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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

UK Met.
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Guys. Look at your BL temps & 850. There are signs that things might not be so great, regardless of these "snow maps". Here is the WPC talk:

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 AM EST THU DEC 7 2017

VALID 12Z THU DEC 7 2017 - 12Z SUN DEC 10 2017

***SOUTHEAST U.S. TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION***

WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING AND RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INLAND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BEING THE
COMPLICATING FACTOR IN THE SNOWFALL FORECAST. MOST MODELS ARE
INDICATING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IF SNOWFALL RATES
ARE HIGH ENOUGH, THEY COULD BRIEFLY OVERCOME THE WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND RESULT IN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AND
FORESTED SURFACES. AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION RATES REMAIN CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST, AND
THUS LIMITING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW.
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Shawn said:
Guys. Look at your BL temps & 850. There are signs that things might not be so great, regardless of these "snow maps". Here is the WPC talk:
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BL several degrees below freezing throughout the system here. Right now, there is a ton of dry air aloft in the boundary layer, and there is a warm nose. That is expected to be flipped when the system comes in. I expect virga when it rolls in early tomorrow, then it to fall more when the humidity rises.
 
People in Georgia, SC, Charlotte and eastward in NC (including the triangle) should not expect much if any accumulating snow, and even the Triad will have mixing problems IMO. Exceptions would be the mountains in Ga and NC which may stay all snow. Precip totals may indeed be higher in some localized spots but it will not necessarily be snow. Very likely any snow will appear on the grassy areas, decks etc but little to none on the roads
 
I'll take anything frozen.. that gives us something to do Brining, salting maybe even a little pushing...
 


Fox with there new map. They are the first ones to up any totals. Still think it may be a little further north, but at least they are doing better than the whole up to 1/4 inch map that Spann has out. I would expect him to follow suit on his afternoon discussion.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
That would be a 180 degree turn from their morning thoughts. Their morning disco didn't sound encouraging for any advisories or warnings, but again that was this morning, quite a bit has changed since then.
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A Winter Storm Warning seems like a little bit of stretch here considering almost everyone won't see anything over 1-2"
 
Not going to hurt everyone's eyes with a ms paint call map.
But for my neck of the woods, Burlington down to Sler City back toward Boone. 1 to 3 inches is a safe call. The qpf is definitely there for twice that much, but you have to factor in all the negatives and this is a highly likely outcome as this point. Biggest concern is eastern areas fighting off BL issues like Siler City and never seeing any accums verse western areas like Boone no BL concerns,only qpf. I'd be very nervous once you get to or east of alamance,Chatham county and even a good portion of Randolph County.
Enjoy whatever you see folks, more to come and I'm locking my fore cast in. See how it pans out for this region once we are all done shoveling our driveways lol.
 
Webberweather53 said:
A Winter Storm Warning seems like a little bit of stretch here considering almost everyone won't see anything over 1-2"
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Not to mention they will get mauled by the public/media if they throw out a warning and get no impacts. Once again, I do not envy the mets that actually have to come up with these warnings and such
 
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Looks like evidence of a warm nose coming up the Savannah River on the GEFS, judging from the maps
 
No friend of mine watching the warm nose that wont budge...lol
It is a good tool unfortunately ive used the last couple years looking at a warm pocket at 925mb stuck in the upstate of SC
 
Parker said:


Fox with there new map. They are the first ones to up any totals. Still think it may be a little further north, but at least they are doing better than the whole up to 1/4 inch map that Spann has out. I would expect him to follow suit on his afternoon discussion.
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That map looks good to me right now.
 
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