All 3 ens, show some level of retraction of the GOAK low now 
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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Itryatgolf
Member
It looks like a ridge is trying to develop over Alaska or retrograting canadian ridge west imo
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Wasn't sure what thread to post this in, but I finally put together a preliminary freezing rain frequency climatology map together for NC using estimates from a collection storms that encompass the last 31 years.
The Triad area is the freezing rain capital of NC & arguably the SE US + southern-mid Atlantic as a whole.
NC Ice Storm Maps (1992-2023)
The Triad area is the freezing rain capital of NC & arguably the SE US + southern-mid Atlantic as a whole.
NC Ice Storm Maps (1992-2023)
Jrips2710
Member
I would kill for someone to make these nice maps for Georgia. I know you’ve done it for the entire SE a couple of times.
Great work man!
It would be almost impossible with as bad as the record keeping is in this state.
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BHS1975
Member
Those numbers are dropping fast as even tree toppers are non existent now.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
These values are likely a slight underestimate of reality, as there are many nickel + dime events I probably haven't found yet.
Itryatgolf
Member
Go check out JB video today if you haven't already. He mentions about a forecaster competition that is on his page that any good forecaster, like yourself, can enter.
Exactly what you want to see. Ridge backing up towards the N.W territories and AK, and the TPV in Baffin Bay starting to sink south 
Really good agreement too on both the GEFS and GEPS as well. Also the process that starts it really kinda gets going next weekend so it’s not exactly in fantasy land.
Yep. Think the #1 thing to watch and hope not for is another momentum surge in the jet that puts us back in square one, or keeps the GOAK vortex in place with the can block
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Absolutely. Fortunately, what we’re seeing on the ensembles is pretty much following how you would expect a moderate to strong El Nino to evolve.
ATLwxfan
Member
It seems to verify warmth pretty well and do lousy at predicting cold. Thats my weenie comment.
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ATLwxfan
Member
Yep. Patience.
Not really. This week looks to be the peak of the Pacific air getting pushed into North America. It looks like the few days around Christmas is going to be well above average… especially with overnight lows.
NCSNOW
Member
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Greensboro sitting at 1.9 AN. Should be right at average by late week. You are correct next weekend is AN, but Dec 28,29,30,31 have a long shot to offset that. Still not the toaster that was being advertised, thats for sure. And I was one of them.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
No.
Most ensembles show near neutral temperatures for the remainder of the month. Unless GSO averages -2F or less the rest of the way, that's not happening.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Bet we end up closer to normal than we are now..... Second half will average less than +2 almost a garrantee.