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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

It's was the 18z runs that Sunday where the NW trend became obvious. In this instance the NAM led the way with that. I still remember the morning of that Tuesday that Kirk mellish still blew it.

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This was issued a day and a half before snow pocolypse crippled Atlanta. #NeverForget #FearTheNWTrend
 
It's was the 18z runs that Sunday where the NW trend became obvious. In this instance the NAM led the way with that. I still remember the morning of that Tuesday that Kirk mellish still blew it.

What did Mellish say that morning?

I remember Joanne Feldman nailed it that morning. I remember she said "Schools that decided to be in session today are going to regret it" that morning.
 
Have to like how the euro is setting up this inland maxima of precip across NC. This band might be the catalyst for accumulating snow and flipping rain to snow as the boundary layer warmth is overcome. Have to love these razor thin events like this.
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Shawn provided a reminder of the banter thread, I just deleted a large number of post, nothing personal, but please keep general conversation type of post in banter. Especially as it relates to local mets... thanks!

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For my (central) Midlands of SC friends. The chances for a significant Winter event aren't very good. It looks like the cold air will likely be a "close but no cigar" situation. We will have good moisture, but with the GEFS and EPS not showing any bigger events outside some rain & snow mix around these parts, I officially toss in the towel.
 
For my Midlands of SC friends. The chances for a significant Winter event aren't very good. It looks like the cold air will likely be a "close but no cigar" situation. We will have good moisture, but with the GEFS and EPS not showing any bigger events outside some rain & snow mix around these parts, I officially toss in the towel.

Kind of unusual that there could *possibly* be snow in Montgomery and yet no snow in Columbia/Lexington, usually when MGM gets snow, CAE does too.
 
Have to like how the euro is setting up this inland maxima of precip across NC. This band might be the catalyst for accumulating snow and flipping rain to snow as the boundary layer warmth is overcome. Have to love these razor thin events like this.
f0011060ebdc15aa06685e18860cad19.jpg


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I can't see the image but would we really have it any other way other than razor thin?
 
Kind of unusual that there could *possibly* be snow in Montgomery and yet no snow in Columbia/Lexington, usually when MGM gets snow, CAE does too.
It's a different angle than normal. One model run today showed snow in Pensacola and rain in CAE
 
For my (central) Midlands of SC friends. The chances for a significant Winter event aren't very good. It looks like the cold air will likely be a "close but no cigar" situation. We will have good moisture, but with the GEFS and EPS not showing any bigger events outside some rain & snow mix around these parts, I officially toss in the towel.

Yep...we will be on the outside looking in. Very frustrating to say the least.


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Have to like how the euro is setting up this inland maxima of precip across NC. This band might be the catalyst for accumulating snow and flipping rain to snow as the boundary layer warmth is overcome. Have to love these razor thin events like this.
f0011060ebdc15aa06685e18860cad19.jpg


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That's how we can end up with a pretty decent event, too. As long as you're on the right side of that thin line.
 
Seems to me the models have shown a really sharp cut off line from nw to se. Could issues of convective feedback have anything to do with that? I know that was a problem in February of 2014.
 
That's how we can end up with a pretty decent event, too. As long as you're on the right side of that thin line.
Should be an interesting 3 days. We aren't really fighting a NW inching 850 line instead we are hoping to cool the BL. Something makes me think this could trend more wintry but that's 100% off the cuff and not scientific

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Seems to me the models have shown a really sharp cut off line from nw to se. Could issues of convective feedback have anything to do with that? I know that was a problem in February of 2014.
Jet dynamics and moisture transport argue for a sharp NW edge of precip.
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Really looks like those classic RDU jackpots you mentioned earlier.

There are several other classic cold neutral ENSO/NINA RDU, US HWY 64, or US 1 jackpots I failed to mention that i just now realized in passing... Again this doesnt guarantee we take the brunt of this storm but it gives us just a little bit of hope...

February 1-2 1921
February 1-2 1921 MRCC.png

March 8-10 1932
March 8-10 1932 NC Snowmap.png

December 1-3 1937
December 1-3 1937 MRCC.png


December 15-17 1942
December 15-17 1942.png


January 16-18 1946
January 16-18 1946 MRCC.png


December 26-28 1980
December 26-28 1980 MRCC.png

January 30-31 1981
January 30-31 1981 NC Snowmap.png
 
Well during this lull, guess I'll post BMX's AFD

Thursday/Thursday night:

Southwest flow aloft continues during this period as a trough
axis sharpens over the Southern Plains and Desert Southwest.
Over-running light rain will continue for areas mainly along/south
of I-85 in the axis of mid-level moisture during this period.
Cloudcover and precipitation will keep temperatures in the 40s
for most areas, with highs around 50 possible in West Alabama.
Models are trending a bit further southeast with the northwestern
edge of precipitation, which may stay ahead of the cooler air and
associated wintry precipitation potential through 12z Friday
morning. But for now will keep the slight chance of a rain/snow
mix in after midnight Thursday night from Selma/Montgomery
northeastward to Randolph/Chambers counties for continuity and due
to spread in the ensembles. Temperatures should remain above
freezing in these areas Thursday night, however.

