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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

It really is mornings like these that keep the dry wall repair companies in business. Wintry precip into Mobile/Pensacola with a heavy rain shower streaming through the Carolina’s

Yeah, nice mid 30s rain shower on the way in to work this morning. Artic plunge just took a hard stop right at the Carolinas, said nah this is far enough, lol. At least I continually learn what looks are NOT good for the Carolinas.
 
Yeah, nice mid 30s rain shower on the way in to work this morning. Artic plunge just took a hard stop right at the Carolinas, said nah this is far enough, lol. At least I continually learn what looks are NOT good for the Carolinas.
We usually need a (strong) CAD. Yeah, a miller A system can work but that's tricky (winners and lots of losers). And, we're not even getting those with sufficient cold east of the mountains. The classic CAD setups have disappeared these past few years. With the forecast to go back into a la nina next winter, I feel like a Panthers fan looking at winning prospects for the upcoming few years.
 
Looks like the long-term ensembles still agree to an above average - seasonal temperature outlook for the majority of us through February 01.
 
Some of yall let climo whip your tail year after year and it leads to bitter posting and bitter casting. Do something about it instead of bitching.

We are doing something about it...we are bitter posting and bitter casting. We are hoping the snow gods get tired of our bitching and moaning and give us a foot. It's been 20 years of this and so far it's not working.
 
If we should only use the CFS for pattern recognition, it doesn't look good for the next month:

Week two:
View attachment 142632


Week three:
View attachment 142633

Week four:
View attachment 142634

I guess you could say week four has a "more" el nino look to it, but at this point we're now getting into the later part of February. Another point is the CFS is not a great model so maybe this wont verify.
Given that the same model just had -1000 for a 30 day average I think we can safely feel ok
 
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