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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

48% of GEFS Ext members with SSW in early Jan period on tonight's run. Highest I've seen so far this winter for that product. Could help to shake things up down the line

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The 0z CFS looks way better. Start seeing things getting more favorable 28th and improving out through 1st week of January. Nice to see Cold Canadian air funnel right down to us. Several better looking images than this one on the 28th, so maybe the original time stamps the Grit o meter had weren't to far off. I'm still sore about whats coming this Sun/Mon perfect track on one of the shortest days of the year and we gonna whiff because no cold air. Im in the camp that we should get several more shots at a Miller A riding up the SE coast thanks to el nino, so maybe we can have some cold on hand next time.


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I don't see this being anywhere near a strong Nino but more of a very weak one or even a La Nada. The pattern is not conducive here for snow until after Christmas which is typical of a weak El Nino. I would look for the pattern to be more favorable for us shortly after the New Year and on in to Feb. but winter will cut off abruptly after the 15th or so of Feb. It looks to me that we will go into a La Nina sometime next spring but how strong it will be is an open question.
 
Stone Cold Heel said:
I honestly don't think the programming can handle our climate correctly.
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It's a lot more advanced than that. The higher resolution we go, the worse things compound from initial forecasting errors. I'd like to see better initialization across the board.
 
griteater said:
Euro Weeklies retrograde the pattern nicely thru Alaska, then dump the trough in the west. Doesn't really look right, but we are good at fail boats and train wrecks

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I told some people yesterday my fear rolling this forward is the AK ridge going up but the trough in the west staying there in the means. Here we are today. Damn.

I don't think that pattern is terrible but it becomes a timing game and miller b party without north Atlantic cooperation
 
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griteater said:
Euro Weeklies retrograde the pattern nicely thru Alaska, then dump the trough in the west. Doesn't really look right, but we are good at fail boats and train wrecks

f8cE2cf.gif
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Yeah the Aleutian low just kinda fades into oblivion, and with a strong jet you wouldn't think that be the case, especially in a Nino. That suckers going to be somewhere. But then again, western trough is our speciality.
 
griteater said:
Euro Weeklies retrograde the pattern nicely thru Alaska, then dump the trough in the west. Doesn't really look right, but we are good at fail boats and train wrecks

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The weeklies change just about every run so I wouldn't put much stock in it yet. If it gets within the day 10 timeframe, then that's a different story
 
Itryatgolf said:
Is that because the mjo may be getting or going into 8-2?
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I'd say the biggest thing is getting the mega Pac Jet ext to back off some. Don't see any big +EAMT events in late Dec / early Jan as of now, so that would help a lot. Not sure how much impact the MJO will have. It may be more important that it's not in P3-4-5-6 than it actually being in 8-1-2. We want the Pac jet to extend some west to east, just not all the way to California. Upcoming weakened strat state helps some as well
 
griteater said:
I'd say the biggest thing is getting the mega Pac Jet ext to back off some. Don't see any big +EAMT events in late Dec / early Jan as of now, so that would help a lot. Not sure how much impact the MJO will have. It may be more important that it's not in P3-4-5-6 than it actually being in 8-1-2. We want the Pac jet to extend some west to east, just not all the way to California. Upcoming weakened strat state helps some as well
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I would like to see a -EAMT if that could help us to get a more sustainable colder pattern or anything else with some durability
 
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