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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

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I'm dying over here
 
bouncycorn said:
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I'm dying over here
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Might have to deal with 2 separate chances for wintry precipitation at this rate. Also looks to snow in Charlotte as well and some flakes are probably mixing in across other portions of central NC and upstate SC on Thu before the main event arrives. Would be a nice and pleasant surprise to get a 2 for 1 deal out of this
 
Webberweather53 said:
Interesting that precipitation is actually associated with that first wave of low pressure on Thu, would certainly count that as bonus snow
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FFC added that to our forecast this morning. There may be a few good flakes that fly here before the main event. Plus, seeing its only around a day or so out I can trust it a bit more.
 
I believe this will end coming a little further North with time but if it consolidates too much, we have to really worry about temps coming up some too with an inevitable warm nose for most
 
This storm on Thursday pushing precipitation and melting hydrometeors across parts of the SE US is good news for the next system because it pushes the temperatures at the surface back several degrees and without much large scale advection, etc this also gets us to a colder starting point for the next frontal wave on Friday so we have to do less work in the low mid levels to get us to freezing and push the isothermal melting layer to the ground. Hopefully this Thu system continues to trend stronger with more intense precip
 
ForsythSnow said:
FFC added that to our forecast this morning. There may be a few good flakes that fly here before the main event. Plus, seeing its only around a day or so out I can trust it a bit more.
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What main event? FFC gives most of the area a 20-30% chance of light snow/rain showers.. :\
 
I have spent the past hour reading through the thread, as I've been focused on other things because, heck, it's Dec. 5.

I am wary about investing heavily in the NAM this far out, but honestly, we're not "that" far out now if we're looking at Friday.

I saw the Burns post re: GFS (saw a few others on Twitter mention the wonky data with that model, too). Really curious what the Euro shows later this evening.

If I see flakes flying at my house on the second Friday of December, that is a win in my book. Thanks for the great conversation. Maybe we have something here as an early kickoff to winter!

--30--
 
Webberweather53 said:
Might have to deal with 2 separate chances for wintry precipitation at this rate. Also looks to snow in Charlotte as well and some flakes are probably mixing in across other portions of central NC and upstate SC on Thu before the main event arrives. Would be a nice and pleasant surprise to get a 2 for 1 deal out of this
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That would be insane for this time of year, even if it doesn't accumulate.
 
Nam finally moving hr 57. Get ready its gonna be good, if North movement continues
 
Looks like nam wants this event to be a Thursday hit and then a Friday Night hit.
 
In terms of the GFS problems: They're literally only problems with the snowfall accumulation maps (mainly beyond d10)... It's no big deal and not impacting qpf or anyhting like that.
 
Really warm sector at 850mb pushing North! May changeover to rain at the end on this run
 
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