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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

Anyone who has backyard plants they don't want to lose, may want to make sure they are protected. Snow or no snow, it will be very cold. I got lulled into a sense of complacency with the recent warm temps, but this system kinda woke me up. Anything like Garlic, onions etc that you want for spring, it would be best to mulch as soon as possible. If you have not done so already.
 
Looks like the best thing for folks in the Triangle is to be happy with seeing some snow fall, especially this early on in winter, and maybe be surprised if we get more to accumulate than the models show.
 
Storm5 said:
It's gonna be close. Still could use another 25 mile shift NW. Either way as claycochaser pointed out, even if we see a light accumulation it will more than likely melt off after the precip starts unless the cold push speeds up
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Storm how did you get the RGEM so early
 
So far nothing new on the facebook discussion. They are just talking about the forecast that they put together this morning before sunrise. I would expect the new graphics this afternoon to up totals a little imo.
 
Please ease up on the imby questions. Looking at the GFS, those totals are inflated due to marginal temps at varying levels (depending on one's location) plus the GFS should not be relied on at this time frame (if ever :))
 
NWS Jackson has slightly increased snow totals for portions of their CWA:

24774839_1571301729613367_446349725047720228_n.jpg
 
tarheels2 said:
What does that actually mean in layman’s terms and how does it affect this event?
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Since the Carolinas, VA, and portions of the mid Atlantic will be sitting in the right entrance region of this jet streak it means the ascent especially to the NW of this cyclone is going to be ridiculous vs what we normally see
 
More or less winter weather?
Webberweather53 said:
Since the Carolinas, VA, and portions of the mid Atlantic will be sitting in the right entrance region of this jet streak it means the ascent especially to the NW of this cyclone is going to be ridiculous vs what we normally see
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Second to last warning .We are turning off the guest view option for a couple of hours starting in 30 minutes . If your a guest take 30 seconds and sign up
 
Storm5 said:
Second to last warning .We are turning off the guest view option for a couple of hours starting in 30 minutes . If your a guest take 30 seconds and sign up
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And there's no risk! Signing up is easy. If you aren't happy with your experience, we'll give you double your money back!
 
I think the 12Z GFS is showing 6" of SN at Greensboro. Is this right and is that realistic? I know Packfan mentioned 1". Opinions?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Since the Carolinas, VA, and portions of the mid Atlantic will be sitting in the right entrance region of this jet streak it means the ascent especially to the NW of this cyclone is going to be ridiculous vs what we normally see
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Eric, are you saying that the models are under estimating this upcoming event of the NW sector of cyclone? I'm concerned about that powerful jet streak. I think this cyclone is going to "throw out some surprises."
 
WeatherWatch said:
Eric, are you saying that the models are under estimating this upcoming event of the NW sector of cyclone? I'm concerned about that powerful jet streak. I think this cyclone is going to "throw out some surprises."
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What kind of surprise are you talking about?
 
GaWx said:
I think the 12Z GFS is showing 6" of SN at Greensboro. Is this right and is that realistic? I know Packfan mentioned 1". Opinions?
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We've discussed time and time again that these numbers are unrealistic for several reasons, for one the ratios are going to be close to 6:1 so right off the bat even if everything that fell stuck to the ground, you'd lose 40% of the snow right there. Then the ground is pretty warm so to even accumulate it will have to fall pretty hard and even if it did there's going to be longwave radiation upward form the ground that still melts some of it and surface temps are slightly above freezing so whatever actually sticks to the ground will melt a little before more continues to come down. In general should cut those numbers down by 75% or so
 
Chattownsnow said:
So maybe something more like this... ;). :weenie:
nav_precip_mslp_east_6.png
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This is a very tricky setup for the southern mountains, the wind in the low-mid levels will be blowing perpendicular to the southern slopes and there will be additional help from orographic lifting, if any area was to overperform it would probably be there
 
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