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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

ILMRoss said:
gfs was a continuation of very positive trends we've seen today.

basically an 8 yard run down the middle on first down

tbh should this late phase scenario be borne out though it definitely favors i95 east
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Yea I was afraid of losing to the mountains again…. Hell it’s gonna Jump Charlotte Metro and Hit 95-Beach this time would be funny tbh


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Just be aware, we are in the midst of the “pulling the trough over the North Atlantic westward” phase of modeling which always follows the “models are too fast pushing the NA trough out” phase. This phase will continue until day 4 when it will go into the “trough over the North Atlantic trends just east just enough to shaft NC” phase.

You have been warned….
 
EastmanGAWX said:
I reside in the area that you referenced as being the "sixth" region. In fact, my location is sixty miles SE of Macon and I can assure you that even this far South isn't devoid of winter weather events. During the last decade, we had four separate occasions that met the criteria of being some type of winter storm. While I absolutely do not expect to see snow/sleet/freezing rain every single winter, it is absolutely not correct to assert that anyone south of the cities you listed under number six to see wintry precipitation during any cold weather month. The old rule used to be that any time there was snow breaking out between the I-10 and I-20 corrider in Louisiana, that the chances of it making it to the Southern half of Georgia were extermely high in terms of plausibility. However, that is no longer accurate and I think that anyone south of Atlanta in Georgia and the lower half of South Carolina (excluding those that got crushed in January 2018) has a right to complain about how things have turned out lately way more than most. If one wants to truly draw a line in Georgia in which your chances of seeing some type of frozen precipiation dramatically drop, it would be a SW to NE line from slightly below Albany to Tifton to Baxley and upwards to Statesboro. Anything on the other half of that line most definitely has a chance at seeing at least something measurable each winter.
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While you are certainly correct, it does snow in that area. I didn't say it never snows there, just stated it misses more often than not even in great winters and one shouldn't expect snow every year. Based on your response you agree with that and have your expectations in check. That line between at least seeing snow fall every year and going years at a time without any definitely sets up somewhere near that I20 corridor.

Hell we should probably quit expecting it every year up here too. Since 2012 we've been blanked twice and we're already in danger of making it 3.
 
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Stevo24 said:
I’m confused. What about that run was big and worthy of get your popcorn ready?
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The 18z GFS has nothing of interest for us. The eastern parts of both Carolinas may get something if this run is right, but upstate SC is left out.
 
This one's on life support for most of the upstate...at least northwest. Need some serious changes over the next 24hrs!
 
JHS said:
The end of the 18z GFS is going to be a lot warmer too it looks like.
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The hockey stick pattern can’t crash and burn!?
 
  • Haha
Reactions: SD
CaryWx said:
11-16th? Last three days? Somebody can't count
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See post above. Models always rush pattern changes. It will take longer to get into a “colder” pattern.
 

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ATLwxfan said:
Don’t love the idea of lala land op runs either buoying hopes or crushing dreams. Really should focus on ensembles for that range. Not that they’re spectacular but they’re not furnace.


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Yep…ensembles aren’t as warm

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rburrel2 said:
18z Euro was stronger with the southern low, precip field further north at hr90. These globals are going to start jackpotting the SW mountains/foothills soon I think. 18z GFS had a little spot of snow there.

The thing is if that band makes it up there, it could pivot in the same spot for 12-18 hours and drop 2-3 inches of liquid. The upside potential while very unlikely is through the roof there.

Also worth noting the highest GEFS snow mean for anybody is that area of the southern mountains around Brevard
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Those white squirrels in Brevard must be excited! Time to engage camo mode!
 
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