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Wintry Winter Mischief For Upper SE 3/12/18

Forget the snowhole! I'm all in on the ICON. Also, you know the tag is tropical, right? :p
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I'd like to see some snow, even if it doesn't accumulate. Would be better than rain.
 
Todays ICON trends are impressive. I will be in Northern VA on Sunday evening so would like to see southern ULL go neutral and get captured. icon_z500_vort_us_fh69_trend.gif
 
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The deeper snows this far South (CAE) on the Icon are fantasy. I do not see how the surface layer is going to be close to allowing snowfall that could potentially even accumulate on top of the tallest trees.

Graupel could be in the cards with a robust ULL swinging through though.

Back in November 1st of 2014, this area did experience quite an impressive snow squall that accumulated. Different season, different time.
 
whatalife said:
You and I both know that ain’t happening...SMH!


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I said it wasn't happening in November of 2014 too. This is a different scenario & season though. I just can't get excited, but I was not excited then either. Stranger things have happened, but my gut says "meh."

Looking at this seasons snow maps, the last run of the ICON finally gives areas that have been blanked snow. Of course that would happen just to keep me from complaining I saw no accumulation all season.
 
The fact that there is even the slightest chance of snow in the south in Mid March with a September sun angle is borderline ridiculous.
 
Looking at other modeling such as the NAM & Canadian, GFS, the ULL really isn't a factor like something the ICON shows around here.

This far South, I watched the icon over do things all season for my back yard.
 
Shawn said:
I said it wasn't happening in November of 2014 too. This is a different scenario & season though. I just can't get excited, but I was not excited then either. Stranger things have happened, but my gut says "meh."

Looking at this seasons snow maps, the last run of the ICON finally gives areas that have been blanked snow. Of course that would happen just to keep me from complaining I saw no accumulation all season.
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Yep. Totally agree.


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SoutheastRidge said:
The fact that there is even the slightest chance of snow in the south in Mid March with a September sun angle is borderline ridiculous.
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How many snows have there been in September compared to March? Probably way more. It's not that ridiculous if you take into consideration where actually has a chance at accumulation. I'm, just looking for maybe a flake at most if given the chance. If I don't get that, at least I hope DC gets no more snow or nothing.
 
ForsythSnow said:
How many snows have there been in September compared to March? Probably way more. It's not that ridiculous if you take into consideration where actually has a chance at accumulation. I'm, just looking for maybe a flake at most if given the chance. If I don't get that, at least I hope DC gets no more snow or nothing.
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I really wished this event could have been 1 week earlier! We would have easily doubled actual snowfall! That Daylight savings time is a killer!:cool:
 
Figures that when I'm not there, NC gets a snow chance lol. I'm crossing my fingers for all of you though :)

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SD said:
Not really, looking back there are numerous decent to large events that have occurred from this date to April 1

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Yeah I know. I just find it amazing that it is able to snow with such a high sun angle. I know sun angle isnt everything but its darn impressive. I mean just imagine a September sun angle and then imagine it snowing. It truly boggles my mind.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Yeah I know. I just find it amazing that it is able to snow with such a high sun angle. I know sun angle isnt everything but its darn impressive. I mean just imagine a September sun angle and then imagine it snowing. It truly boggles my mind.
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The biggest contributor to this apparent discrepancy is the fact that oceans comprise approximately 3/4ths of earth's surface and because water has a high heat capacity/large thermal inertia it tends to lag solar input by several weeks or so. For example, while the atmosphere is receiving an amount of radiation equivalent to late September, the oceans may "think" it's really November and vis versa after the peak in radiation near the solstice.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The biggest contributor to this apparent discrepancy is the fact that oceans comprise approximately 3/4ths of earth's surface and because water has a high heat capacity/large thermal inertia it tends to lag solar input by several weeks or so. For example, while the atmosphere is receiving an amount of radiation equivalent to late September, the oceans may "think" it's really November and vis versa after the peak in radiation near the solstice.
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Same with September and October 'canes.
Great post, Webb!
Best!
Phil
 
DF5AA64D-B09E-4C68-A73C-4AE63A2773E9.png Love the 18z gfs ! Gives a Roxboro special, and basically screws DC with light snow and zilch for NE!
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm fine with that. Having a stronger system would likely bring a lot of cold air around on the back plus precipitation. I just hope the ICON is right, though it's not been the best this winter. With fluctuation and the models not being able to pin down the solution, anything is still possible.
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Almost anything ... LOL ... :confused:
 
Y'all are slack this evening, no mention of happy hour Lol
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SoutheastRidge said:
Yeah I know. I just find it amazing that it is able to snow with such a high sun angle. I know sun angle isnt everything but its darn impressive. I mean just imagine a September sun angle and then imagine it snowing. It truly boggles my mind.
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In September there hasn't been cold bottled up north for the last 3-4 months. September is completely different then march.
 
5ABCA832-5EB6-48C5-B01B-55B503C8764B.png It is March , and close to the 25th anniversary of “ the one” here’s the pressures from that storm! Pretty amazing
 
Just saw Jons tweet of the refs for Sunday night. Few decent hits at rdu with a mean of 2. I'd take that

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SD said:
Just saw Jons tweet of the refs for Sunday night. Few decent hits at rdu with a mean of 2. I'd take that

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In reality accounting for melting, warm ground temps, ratios, etc. this is probably more like almost all members have snow flying in the air near RDU and some of them w/ accumulations approaching 1-2" but in any case I will gladly take it. Suffering through mid-upper 30s and heavy cold rain is no bueno.
 
SD said:
Just saw Jons tweet of the refs for Sunday night. Few decent hits at rdu with a mean of 2. I'd take that

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Yeah if I lived near the Va border I'd be mildly excited....

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