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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

weatherfide said:
The front on the 10th/11th looks drier and drier, too.
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Our local NOAA is embarrassing. They should be well knowledgeable to take the output of the models and look at reality to make a more educated forecast, but they can't do it. Its the same reason why there is such garbage data recording across the state.
 
J.C. said:
Our local NOAA is embarrassing. They should be well knowledgeable to take the output of the models and look at reality to make a more educated forecast, but they can't do it. Its the same reason why there is such garbage data recording across the state.
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I blame DEI and the influx of Gen Z in to the work place.
 
I thought end of December into January was looking $$$. We punting already?
 
Snowlover87 said:
I hope we don't waste the whole month of December like it seems we usually do.
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Outside of the mountains I don't recall too many times we've gotten snow in Dec. Winter wx chances are generally best late Jan into Feb so I'm not sure where all of pessimism is with no wintry precip in Dec comes from.
 
jeremyt said:
Outside of the mountains I don't recall too many times we've gotten snow in Dec. Winter wx chances are generally best late Jan into Feb so I'm not sure where all of pessimism is with no wintry precip in Dec comes from.
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the funny thing is the 2 biggest snows I've seen were in December (2017) and March (1993).
 
Stevo24 said:
I thought end of December into January was looking $$$. We punting already?
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All we can see is maybe 10-14 days out with any reliability. And it looks mild. Not what you'd call hot for this time of year but not cold either. End of December is just speculation at this point. If I was a betting man I'd go warm. Not because I know for certain but I'm just betting the odds. It wants to be mild in the SE in winter anymore regardless of what the signs point to. It's always a fly in the ointment that ruins it.
 
J.C. said:
So at this point for December we are thinking +4 to 6F above average and -2.5" precipitation?
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Yep. Hard to imagine a way this month was going to be BN or even close to normal unless we had a lingering stubborn block the first half or potentially if the last 10 days go gangbusters.

@griteater thoughts from yesterday are hard to argue with for how the month evolves.

Pretty sure that most wouldn't care if we are +5-10 on 12/20 if 12/25-31 look good.
 
12 GFS at ~ day 10. Normally you could get excited about this setup (maybe have the mid-west low a little more south). Nice strong high to the north setting up a CAD. But, the air to the north is just not cold enough. You can't have dew points in the 20s in NY State.

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MB22 said:
It's too warm.
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So El Nino's are now dry and warm in the SE? It's 71 degrees at my house. Saving money on propane is not a bad thing, though. Edit: Most Tempest stations are at 65 in my area so my old Accu-rite station is faulty it appears. I think Santa is bringing a replacement later this month, though.
 
weatherfide said:
So El Nino's are now dry and warm in the SE? It's 71 degrees at my house. Saving money on propane is not a bad thing, though. Edit: Most Tempest stations are at 65 in my area so my old Accu-rite station is faulty it appears. I think Santa is bringing a replacement later this month, though.
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LOL i can't wait to live somewhere where i can actually use one again.
 
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