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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

Myfrotho704_ said:
hot take - other then areas along the escarpment (which is a microclimate in these sorts of setups), models nowadays typical are on point with cold air damming setups, other then a few rare times
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I think i mostly agree with that. It seems like the only busts we see is the length of sleet vs. freezing rain. I honestly do wonder how many surprise events in the past would still be surprise events with todays modelling.
 
BullCityWx said:
I think i mostly agree with that. It seems like the only busts we see is the length of sleet vs. freezing rain. I honestly do wonder how many surprise events in the past would still be surprise events with todays modelling.
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also another thing models bust at when it comes to wedging, is ruining your nice 74 degree day in April to it being 48 and foggy outside
 
Mitch West said:
Putting my desires aside for a second here. I think it's important to remember that it's January 5th. The ensembles go out 15 days & they change like a fart in the wind past day 7-10. And you mise well just forget about the extended or whatever the hell a control run is. Let's go back to what 95% of the people on this board have been saying since last Summer regarding this Winter.. And that is that this Winter was always supposed to be backloaded. We aren't at the backend yet. Now I will be with everyone else if we get to January 31st & we are looking two weeks out & seeing nothing but disappointment. But I think we look so hard at these models sometimes that it's like we live in the future. I don't know if that makes sense or not, but hopefully it does.

It's amazing how high & low we get in here from not just day to day, but the switch ups every 12 hours. It's like we know better, but we don't. Lol we post way to much on the highs, then way to much on the lows, which is something that's awesome about this place.. But it also is just a set up to be disappointed. Let's just relax and enjoy the ride.

Again, it's January 5th. We are going to pull in a banger in the coming weeks.
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Post of the day here
 
Mitch West said:
Putting my desires aside for a second here. I think it's important to remember that it's January 5th. The ensembles go out 15 days & they change like a fart in the wind past day 7-10. And you mise well just forget about the extended or whatever the hell a control run is. Let's go back to what 95% of the people on this board have been saying since last Summer regarding this Winter.. And that is that this Winter was always supposed to be backloaded. We aren't at the backend yet. Now I will be with everyone else if we get to January 31st & we are looking two weeks out & seeing nothing but disappointment. But I think we look so hard at these models sometimes that it's like we live in the future. I don't know if that makes sense or not, but hopefully it does.

It's amazing how high & low we get in here from not just day to day, but the switch ups every 12 hours. It's like we know better, but we don't. Lol we post way to much on the highs, then way to much on the lows, which is something that's awesome about this place.. But it also is just a set up to be disappointed. Let's just relax and enjoy the ride.

Again, it's January 5th. We are going to pull in a banger in the coming weeks.
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Great post!

And this live in the future part makes sense and is exactly what a lot of weather weenies do lol. I've seen people who were actually at the time of their post getting winter weather, legit complain that things looked horrible 10 days out.
 
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