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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

How you think we’re goinf to turn out ? I’m thinking a slushy half inch to an inch.

I'm thinking about the same as well as the best case scenario. The best thing about this event is the fact is it's starting overnight rather than during the day. I think this allows us the best chance to maximize our opportunity to accumulate snow. I know every year we have this debate about ground temps and whether it's too warm or not for snow to accumulate. The only problem is it's not so black and white to figure out. We've had cases where if the precip. rates were heavy enough it overcame a warm ground (ex: March 1, 2009) and we've had cases where even heavy precip couldn't overcome a warm ground (ex: March 2, 2010). It's a storm by storm case and I don't think we should blindly apply what happens in one storm from yesteryear to what's happening now until it happens. It's a complicated forecast all the way to gametime. I don't blame a lot of local mets/NWS offices not wanting to forecast amounts. They'll be damned if they do, damned if they don't either way.
 
Euro totals up.
ecmwf_snow_dep_se_42.png
 
Euro has been sticking to its guns, too. Looks like up to around 3 or 4 inches here that time.
It's a big Triad hit only problem I see is the jackpot has shifted Northwest, if you want accumulating snow we can't stand anymore NW shifts.

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I'm going to say the gray areas might see some flakes mixed in, the Blue Area may get a dusting on grassy surfaces and the purple jackpot Zone may get an inch.

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Much more realistic than taking the clown maps verbatim. There are going to be A LOT of people calling this a bust by the models because they don't see white on the ground.
 
I'm going to say the gray areas might see some flakes mixed in, the Blue Area may get a dusting on grassy surfaces and the purple jackpot Zone may get an inch.
01d134794366bc438547a7571c11135e.jpg


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Yeah, all the models can show is the possibility. Could end up like this, could end up less. The fun is in seeing if they end up being right. They are not perfect by any means.
 
I'm going to say the gray areas might see some flakes mixed in, the Blue Area may get a dusting on grassy surfaces and the purple jackpot Zone may get an inch.
01d134794366bc438547a7571c11135e.jpg


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I'm holding on for dear life. The euro was a little different for us. First time I've seen it start with a front end hit to rain

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I'm holding on for dear life. The euro was a little different for us. First time I've seen it start with a front end hit to rain

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I do think that of areas go to snow early tomorrow they might not go back to rain. Unless the nam is right with the mega torch

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I'm holding on for dear life. The euro was a little different for us. First time I've seen it start with a front end hit to rain

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I saw that, has at least a mix tomorrow afternoon then changing to rain.... that's gonna be painful to watch. I'm riding the Brick positivity train now I just want to see snow fall...
 
I do think that of areas go to snow early tomorrow they might not go back to rain. Unless the nam is right with the mega torch

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I am having a hard time dismissing the NAM's thermal profiles after the debacle this past January. It was less marginal than this situation is and looked a lot snowier, and the warm layer just killed us. Even less than 24 hours out, the globals and their ensembles were supportive of snow. It rained a lot!
 
Feeling like we have a consensus on the general area after seeing the runs today. No way we accumulate at the levels we see on the pure outputs, but some heavy rates can overcome the warmth and likely will in random scattered spots.

Now how much warm air works its way north ... going to be OBS to our west and looking at radar and temp time soon.

Be well all! Thanks for the info and perspective.

—30–


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Someday we will have a storm come through and give a measurable and substantial snow board wide. This is not that storm so keep your expectations in check. If you see flakes count it as a win, ground coating to 1-2"would be a home run. Also time to turn out attention away from the globals and watch the nowcast models like the Rap, HRRR and the SREF
 
I think we learned from last year along with the myriad of posts above that those numbers are enormously out of proportion to reality. Based on expected temps and the ever approaching warm nose, I just don’t see how ATL gets much more than a mix with no accumulation.


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I am having a hard time dismissing the NAM's thermal profiles after the debacle this past January. It was less marginal than this situation is and looked a lot snowier, and the warm layer just killed us. Even less than 24 hours out, the globals and their ensembles were supportive of snow. It rained a lot!
Hey the 3k nam brings some snow through Saturday afternoon. Give me a few hours of snow when I'm not at work it's a win. I just don't want to get blanked here, i worry this is it for us

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If any WWA is issued for the FFC CWA, we may find out as soon as 3pm today according to this update.
000
FXUS62 KFFC 071816
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
116 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for the 18Z Aviation Discussion.

In the near term, forecast is on track with the next wave of
moisture moving into the region later this afternoon/evening. We
are working now to fine-tune the wintry precipitation timing and
location. Expect the next update to come out between 3pm-4pm.


26

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...FC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
 
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