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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

Myfrotho704_ said:
hot take - other then areas along the escarpment (which is a microclimate in these sorts of setups), models nowadays typical are on point with cold air damming setups, other then a few rare times
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I think i mostly agree with that. It seems like the only busts we see is the length of sleet vs. freezing rain. I honestly do wonder how many surprise events in the past would still be surprise events with todays modelling.
 
BullCityWx said:
I think i mostly agree with that. It seems like the only busts we see is the length of sleet vs. freezing rain. I honestly do wonder how many surprise events in the past would still be surprise events with todays modelling.
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also another thing models bust at when it comes to wedging, is ruining your nice 74 degree day in April to it being 48 and foggy outside
 
Mitch West said:
Putting my desires aside for a second here. I think it's important to remember that it's January 5th. The ensembles go out 15 days & they change like a fart in the wind past day 7-10. And you mise well just forget about the extended or whatever the hell a control run is. Let's go back to what 95% of the people on this board have been saying since last Summer regarding this Winter.. And that is that this Winter was always supposed to be backloaded. We aren't at the backend yet. Now I will be with everyone else if we get to January 31st & we are looking two weeks out & seeing nothing but disappointment. But I think we look so hard at these models sometimes that it's like we live in the future. I don't know if that makes sense or not, but hopefully it does.

It's amazing how high & low we get in here from not just day to day, but the switch ups every 12 hours. It's like we know better, but we don't. Lol we post way to much on the highs, then way to much on the lows, which is something that's awesome about this place.. But it also is just a set up to be disappointed. Let's just relax and enjoy the ride.

Again, it's January 5th. We are going to pull in a banger in the coming weeks.
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Post of the day here
 
Mitch West said:
Putting my desires aside for a second here. I think it's important to remember that it's January 5th. The ensembles go out 15 days & they change like a fart in the wind past day 7-10. And you mise well just forget about the extended or whatever the hell a control run is. Let's go back to what 95% of the people on this board have been saying since last Summer regarding this Winter.. And that is that this Winter was always supposed to be backloaded. We aren't at the backend yet. Now I will be with everyone else if we get to January 31st & we are looking two weeks out & seeing nothing but disappointment. But I think we look so hard at these models sometimes that it's like we live in the future. I don't know if that makes sense or not, but hopefully it does.

It's amazing how high & low we get in here from not just day to day, but the switch ups every 12 hours. It's like we know better, but we don't. Lol we post way to much on the highs, then way to much on the lows, which is something that's awesome about this place.. But it also is just a set up to be disappointed. Let's just relax and enjoy the ride.

Again, it's January 5th. We are going to pull in a banger in the coming weeks.
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Great post!

And this live in the future part makes sense and is exactly what a lot of weather weenies do lol. I've seen people who were actually at the time of their post getting winter weather, legit complain that things looked horrible 10 days out.
 
SD said:
There's a part of me that thinks we will see the eps lose the tuck under the Nao in time and more emphasis placed on the western trough
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Without a doubt...we've done this before.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
also another thing models bust at when it comes to wedging, is ruining your nice 74 degree day in April to it being 48 and foggy outside
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models struggle with CAD for a few reasons:
-how much solar radiation actually makes it to the surface is sometimes overestimated- models will render that fog layer as "sun" sometimes
-interface between stable surface layer and warm mid level- that's broken down via turbulent forces and tough microphysics for models to handle (they are making a lot of assumptions)
-topography is tough to render; CAMs have better vertical resolution which is why i like to let CAD events get within 60 hours or so before truly writing them off
-models are also terrible with the thermodynamics- both cooling from melting/sublimating snowflakes and the subsequent latent heat release of those raindrops back to sleet. that's a model forecast predicated on both the depth/intensity of the CAD and how much qpf falls- a model could theoretically have the preceding airmass perfect but could still be way off if the guidance on qpf is off by a wide margin

I still think they are by far the thorniest thing to predict around these parts and can really trip up models. one issue is that we haven't had a true, bona fide winter storm w wedging from hell to deal with in years. so there's a lot of mid tier events. the 1025s anchored on PA are easier on the models than the 1041s anchored in the fingerlakes. feb 13 2014 was a storm with a wedge from hell and i think if we had a storm of similar caliber, both in wedging and impact, we would see a lot of surprises as the storm was borne out. you're probably right on the marginal events though- getting easier for models to nail
 
ILMRoss said:
models struggle with CAD for a few reasons:
-how much solar radiation actually makes it to the surface is sometimes overestimated- models will render that fog layer as "sun" sometimes
-interface between stable surface layer and warm mid level- that's broken down via turbulent forces and tough microphysics for models to handle (they are making a lot of assumptions)
-topography is tough to render; CAMs have better vertical resolution which is why i like to let CAD events get within 60 hours or so before truly writing them off
-models are also terrible with the thermodynamics- both cooling from melting/sublimating snowflakes and the subsequent latent heat release of those raindrops back to sleet. that's a model forecast predicated on both the depth/intensity of the CAD and how much qpf falls- a model could theoretically have the preceding airmass perfect but could still be way off if the guidance on qpf is off by a wide margin

I still think they are by far the thorniest thing to predict around these parts and can really trip up models. one issue is that we haven't had a true, bona fide winter storm w wedging from hell to deal with in years. so there's a lot of mid tier events. the 1025s anchored on PA are easier on the models than the 1041s anchored in the fingerlakes. feb 13 2014 was a storm with a wedge from hell and i think if we had a storm of similar caliber, both in wedging and impact, we would see a lot of surprises as the storm was borne out. you're probably right on the marginal events though- getting easier for models to nail
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Yep. Even jan 2022, the first weekend winter storm had a pretty deep cold CAD event. sfc temps in low mid 20s, and that one busted cold not at the sfc but aloft at 925mb around the Charlotte area and turned what was suppose to be a big ZR event to a big sleet event
 
Since December 1st we've had 2 severe storm threads and 1 "winter storm" thread. I wonder if we finish this winter with more severe or more winter storm threads....

Tough call...if this was Vegas it would be even money.
 
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