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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

malak05 said:
You believe the jet streak would open door to more convection and moisture from Gulf to northern portion
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You also don't see jet streaks like what the GFS is forecasting very often around here, anything above 90-100 knots is fantastic but 150-160+ is absolutely absurd except in cases where you have bombogenesis... I'm not saying that's going to happen or is really a legitimate or likely scenario, but if I didnt know better and had nothing else to look at, I would be giving it due consideration just based on that jet streak alone, it's insanely intense for our area of the world
 
I just don't see all that moisture being that suppressed as it is driven down and explodes in Gulf on GFS the CMC and NAM have similar tailing precip field but they lift inland
 
Was posted on the other board, GFS is the warmest of models right now on 2m temps​
 
malak05 said:
I just don't see all that moisture being that suppressed as it is driven down and explodes in Gulf on GFS the CMC and NAM have similar tailing precip field but they lift inland
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Even those models may not depict the full extent and intensity of the precipitation shield NW of the low. This situation has overperformance for the NW zones written all over it
 
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png
 
I'll add in to what Webber is talking about. With this setup, you have to use high res models. With a powerful jet streak, there is going to be strong amplification within the SW flow. The SW flow is going to be convective, and as Webber mentioned, the snow is going to be wet and heavy.
 
RollTide18 said:
Definitely gotta be careful with the models when it comes to the precip shield, as seen with Snowpocalypse 2014.
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Yeah and this case even more so, you rarely see jet entrance regions in NC that are much better than what the GFS is depicting w/ this storm. Even if there's absolutely no change in the intensity and placement of the low, the axis of precipitation could shift northwest for this very reason of the model not being able to resolve isentropic lift on the NW side of the low and the expansion of the precipitation shield with a huge jet streak over the mid Atlantic...
 
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