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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10



I guess they are waiting to see how this does over Mississippi and SW Bama, but after all the model runs I don’t see how you don’t upgrade portions to a winter storm warning for 2+. They are the professionals, not me, but I see that happening sooner or later.
 
Nearly every map i have seen shows more than 1" in Central AL yet the NWS says an inch or less. Whats the point in looking at all these models if they are all wrong ?
 
If this is going to be like 2014, one thing that happened was the precip was way underestimated by the models on the northern end. Maybe that's happening again.
 
Parker said:
6 inches at college station at Texas A&M!!
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And talk about an over performing catching NWS off guard system... winter weather advisories there were not issued until around 7:30 pm local time, after snow had started accumulating
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Nearly every map i have seen shows more than 1" in Central AL yet the NWS says an inch or less. Whats the point in looking at all these models if they are all wrong ?
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Since it isn't coming in with established cold, forecasters are thinking that most of it is going to melt.
 
BillT said:
radar is starting to light up further north in mississippi and west of there into arkansas the real world to me is OVER doing the modeled storm
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There's no truth like ground truth. And really - boom or bust, I'd argue that having a winter storm system to even discuss at this time of year is a win for all of us here.
 
deltadog03 said:
I am happy for yall who may get snow. Models are looking better...in fact, I am seeing more sub 0c pockets develop on the HRRR and especially the nam and 3km nam as well even near here...I don't expect anything but a cold rain here, and maybe some flakes....but interesting...
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Several models have shown pockets of colder 850mb temperatures further south in pockets and lines of heavier precip. A lot of bright banding has shown up here now and temperatures are responding downward locally. I wouldn't rule out bullseye surprises (no accum) in further south regions
 
I wish i had confidence in this event but the fact all the news channels are saying an inch or less and we are only under a WWA makes me very pessimistic. Temps are in the 40s and dp's are above freezing. We have a lot of work to do.
 
Stormsfury said:
Several models have shown pockets of colder 850mb temperatures further south in pockets and lines of heavier precip. A lot of bright banding has shown up here now and temperatures are responding downward locally. I wouldn't rule out bullseye surprises (no accum) in further south regions
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I agree Mike there is showing a lot of bright banding on forecast models. Wouldn't surprise me at all
 
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