year I was banned I think did brickhaven girl win
 
Now everyone turns to Twitter to their favorite meteorologists/scientists for reasons why the models are wrong and will flip back soon. We’ve seen this over and over. You can believe that the models are consistently wrong past 5-7 days even on warm patterns and will give us a new look in a day or two. It’s not over until it’s all the way over.
 
Me my wife and kids. Enjoyed our little mountain trip. The snow in Hendersonville Friday. And the snow up on Soco mountain yesterday. But I’m not throwing in the towel for accumulating snow at home. We got February even March. Maybe we won’t see anything. But I still have to believe there’s a chance even though it’s small.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
I just figured out why Phil’s (@pcbjr) abode is also known as Hogtown! It makes perfect sense now.
Regarding the groundhog prediction, I agree winter is over if you only count through 2/20 or so.
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The original settlement (where Westside Park is) ... it was a settler/Indian community that grew pigs and watered them in the creek (Hogtown Creek) ...
 
Those Feb and Mar JB maps were just updated last week in case folks don’t notice.
By the way, his Saturday Summary is once again very late getting on the few website. It was just put there even though it says it was done 16 hours ago. It used to get on the free site by Saturday afternoon. But not the last few weeks.
 
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Okla City averages about what RDU averages for snow. They seem to be doing OK in this hell forsaken winter.

They go from the 70F’s to 6-8”.

DF0C96B1-99A0-4ED6-9C70-EDA4EF6B45A4.png712B4868-7115-418D-9509-A88C3741E378.png73E3C0E0-034D-4117-88A4-507343CA7A9F.png
 
Wow, JB actually referred to the GFS as “cold biased” in his Saturday Summary. Kudos! He almost never says that.

He also talked about being correct at 500 mb but that we unfortunately don’t live that high. That sounds like the infamous 2001-2 winter when the GFS cold bias was at its worst ever and he had one of his worst winter busts ever.

I have to give him a little credit. Doing these videos is probably not easy to do right now after his horrible bust to this point.
 
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