Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

[MotoWeatherman]

It's was the 18z runs that Sunday where the NW trend became obvious. In this instance the NAM led the way with that. I still remember the morning of that Tuesday that Kirk mellish still blew it.

This was issued a day and a half before snow pocolypse crippled Atlanta. #NeverForget #FearTheNWTrend

 

[WeatherWatch]

Can’t view that image. Might just be me though

You should be able to view it now.

 

[bouncycorn]

It's was the 18z runs that Sunday where the NW trend became obvious. In this instance the NAM led the way with that. I still remember the morning of that Tuesday that Kirk mellish still blew it.

What did Mellish say that morning?

I remember Joanne Feldman nailed it that morning. I remember she said "Schools that decided to be in session today are going to regret it" that morning.

 

[SD]

Have to like how the euro is setting up this inland maxima of precip across NC. This band might be the catalyst for accumulating snow and flipping rain to snow as the boundary layer warmth is overcome. Have to love these razor thin events like this.

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[Metwannabe]

Shawn provided a reminder of the banter thread, I just deleted a large number of post, nothing personal, but please keep general conversation type of post in banter. Especially as it relates to local mets... thanks!

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[Shawn]

For my (central) Midlands of SC friends. The chances for a significant Winter event aren't very good. It looks like the cold air will likely be a "close but no cigar" situation. We will have good moisture, but with the GEFS and EPS not showing any bigger events outside some rain & snow mix around these parts, I officially toss in the towel.

 

[RollTide18]

For my Midlands of SC friends. The chances for a significant Winter event aren't very good. It looks like the cold air will likely be a "close but no cigar" situation. We will have good moisture, but with the GEFS and EPS not showing any bigger events outside some rain & snow mix around these parts, I officially toss in the towel.

Kind of unusual that there could *possibly* be snow in Montgomery and yet no snow in Columbia/Lexington, usually when MGM gets snow, CAE does too.

 

[Metwannabe]

Have to like how the euro is setting up this inland maxima of precip across NC. This band might be the catalyst for accumulating snow and flipping rain to snow as the boundary layer warmth is overcome. Have to love these razor thin events like this.

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I can't see the image but would we really have it any other way other than razor thin?

 

[Tarheel1]

Kind of unusual that there could *possibly* be snow in Montgomery and yet no snow in Columbia/Lexington, usually when MGM gets snow, CAE does too.

It's a different angle than normal. One model run today showed snow in Pensacola and rain in CAE

 

[whatalife]

For my (central) Midlands of SC friends. The chances for a significant Winter event aren't very good. It looks like the cold air will likely be a "close but no cigar" situation. We will have good moisture, but with the GEFS and EPS not showing any bigger events outside some rain & snow mix around these parts, I officially toss in the towel.

Yep...we will be on the outside looking in. Very frustrating to say the least.


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[SD]

I can't see the image but would we really have it any other way other than razor thin?

Weird they it doesn't show. Basically it's blob of heavy rates up 95 toward us1

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[Brick Tamland]

Have to like how the euro is setting up this inland maxima of precip across NC. This band might be the catalyst for accumulating snow and flipping rain to snow as the boundary layer warmth is overcome. Have to love these razor thin events like this.

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That's how we can end up with a pretty decent event, too. As long as you're on the right side of that thin line.

 

[WeatherLC]

Seems to me the models have shown a really sharp cut off line from nw to se. Could issues of convective feedback have anything to do with that? I know that was a problem in February of 2014.

 

[Alex]

In response to your posts Webber it seems as if RAH is hedging their bets. Would love to see Wake and Chatham (I'm in Pittsboro) get more than just a dusting, it's been a couple of years for me!

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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[SD]

That's how we can end up with a pretty decent event, too. As long as you're on the right side of that thin line.

Should be an interesting 3 days. We aren't really fighting a NW inching 850 line instead we are hoping to cool the BL. Something makes me think this could trend more wintry but that's 100% off the cuff and not scientific

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[SD]

Seems to me the models have shown a really sharp cut off line from nw to se. Could issues of convective feedback have anything to do with that? I know that was a problem in February of 2014.

Jet dynamics and moisture transport argue for a sharp NW edge of precip.

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[Webberweather53]

Really looks like those classic RDU jackpots you mentioned earlier.

There are several other classic cold neutral ENSO/NINA RDU, US HWY 64, or US 1 jackpots I failed to mention that i just now realized in passing... Again this doesnt guarantee we take the brunt of this storm but it gives us just a little bit of hope...

February 1-2 1921


March 8-10 1932


December 1-3 1937



December 15-17 1942



January 16-18 1946



December 26-28 1980


January 30-31 1981

 

[deltadog03]

Working on a map. No amounts or anything yet.

 

[RollTide18]

Well during this lull, guess I'll post BMX's AFD

Thursday/Thursday night:

Southwest flow aloft continues during this period as a trough
axis sharpens over the Southern Plains and Desert Southwest.
Over-running light rain will continue for areas mainly along/south
of I-85 in the axis of mid-level moisture during this period.
Cloudcover and precipitation will keep temperatures in the 40s
for most areas, with highs around 50 possible in West Alabama.
Models are trending a bit further southeast with the northwestern
edge of precipitation, which may stay ahead of the cooler air and
associated wintry precipitation potential through 12z Friday
morning. But for now will keep the slight chance of a rain/snow
mix in after midnight Thursday night from Selma/Montgomery
northeastward to Randolph/Chambers counties for continuity and due
to spread in the ensembles. Temperatures should remain above
freezing in these areas Thursday night, however.

Friday/Friday night:

Models diverge during this period. The GFS is more progressive
with the shortwave, keeping the precipitation south/east of the
forecast area during this period. Meanwhile the ECMWF/Canadian are
slower, keeping the moist southwesterly flow in place longer along
with associated precipitation for areas along and south of I-85.
This is problematic as continued low-level cold air advection
causes 850 and 925 mb temperatures to fall below freezing and
1000-850 mb thicknesses to fall below critical values. Raw output
from these models keeps temperatures in the mid 30s. Therefore,
introduced a rain/snow mix across the southeast counties (mainly
along/south of I-85) for Friday. Temperatures above freezing and
warm ground temperatures would likely greatly inhibit any
accumulation potential, as well as a potential for a warm nose due
to southwest flow aloft. Therefore, confidence in any
accumulation is too low to include in the HWO at this time, also
taking into account climatological unfavorability in these areas
and model disagreement. Dry conditions are expected Friday night
with temperatures falling below freezing across the entire area.

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Wxsouth has a good writeup and said someone is going to get a suprise out of all this. Said he’s relying on the nam bc gfs and euro struggle with patterns like this