Let’s see it don’t hold back
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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
SimeonNC
Member
I was being hyperbolic lol. My apologies
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Just wanted to clear that up because the last few pages of comments @ me would argue I was calling for a megatorch in the SE US because I'm a "warmingsta" or whatever other nonsensical, derogatory, and inaccurate term people like to label me as.
SimeonNC
Member
You're good lol, I was mainly thinking of a lot of posts I've seen over at Americanwx when I made that post.
As for the argument, I have no skin in it and honestly arguing over stuff like this is pointless.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
GEFS Extended and ECMWF Weeklies showing a period of western troughing after the first week of January's strong +PNA.
This would be a rather welcome sight in the long run imho. All the barren ground over the Midwest + Great Lakes would get filled in with a deep and cold snow pack, setting the stage for a potential run at some true big dog potential for the US East Coast near the end of January into February.
This would be a rather welcome sight in the long run imho. All the barren ground over the Midwest + Great Lakes would get filled in with a deep and cold snow pack, setting the stage for a potential run at some true big dog potential for the US East Coast near the end of January into February.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The weekly snow swaths from both of these model suites reinforces this point. While it would hamper things in the shorter-term, we'd be sitting pretty in the long run during our most favorable climo window (late Jan-Feb) if we can get just a little bit of western-central US centric troughing for a week or so.
Already talking about the end of Jan beginning of Feb. Dang. I get tired of having a 2 week window at winter.
J1C1111
Member
Unfortunately, that's the pain of of winter in the southeast almost every year it seems and it's getting worse each year. Hang in there. I know your pain. We have such a short window every year outside the mountains. I've never went 2 years in a row in my 41 years living here since 81 without any snow. Will see. Always a waiting game to time everything up just right.
tennessee storm
Member
Yeah so true …. Welcome to the south . Being a big weather freak as I am , I love winter storms just as much as a severe wx outbreak . I just have become jaded with winter last few years
NCSNOW
Member
6z Operational GFS joins the CFS choir. Pattern flip 28th. Snow in NC 29th and a big dog rolling in 1/1-1/2. The Bull City Ping alert from yesterday is getting louder. Maybe 1/29-1/7 is legit. We shall see over the next week or so.
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In the shorter range (for mid-day Christmas), the 6z GFS keeps the temps for the SE near normal (slightly below) while others to the west experience a warm Christmas.
Euro and Canadian are similar with slight warmer temps in the SE.
Euro and Canadian are similar with slight warmer temps in the SE.
Ron Burgundy
Member
Big dog for the I-40 crowd. Us I-20 folks just get wet verbatim. Long time to go tho
Yeah a big dog for the northeast. 90 percent of this board looked like rain to me.
Have to watch the evolution of ridging initially across Central Canada that begins to retrograde as we get into Christmas and new years. If we can get enough amplitude there we can get some cross polar flow and start establishing some cold into the Hudson Bay region that could be enough to tap into our region around or after the new year. The 6z gfs pinched off a ridge north of barrow and started the process with a nice string of cold highs through Canada into the US
The eps wasn't as enthusiastic
Be careful with the means and the constant blue heights and blue 850s over the SE, the pattern is likely to be somewhat active so that spreads on the means and looks super impressive but the reality is likely more choppy. With no good suppression mechanism you have to have concen in that 12/27-1/5 period that things amp and lift so I would think initial or ending winter precipitation is favored minus a better chance of an all snow event from OKC to Mem to Ric.
We probably hit the apex of this first shot of winter 1/5-12 especially if we can get a tall western ridge and draw cold/pv into the Hudson Bay region. This would be imo when we could get a significant system for a larger part of the region.
As retrogression continues the pattern should start to transition to some level of trough to our west and maybe a SER reflection, this is fine. We are likely to start going back into a more blocky better pattern 1/25-2/1.
I still think things are going as expected aside from some timing differences from my own thoughts.
The eps wasn't as enthusiastic
Be careful with the means and the constant blue heights and blue 850s over the SE, the pattern is likely to be somewhat active so that spreads on the means and looks super impressive but the reality is likely more choppy. With no good suppression mechanism you have to have concen in that 12/27-1/5 period that things amp and lift so I would think initial or ending winter precipitation is favored minus a better chance of an all snow event from OKC to Mem to Ric.
We probably hit the apex of this first shot of winter 1/5-12 especially if we can get a tall western ridge and draw cold/pv into the Hudson Bay region. This would be imo when we could get a significant system for a larger part of the region.
As retrogression continues the pattern should start to transition to some level of trough to our west and maybe a SER reflection, this is fine. We are likely to start going back into a more blocky better pattern 1/25-2/1.
I still think things are going as expected aside from some timing differences from my own thoughts.
packfan98
Moderator
Looks like a good setup for a classic Southern Slider...
Ten day departures
tennessee storm
Member
And it begin lol…. Very true . We should be used to it at least