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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

malak05 said:
What is going on here????

Tropical Tidbit model output
nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png


Pivotal Weather Model Output at 84
refcmp_ptype.conus.png
Click to expand...

Either TT is underestimating the moisture or PW is overdoing it.
 
I mean these model sites should be deriving from same source right I would believe, it's a lil bit like that back on 12z run not but like this they fit much better TT and Pivotal in the 12z run
 
At this point, we don't know for sure what's going to occur. Once we get into the window of 12-48 hours prior of the time period, then we'll know. Days ago, I said if something is going to give, it's going to give at a unexpected "snap" and that's what may end up happening.
 
malak05 said:
I guess it's just extremely weird

Yes it is per Pivotal... that's extremely weird to see TT and Pivotal showing different outputs like that
Click to expand...
That is very strange looks like an algorithm issue with one of the sites.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Tropical is showing precip reaching the ground. Pivot is showing composite which shows all levels of precip scans. Sounding inspection shows for places like north ATL, the precip is virga at this moment in time per this NAM run.


malak05 said:
What is going on here????

Tropical Tidbit model output
nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png


Pivotal Weather Model Output at 84
refcmp_ptype.conus.png
Click to expand...
 
MotoWeatherman said:
Tropical is showing precip reaching the ground. Pivot is showing composite which shows all levels of precip scans. Sounding inspection shows for places like north ATL, the precip is virga at this moment in time per this NAM run.
Click to expand...
I was wondering about that. I checked my area and the sounding showed a sharp dry slot in the mid levels, but otherwise was humid all above it.
 
MotoWeatherman said:
Tropical is showing precip reaching the ground. Pivot is showing composite which shows all levels of precip scans. Sounding inspection shows for places like north ATL, the precip is virga at this moment in time per this NAM run.
Click to expand...
Hey Moto. Good to see you on here! Do you expect the precip to ramp up the closer we get?
 
MotoWeatherman said:
I do expect things to tick up a bit. But I don't buy the NAM at all...yet... because is by far and away the worst of the guidance beyond 24 hours. I think I've only seen it lead once is sniffing out increased amplification.
Click to expand...
Yeah it's really bad usually when a few days out. At least the Euro is giving us something. I would be surprised if it's more than a dusting at this point.
 
Looking great so far!! Bout time GFS picked it back up!
 
Other models still looks good as of now. Remember this the 18z feeding off old data with not really any new information. Come back oz and see changed either way
 
The GFS is several hours faster with the timing of the precipitation than the Euro. Having it start in earnest the middle of the afternoon on the GFS vs the late evening and overnight hours over much of central NC like what's shown on the ECMWF, gives enough of an edge to places southeast of the Triad like RDU to get snow thru latent heat absorption by melting in the low-mid levels
gfs_ptype_thick_nc_13.png
ecmwf_pr6_slp_T_nc_14.png
 
My area is alreay calling for .5 snow, there trying to be real here LOL.
 
The GFS has been slowing significantly the past 5 runs, looking more & more like the Euro wrt timing only as we've continued approached verification. It's probably important for NC that this trend continues and timing of the heaviest precipitation is pushed back til morning
Unknown.gif
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Spann just posted his latest blog- calling for a shot of light snow per Euro basically along and south I-59 till about Montgomery & points north and east to Atlanta.

Doesn’t expect much in the way of accumulation.
Click to expand...
Its funny because my area has showing good snow with the models. Location, SW Al.
 
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