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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

metwannabe said:
There is hope but also no room for error lol
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Wow, look at that jackpot zone. Nice! There's never room for error when it comes to winter storms here. We usually ride the line between nothing and a decent event.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Wow, look at that jackpot zone. Nice! There's never room for error when it comes to winter storms here. We usually ride the line between nothing and a decent event.
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Well hell let's ride it like we stole it

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I think this will still come north/west another 50 miles or so, maybe more. It fits climo and always hard to argue against that, especially in December with marginal temps
 
Eh, I like that Euro run but it's latching on to the NAM's idea of mixing issues. I'm getting flashbacks to February 25, 2015, when the rain/snow line set up two miles to my north and I had a sloppy mess all day.

Also, FFC has put out its first special weather statement of the event...for brief sleet mixed with rain this afternoon.
 
SD said:
The euro loves trolling me

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Euro actually looking better than the last run and showing the classic RDU jackpot zone again. It's been pretty consistent with that.
 
Our high today was expected to be in the upper 40s. Currently 40 outside. Not sure we'll make it to the projected high.

NWS issues sleet statement for this afternoon in DeKalb County GA (just east of ATL)
For DeKalb, Georgia
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT UNTIL 4:15PM EST WED ...LIGHT SLEET WITH NO ACCUMULATION OCCURRING... THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR THAT HAS INFILTRATED THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT SLEET MIXING IN WITH LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. THIS HAS BEEN MAINLY AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG AND WHAT DOES OCCUR WILL CONTINUE TO MIXED WITH THE RAIN. AS SUCH, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SLEET AS TEMPERATURES AT GROUND LEVEL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
 
SD said:
The euro loves trolling me

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Most of that precipitation is a rain snow mix or even cold rain at times, just look at the max temps between 700 & 850 hPa in the height of the event... They go above freezing over Raleigh and this probably switches the precipitation over to rain/sleet/wet snow mix at best. You need to slash those totals printed out on the Euro by about 75% if you're along or south of the heaviest axis of snow on the 10:1 ratio map. NW of there it'll be closer to reality but still too high
 
Webberweather53 said:
Most of that precipitation is a rain snow mix or even cold rain at times, just look at the max temps between 700 & 850 hPa in the height of the event... They go above freezing over Raleigh and this probably switches the precipitation over to rain/sleet/wet snow mix at best. You need to slash those totals printed out on the Euro by about 75% if you're along or south of the heaviest axis of snow on the 10:1 ratio map. NW of there it'll be closer to reality but still too high
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Seeing some snow and maybe getting a couple of inches is more than enough to ask for this early in winter, though. Just glad to see the Euro staying the course.
 
Quick question: was the Euro all snow for Atlanta or rain to snow or a mix to snow?
 
I already can see at times coming up where locations that score heavy pockets of precip changeover while locations just miles away with lighter returns are receiving liquid precip. Even though there isn't a robust upper low like March 2014, thermal profiles would dictate wild swings and lots of back and forth precip types.
 
I am thrilled with the trends...but not so thrilled with the NW cutoff on the precip shield. Hoping if this does come to fruition that it pushes northwest another 50-75 miles(which honestly, normally it does). We shall see! I don't think any of us expected this so early in the month though lol.
 
MBell said:
I am thrilled with the trends...but not so thrilled with the NW cutoff on the precip shield. Hoping if this does come to fruition that it pushes northwest another 50-75 miles(which honestly, normally it does). We shall see! I don't think any of us expected this so early in the month though lol.
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I'd rather be where we are VS south or even in the bullseye right now. If the EPS is a little NW I think we are sitting good.
 
packfan98 said:
Allan Huffman's first guess. He knows the 2016 date is wrong.
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Seems reasonable, he has factored in lower ratios, makes sense, and the climo favored areas. I'd love to see it more SE but that would be wishcasting

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metwannabe said:
For us central NC folks, nail in the coffin I'm afraid



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Not necessarily. I live in central NC and my snow mean actually went up. The totals went up across the board but that's about it as far as comparing the track to the last run.
 
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