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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

From upstream observations is everything going according to what has been modeled? Is there an over performance of the cold air or not?

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Arcc said:
He is also a overly bullish snow forecasting weenie, i.e. "The Southern JB".Take all his winter forecasts with a mountain of salt if you want to live.
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ARCC, what are your thoughts on this system for us alabama folks? I’ve always respected your opinion and you usually speak facts and don’t go into weenie mode, like I do and many others.
 
I understand you guys don't put much stock in the nam this far out, but living in the deep Deep South, I'm gonna hug it till I squeeze every last drop/flake out of it lol. Hope it shows snow for everybody who wants it. I would be more than happy with flurries living here along the gulf coast.
 
The 00z NAM looks like the secondary s/w over Utah is more amped with the overall stream being held back a little slower/west.
 
Parker said:
ARCC, what are your thoughts on this system for us alabama folks? I’ve always respected your opinion and you usually speak facts and don’t go into weenie mode, like I do and many others.
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I think the odds of seeing snow from BHM to Montgomery are pretty decent. I don't expect much accumulation but it will be nice to see it fall. I would like to see the s/w dig more and give us more of the southwest flow aloft. That all said it wouldn't surprise me should this area get nothing but rain.

To sum it up, maybe we see flakes fly, but enjoy what you get for what it is. It's rare to even get that this early.
 
Arcc said:
He is also a overly bullish snow forecasting weenie, i.e. "The Southern JB".Take all his winter forecasts with a mountain of salt if you want to live.
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I honestly don't understand the rationale behind taking the NAM over the euro esp beyond 48 hours. I know why he's doing it (WAA and the warm nose in the past few winter storms in the Carolinas) but this setup is different than either of those however. The NAM has been way too fast with this storm thus far as subsequent runs are pushing it towards a slower, more realistic reality... Sure I can kind of buy the axis of snow it printed out on the 18z run from NC and points northward as that's in alignment with climatology and the history of Miller As and the northwestward expansion of the precipitation shield is realistic it's likely getting to that solution for the wrong reasons and I would certainly give the Euro and especially the EPS plus a dynamical adjustment for NWP tendencies this far out over the NAM esp outside of 36-48 hrs
 
Webberweather53 said:
I honestly don't understand the rationale behind taking the NAM over the euro esp beyond 48 hours. I know why he's doing it (WAA and the warm nose in the past few winter storms in the Carolinas) but this setup is different than either of those however. The NAM has been way too fast with this storm thus far as subsequent runs are pushing it towards a slower, more realistic reality... Sure I can kind of buy the axis of snow it printed out on the 18z run from NC and points northward as that's in alignment with climatology and the history of Miller As and the northwestward expansion of the precipitation shield is realistic it's likely getting to that solution for the wrong reasons and I would certainly give the Euro and especially the EPS plus a dynamical adjustment for NWP tendencies this far out over the NAM esp outside of 36-48 hrs
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Personally I only trust the NAM when it shows what I don't want and it's the only one that shows that solution. The stupid thing loves to crush dreams.
 
Look at the SLP pressure lines in the gulf. They're further north on this run. Likely indicating low will initiate further north on this run.
 
Arcc said:
Personally I only trust the NAM when it shows what I don't want and it's the only one that shows that solution. The stupid thing loves to crush dreams.
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I only trust the NAM inside 36-48 hours otherwise meh, but it's fun to watch it's solutions continuously trend towards more reasonable NWP like the Euro
 
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