Friday/Friday night:

Models diverge during this period. The GFS is more progressive
with the shortwave, keeping the precipitation south/east of the
forecast area during this period. Meanwhile the ECMWF/Canadian are
slower, keeping the moist southwesterly flow in place longer along
with associated precipitation for areas along and south of I-85.
This is problematic as continued low-level cold air advection
causes 850 and 925 mb temperatures to fall below freezing and
1000-850 mb thicknesses to fall below critical values. Raw output
from these models keeps temperatures in the mid 30s. Therefore,
introduced a rain/snow mix across the southeast counties (mainly
along/south of I-85) for Friday. Temperatures above freezing and
warm ground temperatures would likely greatly inhibit any
accumulation potential, as well as a potential for a warm nose due
to southwest flow aloft. Therefore, confidence in any
accumulation is too low to include in the HWO at this time, also
taking into account climatological unfavorability in these areas
and model disagreement. Dry conditions are expected Friday night
with temperatures falling below freezing across the entire area.
 
Wxsouth has a good writeup and said someone is going to get a suprise out of all this. Said he’s relying on the nam bc gfs and euro struggle with patterns like this
 
From upstream observations is everything going according to what has been modeled? Is there an over performance of the cold air or not?

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He is also a overly bullish snow forecasting weenie, i.e. "The Southern JB".Take all his winter forecasts with a mountain of salt if you want to live.

ARCC, what are your thoughts on this system for us alabama folks? I’ve always respected your opinion and you usually speak facts and don’t go into weenie mode, like I do and many others.
 
I understand you guys don't put much stock in the nam this far out, but living in the deep Deep South, I'm gonna hug it till I squeeze every last drop/flake out of it lol. Hope it shows snow for everybody who wants it. I would be more than happy with flurries living here along the gulf coast.
 
The 00z NAM looks like the secondary s/w over Utah is more amped with the overall stream being held back a little slower/west.
 
ARCC, what are your thoughts on this system for us alabama folks? I’ve always respected your opinion and you usually speak facts and don’t go into weenie mode, like I do and many others.

I think the odds of seeing snow from BHM to Montgomery are pretty decent. I don't expect much accumulation but it will be nice to see it fall. I would like to see the s/w dig more and give us more of the southwest flow aloft. That all said it wouldn't surprise me should this area get nothing but rain.

To sum it up, maybe we see flakes fly, but enjoy what you get for what it is. It's rare to even get that this early.
 
He is also a overly bullish snow forecasting weenie, i.e. "The Southern JB".Take all his winter forecasts with a mountain of salt if you want to live.
I honestly don't understand the rationale behind taking the NAM over the euro esp beyond 48 hours. I know why he's doing it (WAA and the warm nose in the past few winter storms in the Carolinas) but this setup is different than either of those however. The NAM has been way too fast with this storm thus far as subsequent runs are pushing it towards a slower, more realistic reality... Sure I can kind of buy the axis of snow it printed out on the 18z run from NC and points northward as that's in alignment with climatology and the history of Miller As and the northwestward expansion of the precipitation shield is realistic it's likely getting to that solution for the wrong reasons and I would certainly give the Euro and especially the EPS plus a dynamical adjustment for NWP tendencies this far out over the NAM esp outside of 36-48 hrs
 
I honestly don't understand the rationale behind taking the NAM over the euro esp beyond 48 hours. I know why he's doing it (WAA and the warm nose in the past few winter storms in the Carolinas) but this setup is different than either of those however. The NAM has been way too fast with this storm thus far as subsequent runs are pushing it towards a slower, more realistic reality... Sure I can kind of buy the axis of snow it printed out on the 18z run from NC and points northward as that's in alignment with climatology and the history of Miller As and the northwestward expansion of the precipitation shield is realistic it's likely getting to that solution for the wrong reasons and I would certainly give the Euro and especially the EPS plus a dynamical adjustment for NWP tendencies this far out over the NAM esp outside of 36-48 hrs

Personally I only trust the NAM when it shows what I don't want and it's the only one that shows that solution. The stupid thing loves to crush dreams.
 
Look at the SLP pressure lines in the gulf. They're further north on this run. Likely indicating low will initiate further north on this run.
 
Personally I only trust the NAM when it shows what I don't want and it's the only one that shows that solution. The stupid thing loves to crush dreams.
I only trust the NAM inside 36-48 hours otherwise meh, but it's fun to watch it's solutions continuously trend towards more reasonable NWP like the Euro
 
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