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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

The temp forecast busted here in Athens as well - it was supposed to hit 54 this afternoon, and as of 3:00pm KAHN was sitting at 38.
 
South AL Wx said:
NWS BMX just did a FB Live video. They have shifted the accumulation potential a little further north now, as far north as Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to north of Anniston. Calling for up to 1/2" of accumulation, with the warm ground limiting accumulations, and the highest amounts in the higher elevations of east-central Alabama. Montgomery is on the southern edge of the accumulation map.
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Yeah BMX edged back accumulations in the SE part of the CWA
 
Parker said:
If trends continue I’d expect them to slowly ramp up there wording. This whole warm temps limiting accumulations may be real for asphalt and stuff but if we get heavy rates and temps drop then I think we see a strip of 1-4 inches depending on where the snow band sets up. Never can tell. It will be nice to see short range models soon.
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Heavy rates will 100% overcome warm ground temps every single time. March 1993 is a good example of rates overcoming ground temps.
 
Part of the BMX afternoon discussion:

"The biggest change from the overnight forecast is the persistent
trend of the precipitation field to be further north early on
Friday thanks to increasing amplification of the trough axis.
This is obviously problematic because the colder air also resides
further north. So, while areas like the I-20 corridor were
originally NOT in the impact zone, they will now be included.
Metro areas from Tuscaloosa...to Birmingham...to Anniston should
pay particular attention now for the Friday commute. These
overrunning situations typically bias the model `accumulated
precipitation` too far to the south as is, and they also struggle
with the timing - often predicting a later timing than reality.
So, I would certainly suggest to pay particular attention before
venturing out on Friday, as a change from rain to snow will be
likely through the early morning to early afternoon from west to
east and north to south.

Accumulations could remain rather light due to warm ground
temperatures and initial surface temperatures being above
freezing. However, I wouldn`t necessarily write off
impacts...especially to elevated surfaces. The cold airmass that
will be filtering south through the day on Friday into early
Saturday is significant...so freezing spots could be problematic.
As with any snow potential in the South, stay alert to the
changing forecast and be prepared for impacts, even if they remain
minor.

Will hold off on the potential for a winter weather advisory for
the next forecast update."

I can't tell you how many times I've seen overrunning precipitation further north than models predicted, and starting earlier than predicted. BMX may be onto something there for the I-20 corridor.
 
South AL Wx said:
NWS BMX just did a FB Live video. They have shifted the accumulation potential a little further north now, as far north as Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to north of Anniston. Calling for up to 1/2" of accumulation, with the warm ground limiting accumulations, and the highest amounts in the higher elevations of east-central Alabama. Montgomery is on the southern edge of the accumulation map.
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Is the accumulation map out yet:)
 
accu35 said:
Thats how i roll LOl
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Would have no problem getting snow either with those heavy rates

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_41.png
 
If my area or columbia is in on that heavy axis of precip (very heavy) right on the rain/snow line... they are going to get absolutely dumped on per this NAM run.
 
Yeah, that area of red & yellows in SC.. are getting dumped on. 4 inches in Saluda per maps so far. Interesting.
 
Birmingham NWS took away the chance for accumulating snow in Auburn and looking at the NAM map i'm wondering why ?
 
Did anyone post eps breakdown members? If not can you? Thanks.
 
Didn't know where to post this but could one of you guys answer this?

So 850 temps are below zero as shown right here

namconus_T850_seus_29.png


And sfc temps are in the 30s yet it shows rain on the radar

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_28.png


Probably a dumb question considering its the NAM but shouldn't it be showing more snow?
 
malak05 said:
NAM you been kind to me but why do you put me right on edge of snow here in Paulding County you make me very nervous be like your friend the CMC good talk keep up the good work
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A couple years ago it was painful to have the moisture but the cold was within a few miles. This is looking just the opposite, have the temps but will the moisture reach us.
 
nam3km_asnow_us_46.png
Heres the Nam 3km, still snowing after this time frame.
 
Ok total noob here but according to sounding taken around Athens there’s a little warm nose poking in bw 850-700, could that be why it’s showing up as rain? will this be our downfall?
 
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