They are almost never wrong when they show a spring pattern. They are almost never right when they show a winter pattern.
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Misc Winter Weather Support Group
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
I have decided what I hate the most about winter weather around here; down slopping. Eastern TN getting MORE snow, high mtns getting buried, even foothills getting at least something. Yet here in the upstate we are clear as a bell and in the 40s. I hate down slopping with a passion! This week is a perfect example of why lving in the lee of the mountains is torture for winter weather.
Enjoy the weather, it’s the only weather you get
rburrel2
Member
The agreement is uncanny!
The good news is it literally can't get any warmer than that...any future model runs will be an improvement.
It’s not an official winter, until fights break out in the main threads! Winter is officially here!
Y’all can have it! 
olhausen
Member
It depends on the sun angle I hear. ?
I think the concern should be less about the pac jet and more about the nao showing no signs of life on the ens. If we start pushing that back we start losing spring it should be pretty stubborn once it gets going
rburrel2
Member
This is a stretch to say the least, but there's a Loyd Christmas level chance that northern stream s/w could drop down and bowling ball over us like March 1, 2009. The GFS has way less west coast ridging and a weaker s/w at hr 240 compared to the euro, but still tries to cut it off over us at hr 276.
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Ima need you to update your location sir before people start thinking it's cold in apex
olhausen
Member
Parking lot at work is a sheet of ice.
rburrel2
Member
The Upstate is going to finish the month with 10-12 inches of liquid and BN temps... and nobody will even sniff a stray sleet pellet.
rburrel2
Member
There is potential to squeeze a winter storm in around January 30th though. I won't give up hope on that just yet. Would nice if at least a few ensemble members started showing something though.
That set up screams Northeast & maybe the Mid Atlantic all over it. It’s a brief window but it’s there.
Nice pick up burrel. We have it move the way it's been going (ala past 7 days) or it moves east. Note the west ridge placement
I think right now, VA and north is looking real good for that time frame, but I absolutely think western and central NC, SC upstate, and even Northeast GA have a chance. There is a really strong CAD signal at this lead time and with the energy shown flying around, it definitely bears watching.
Hopefully we can get some runs rolling in that timeframe this weekend.