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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

griteater said:
It’s like we were getting some good looks on the Ext models, then they went away…and now coming back some
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It doesn't seem uncommon for that to happen. It will be nice when we get that showing up inside of 10 days.
 
Speaking of flip-flopping.

We went from this eye candy yesterday:
ps2png-worker-commands-64f9dd744-qd67b-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-UGLK0V.png

To this can-kicking suite today.
ps2png-worker-commands-64f9dd744-qd67b-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-GO7xY_.png

Not that there are any guarantees that an early SSWE will make this winter epic, but I'd really like to see a full-blown reversal in this El Nino year just to see what happens.

Hopefully, things flip back strongly again tomorrow.
 
griteater said:
It’s like we were getting some good looks on the Ext models, then they went away…and now coming back some
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Models can’t handle big pattern changes well! Was it 2018, they went back and forth of it getting very cold after Christmas, then it finally dialed in on a very cold stretch in early Jan and a good snow/ice event for most?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Models can’t handle big pattern changes well! Was it 2018, they went back and forth of it getting very cold after Christmas, then it finally dialed in on a very cold stretch in early Jan and a good snow/ice event for most?
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Yes, I do kind of recall it going down that way. Jan 2018 was pretty epic overall
 
Tarheel1 said:
Models can’t handle big pattern changes well! Was it 2018, they went back and forth of it getting very cold after Christmas, then it finally dialed in on a very cold stretch in early Jan and a good snow/ice event for most?
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I remember after that early December 2017 storm, models were indicating that it would be fairly mild through most of the month, but then started flipping back around mid month and when it got cold a couple days after Christmas, it stayed locked pretty much till about the last week of January.
 
griteater said:
Dec 16: thoughts on the pattern ahead...

BP6xV76.png
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So essentially, the jet is too strong/east, and as it retracts past the sweet spot, we'll have a week of favorable pattern, then it retracts too far and puts the trough back out west where it loves to be. :(. Seems about right. Really good parameters grit to understand where we are though, thank you.
 
I know this isn't the most popular opinion on here, but I'd actually like to see the trough go out into the west-central US for a little bit during the first half or so of January then come eastward late month & then we can really try to cash in after that.


It's in our best interest to at least fill in all the bare ground over the Upper Midwest & Great Lakes before we take a shot a big dog. It'll take some decent central-western troughing to make that happen in a meaningful way.



plot_anom_sdep.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
I know this isn't the most popular opinion on here, but I'd actually like to see the trough go out into the west-central US for a little bit during the first half or so of January then come eastward late month & then we can really try to cash in after that.


It's in our best interest to at least fill in all the bare ground over the Upper Midwest & Great Lakes before we take a shot a big dog. It'll take some decent central-western troughing to make that happen in a meaningful way.



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Selfishly I would love the trof in the west for early to mid Jan since going to Tahoe mid Jan for a week. I would like to see the trof swing underneath and into the SE. and then let it crash into the east after that.
 
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