Basically no snow outside of Wilkesboro NC! Maybe a little more precip? But warmer
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Psalm 148:8
Member
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2016
- Messages
- 244
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- 429
Ok... so I’ve been in the snow jackpot bullseye every model and run since yesterday... yet FFC and BMX continue to basically dismiss this event... with BMX going 1/2 inch accumulation. Good thing I’m not a forecaster... this is apparently an extremely difficult forecast...probably the 1/2 a degree makes all the difference forecast.
South AL Wx
Member
An important reminder from NWS BMX's discussion this morning:
"Have seen plenty of model snow accumulation maps floating around on
social media and elsewhere, but you can throw those algorithms and
10 to 1 ratios out the window in this situation given the warm
temperatures near the surface."
That said, they have added a low confidence for light accumulating snowfall in their HWO.
"Have seen plenty of model snow accumulation maps floating around on
social media and elsewhere, but you can throw those algorithms and
10 to 1 ratios out the window in this situation given the warm
temperatures near the surface."
That said, they have added a low confidence for light accumulating snowfall in their HWO.
Yellow Snow
Member
Latest 10% probability map from FFC, valid through 7:00am Saturday morning (remember that this is still an experimental product):
packfan98
Moderator
6z GEFS is by far the best run. Looks like more of a consensus with the best axis from about Burlington to Mebane and NE from there. Seems to match up with some of the other models.
packfan98
Moderator
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
FFC forecast has trended away from model consensus. In fact, they've taken snow out of the grids for Atlanta completely. Giving a 20% chance of light rain
packfan98
Moderator
Here's Matthew East's morning video. It's a great way to start your mornings and get caught up on the overnight model runs.
Smart move on their part. This is a rough period right here.
They must have seen the 6z GFS? Not a good run for ATL
The GFS runs have all been not good for ATL but last one was improved
Someone had said the GDPS has a 6z and 18z run as well. Here is the 6Z precip maps, the off hour runs only to 84 hours.
This is a tough one. As they all are in the SE. Honestly think NAM is out of touch, CMC likely too strong, GFS may come around? Euro more likely solution. Today's runs will be interesting.
6z GFS clearly made a move towards the other global models.
Showmeyourtds
Member
Agree here. FFC is rejecting NAM for now in their updated discussion. Can’t say I blame them. They do still mention a chance for mixed precip in my grid for Friday Night, but only at 20%
That's not a bad mean at all, only problem for me personally is I think I'm losing this one to the NW trend. I've been in and around the jackpot since it started showing up on the models and the Euro currently still has me there but I guarantee you when it's all said and done this is an I-85 special6z GEFS is by far the best run. Looks like more of a consensus with the best axis from about Burlington to Mebane and NE from there. Seems to match up with some of the other models.
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I'm having a hard time getting way into the nw trend idea. I think there will be an larger NW edge to the precip shield but unless this goes full cmc I can't see a huge NW jump in the rn sn line
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bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Models all underpredicted moisture for this morning significantly. Compare radar to model precip and reflectivity.
Yeah I mean we always seem some leaking toward the NW but I can't find a big catalyst to drive it way north at the last second like the January failure. Maybe I'm wishcasting
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