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Misc Winter Weather Support Group
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
I’d go ahead and panic about that 384 hour depiction on the GFS. It’s definitely not a rookie move.
SouthSideYankee
Member
I wonder if we get some snowpack do the models start singing a different tune?. One can hope.
SnowNiner
Member
The thing is, it's like that every year now isn't it? Even the last several Nina years, they've been wet IIRC, even though Nina's are supposed to be dry.
Again, something in our planetary oceanic, atmospheric conditions makes a western trough, warm and wet SE happen every year. Dont know what it is, but it ain't Nina and Nino.
We had nina pattern past few winters but enough atlantic help to keep us wet and warm in January(s).
weatherfide
Member
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I just got my snow fix from watching traffic cams! I guess I'm satisfied now.
Well, any favorable pattern is coming after the 20th...so we going to need a lot of patience and I know I suck at patience. The next 2-3 weeks going to be painful...the torrential rains aren't going to help.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
It will all be worth it when you’re getting pounded by snow the last week of January.
weatherfide
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Everything looks bleak on ops and ensembles for 14 days. Sucks to waste prime climo on cutters and weak ass CAD. I'll wait until 1/13 and if I don't see a favorable change, this winter is getting called.
i thought that’s exactly how things were supposed to look? Webb said end of January.
weatherfide
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Yes, that's why I'll wait until mid-month, but if the pattern doesn't start to appear, it's the last chance. This parade of cutters will not work. Each cutter is getting warmer air out front, too.
This winter is more painful then C&B torture
JustinWx24
Member
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Be patient my friend. Good things come to those who wait. I've got a good feeling about Late January and Early February as others have mentioned.
Brick Tamland
Member
The only thing Nino brings us now is rain. Things just don't work like they used to with the way our climate is now. I don't think Nino gives us any more chance at snow than Nina now. It's just pure luck if the timing works out, and it works out less and less.
JustinWx24
Member
As far as the south, almost every mod-strong El Niño really gets going late Jan-Feb. Aleutian low locking the cold air north seems to be a common issue for the first half. That’s why it was wild seeing Mets hype up Dec lol. Between increasing snowpack to our north and the -NAO as the Greenland block intensifies in accordance to the El Niño signal, we can start getting the necessary cold air to phase with what’s already an active southern jet. Even the overused 2009-10 winter was trash til like late Jan.
NoSnowATL
Member
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JustinWx24
Member
I was actually just talking about this a few days ago. Here in GA, when I look at winters dating back to when I first moved here in 06, La Niña has often delivered compared to El Niño or even neutral positive winters. The jet stream configuration tends to be more extreme during -ENSO but when it enables eastern troughing for a few weeks like Jan ‘14/‘18/‘22, it delivers well.