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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

SD said:
I think its more continue the main Feb thread for overall discussion but give people the ability to discuss their own local needs/wants/desires without that ruffling feathers. Didn't you get mad about @Tarheel1 snow pics?
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That's way different. He's in Iowa. No one here cares about what it's doing in Iowa
 
Carolina Crusher said:
That's way different. He's in Iowa. No one here cares about what it's doing in Iowa
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I'd summize someone in Macon GA doesn't care what's going on here either. See what I'm getting at? It's not a long term thing but if it gets active and/or marginal I really think it's going to get ugly between subregions
 
Carolina Crusher said:
That's way different. He's in Iowa. No one here cares about what it's doing in Iowa
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Let’s just say Carolina Crusher 10,000 more times and maybe it will happen again! Especially if you rub LickWx magic lamp real hard
 
This are my regions, ignoring state lines and going in order from the best climo to the worst.
1 obviously the mountains and TN
2 north foothills to the western triad
3 east Triad thru RDU up to SE Virginia.
4 85 corridor from Salisbury down to GSP
5 anywhere west, AL, MS, LA
6 Atlanta, Augusta, Columbia, Fayetteville. The most painful region because you're close enough to always have hope but it rarely works out. And anywhere south of there shouldn't expect winter weather anyway
 
SD said:
I'd summize someone in Macon GA doesn't care what's going on here either. See what I'm getting at? It's not a long term thing but if it gets active and/or marginal I really think it's going to get ugly between subregions
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Nah, it'll be fine. Way different when the forum is supposed to be for the south and you have one guy posting from Iowa.
 
Avalanche said:
I agree but some might say we need to pay attention to what’s going on upstream to get an accurate depiction of what might happen down here.
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Exactly! The last good storm y’all got in 22 or whenever, came through me first⛄️
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Not being rude but their won't be much to read for your area. Maybe Mitch West can keep you entertained. Snow sucks will keep you grounded in reality. There will definitely be a couple weenies in the upstate that will go down with the ship and not give up until April but reality is the upstate is a whole different climo than the Midlands so that doesn't do you much good. Wish I had better news for you
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I meant SC/NC to not include states 1000 miles away
 
I reside in the area that you referenced as being the "sixth" region. In fact, my location is sixty miles SE of Macon and I can assure you that even this far South isn't devoid of winter weather events. During the last decade, we had four separate occasions that met the criteria of being some type of winter storm. While I absolutely do not expect to see snow/sleet/freezing rain every single winter, it is absolutely not correct to assert that anyone south of the cities you listed under number six to see wintry precipitation during any cold weather month. The old rule used to be that any time there was snow breaking out between the I-10 and I-20 corrider in Louisiana, that the chances of it making it to the Southern half of Georgia were extermely high in terms of plausibility. However, that is no longer accurate and I think that anyone south of Atlanta in Georgia and the lower half of South Carolina (excluding those that got crushed in January 2018) has a right to complain about how things have turned out lately way more than most. If one wants to truly draw a line in Georgia in which your chances of seeing some type of frozen precipiation dramatically drop, it would be a SW to NE line from slightly below Albany to Tifton to Baxley and upwards to Statesboro. Anything on the other half of that line most definitely has a chance at seeing at least something measurable each winter.
 
SD said:
What happens if we rebrand and start going after other regions?
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Well, I would just stay in the south region. Just different to me to have the site focused on the south and one person posting from somewhere that it snows a lot more on here posting pics and feels like he is trolling and rubbing it in.
 
Carolina Crusher said:
Nah, it'll be fine. Way different when the forum is supposed to be for the south and you have one guy posting from Iowa.
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Brick why can’t you handle seeing other people get snow? What kind of grown man gets jealous and cries when he sees some man in Iowa getting snow? Your 59 years old , grow up, you can’t keep crying
 
EastmanGAWX said:
I reside in the area that you referenced as being the "sixth" region. In fact, my location is sixty miles SE of Macon and I can assure you that even this far South isn't devoid of winter weather events. During the last decade, we had four separate occasions that met the criteria of being some type of winter storm. While I absolutely do not expect to see snow/sleet/freezing rain every single winter, it is absolutely not correct to assert that anyone south of the cities you listed under number six to see wintry precipitation during any cold weather month. The old rule used to be that any time there was snow breaking out between the I-10 and I-20 corrider in Louisiana, that the chances of it making it to the Southern half of Georgia were extermely high in terms of plausibility. However, that is no longer accurate and I think that anyone south of Atlanta in Georgia and the lower half of South Carolina (excluding those that got crushed in January 2018) has a right to complain about how things have turned out lately way more than most. If one wants to truly draw a line in Georgia in which your chances of seeing some type of frozen precipiation dramatically drop, it would be a SW to NE line from slightly below Albany to Tifton to Baxley and upwards to Statesboro. Anything on the other half of that line most definitely has a chance at seeing at least something measurable each winter.
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There's a hint of truth and/or logic with a few folks, but those same people tend to extremely exaggerate.
 
So random question…. When daily is new data ingested by the models….. I’ve noticed for years 12Z Runs always suck well 90% of the time, and 0Z is different sometime by a lot. Is it the 0Z that gets new data?


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WolfpackHomer91 said:
So random question…. When daily is new data ingested by the models….. I’ve noticed for years 12Z Runs always suck well 90% of the time, and 0Z is different sometime by a lot. Is it the 0Z that gets new data?


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Both the 12z and 0z get new data ingested.
 
If we can’t score in Feb 2015 then what makes people so sure we’ll score this Feb ? Is the upcoming pattern better than Feb 2015 ?
 
Snowlover87 said:
If we can’t score in Feb 2015 then what makes people so sure we’ll score this Feb ? Is the upcoming pattern better than Feb 2015 ?
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2015 lost its -nao and was mainly pac driven the hope is we can get pac ridge and nao this time which would force a 2015 like outcome south
 
Someone explain why the GFS was good it looks like ass unless you live in Wilmington? Or is it just the trend west we’re applauding ? Seriously asking not being dumb


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WolfpackHomer91 said:
Someone explain why the GFS was good it looks like ass unless you live in Wilmington? Or is it just the trend west we’re applauding ? Seriously asking not being dumb


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The trend. The SE Canada low is shifting west, and if it continues to shift, and if we assume that precip will be more expansive to the NW, then we can score. Just simply the verification that the setup is not dead is all I need.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Someone explain why the GFS was good it looks like ass unless you live in Wilmington? Or is it just the trend west we’re applauding ? Seriously asking not being dumb


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gfs was a continuation of very positive trends we've seen today.

basically an 8 yard run down the middle on first down

tbh should this late phase scenario be borne out though it definitely favors i95 east
 
It's lining up at least on the gfs right like it could blow up inside the 72hr modeling window. Who knows what the precip. field would be right now
 
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