bouncycorn
Meteorologist
The nam struggles with anything beyond 60 hoursWxsouth has a good writeup and said someone is going to get a suprise out of all this. Said he’s relying on the nam bc gfs and euro struggle with patterns like this
The nam struggles with anything beyond 60 hoursWxsouth has a good writeup and said someone is going to get a suprise out of all this. Said he’s relying on the nam bc gfs and euro struggle with patterns like this
I know but Robert is a well respected met. Just going off what he saidThe nam struggles with anything beyond 60 hours
Wxsouth has a good writeup and said someone is going to get a suprise out of all this. Said he’s relying on the nam bc gfs and euro struggle with patterns like this
I know but Robert is a well respected met. Just going off what he said
edit: nam is running
He is also a overly bullish snow forecasting weenie, i.e. "The Southern JB".Take all his winter forecasts with a mountain of salt if you want to live.
He may be a little over zealous at times, but he is well respected around these parts.He is also a overly bullish snow forecasting weenie, i.e. "The Southern JB".Take all his winter forecasts with a mountain of salt if you want to live.
Lol beat me to it a bit, but it is also a bit colder.The 00z NAM looks like the secondary s/w over Utah is more amped with the overall stream being held back a little slower/west.
ARCC, what are your thoughts on this system for us alabama folks? I’ve always respected your opinion and you usually speak facts and don’t go into weenie mode, like I do and many others.
I honestly don't understand the rationale behind taking the NAM over the euro esp beyond 48 hours. I know why he's doing it (WAA and the warm nose in the past few winter storms in the Carolinas) but this setup is different than either of those however. The NAM has been way too fast with this storm thus far as subsequent runs are pushing it towards a slower, more realistic reality... Sure I can kind of buy the axis of snow it printed out on the 18z run from NC and points northward as that's in alignment with climatology and the history of Miller As and the northwestward expansion of the precipitation shield is realistic it's likely getting to that solution for the wrong reasons and I would certainly give the Euro and especially the EPS plus a dynamical adjustment for NWP tendencies this far out over the NAM esp outside of 36-48 hrsHe is also a overly bullish snow forecasting weenie, i.e. "The Southern JB".Take all his winter forecasts with a mountain of salt if you want to live.
He may be a little over zealous at times, but he is well respected around these parts.
I honestly don't understand the rationale behind taking the NAM over the euro esp beyond 48 hours. I know why he's doing it (WAA and the warm nose in the past few winter storms in the Carolinas) but this setup is different than either of those however. The NAM has been way too fast with this storm thus far as subsequent runs are pushing it towards a slower, more realistic reality... Sure I can kind of buy the axis of snow it printed out on the 18z run from NC and points northward as that's in alignment with climatology and the history of Miller As and the northwestward expansion of the precipitation shield is realistic it's likely getting to that solution for the wrong reasons and I would certainly give the Euro and especially the EPS plus a dynamical adjustment for NWP tendencies this far out over the NAM esp outside of 36-48 hrs
I only trust the NAM inside 36-48 hours otherwise meh, but it's fun to watch it's solutions continuously trend towards more reasonable NWP like the EuroPersonally I only trust the NAM when it shows what I don't want and it's the only one that shows that solution. The stupid thing loves to crush dreams.