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Wintry Winter Mischief For Upper SE 3/12/18

The SE Canada vortex was much more extensive on this run and suppressed our s/w and practically into oblivion, our s/w also was weaker which delays barotropic energy generation, but it's also the NAM after 48-60 hours so meh (for now).

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Nomanslandva said:
While we cry over the NAM and wait for ICON to save us...18z swiss View attachment 4407
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Honestly, this looks about right for this storm in my opinion. I don't believe anyone SE of RDU will see anything more than a few flakes mixed in with the cold rain. Just not enough cold air for this system to work with. Frustrating to finally get a good track with a storm and not have the cold air needed for it. Seen this play out several times here. Hope I'm wrong but this is what I am expecting.
 
I’ll cash out now.
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The 0z UKMET went ballistic and has a bomb off the Delmarva in 72 hours. The discrepancy between NWP models just 2.5-3 days out is nuts
 
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mrdaddyman said:
Only thing missing is the cold air. 2m above freezing.

View attachment 4412
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Many March snows for RDU have 2m’s above freezing. In fact, I think the mean surface temp was around 35 for 1-3” March snowfalls for RDU sample size was 20 events if I recall correctly. Took a look at this back in feb when I was posting composites. Makes sense as surface temps struggle in March in general.


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How can precip not be farther back with low placements and strength!?:p
 
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:weenie:Gonna be some snow TV outside the mountains, that’s about it ! The new GFS is so cray!
 
Omgd give me the 12z gfs I’ll have no issues getting into Maryland seeing as how the gfs is so much slower now


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Clayton said:
It's crazy how the NW trend just came out of nowhere after trending more suppressed a few days ago up until now. Wow hahaha
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Not going to say any names, I just don’t think some mets and weenies understand the limitations in NWP predictability in situations like this with multiple s/w interactions and how minute changes at the synoptic scale can translate into very significant wholesale alterations at the surface just a few days out. Even something as simple as initializing only a modestly more intense s/w can have massive impacts because vorticity growth is non linear. This also means as a wave grows it becomes more efficient at modifying the bgd flow and drawing available potential energy from it which affects the evolution of other waves embedded in the flow (and can the impact of each individual wave on other disturbances be diagnosed with piecewise PV inversion)
 
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The gfs run , just gave DT a pants tightening experience! :weenie:
 
Webberweather53 said:
Not going to say any names, I just don’t think some mets and weenies understand the limitations in NWP predictability in situations like this with multiple s/w interactions and how minute changes at the synoptic scale can translate into very significant wholesale alterations at the surface just a few days out. Even something as simple as initializing only a modestly more intense s/w can have massive impacts because vorticity growth is non linear. This also means as a wave grows it becomes more efficient at modifying the bgd flow and drawing available potential energy from it which affects the evolution of other waves embedded in the flow (and can the impact of each individual wave on other disturbances be diagnosed with piecewise PV inversion)
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Very Ciceronian and quite a great post, Webb!
 
Wow these recent model runs have really got me wondering if accumulating snow is possible here tomorrow night. I bet there's going to be some surprises with this one. Of all my years living here I still haven't got that surprise snow storm. The kind where they are predicting a half inch or maybe one and you end up with 4 or more. It's gotta happen sometime so maybe this is the one. I saw the local news mentioning snow and possibly up to a half an inch in north and northeast Tennessee.
 
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